• NFL: Colts vs Broncos - Preview & Expert Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Bronocos: Thursday Night Football Analyst Preview

    Week 15 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Indianapolis as the Colts host the Denver Broncos in a matchup that really has no impact on the postseason as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The two teams are a combined 2-15 straight up (SU) this year, and 4-13 against the spread (ATS).

    Not an easy one to pick when you've got two sub-par teams, but let's take a closer look at where the value is in this matchup.

    Vegas Odds

    There hasn't been a whole lot of movement since the lines opened, just about a half-point here and there depending on where you're looking. The Broncos opened as 3-point favorites before settling in at -2.5 in most books while the total had a similar half-point drop from 41.

    Betting Line: Denver Broncos -2.5
    Total: 40.5

    At the time of publication, 58 percent of the public were laying the points and taking the Broncos.

    52-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -Indy's last five games have gone UNDER the total.
    -The Broncos ended a 7-game ATS losing streak vs the Colts when they played last season.
    -The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven games when the Colts are home underdogs.

    What to Watch For

    Can Siemian Make It Happen?: Colts QB Trevor Siemian had his best game of the season last week against the New York Jets, throwing for 200 yards and 1 TD. That brings his TD-to-INT ratio on the season to 12-to-13. Not too surprising given the Colts' struggles at the QB spot, but WR Demaryius Thomas has just four TDs on the season, and zero games with over 100 yards.

    Siemian is projected to finish with 229 yards and 1 TD. Thomas is projected to finish with 47 yards on 4 receptions.

    Colts Offense Often a No-Show: The offensive side of the ball has been absolutely horrendous this year for Indy. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game, and Brissett has been average at best. Well, maybe slightly above average since he does have 11 TDs to 7 INTs on the season.

    Brissett is projected to finish with 255 yards and 1 TD. He averages 0.6 INTs per sim, so there's a pretty good chance he gets one in the game, but would take the UNDER on any prop bet that's over 1.

    Analyst's Pick
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