Written by Rohit Ghosh
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AFC East – 2016 NFL Division Preview
New England Patriots
Backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets to throw to one of the best receiving corps in the league to start the season as the New England Patiots patiently wait for QB Tom Brady to return from his four-game suspension. Only these Patriots could lose Brady for that long and feel this confident.
They're the AFC East favorite and there's really not much insight needed. Their offense is well-rounded, their defense is strong in the back-seven, and the return of RB Dion Lewis adds a different level of explosiveness to the offense. New England's run offense struggled after his absence starting Week 14 last season.
What do the sims say? They'll be fine for their postseason goals, but AccuScore doesn't expect the Pats to get close to 11 wins. New England averages 9.3 wins in season sims.
Miami Dolphins
Many expected the Dolphins to be one of the best teams in the league last season, but the regression of QB Ryan Tannehill and a lack of consistency on defense put a damper on any such hopes. This season, all eyes will be on Tannehill to right the ship - without a significant improvement in his place, the Dolphins will have a repeat of 2015.
Adam Gase has a reputation for helping QBs, so again, there's enough hope, but the lack of options on the roster for him reminds us the Dolphins should finish in the bottom third of the league again.
Keep an eye on second-year player DeVante Parker, whose emergence late last season could be timed out perfectly if Gase in fact does get Tannehill firing on all cylinders in Year 5.
What do the sims say? AccuScore sims have Miami finishing the regular season second in the AFC East; the Dolphins win about 7.8 games in season sims, suggesting a pick on the OVER (7).
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New York Jets
Todd Bowles had an impressive first-year campaign with the Jets in 2015 and there are legitimate playoff hopes as we head into the 2016 season.
With WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, the Jets have one of the best 1-2 punches at that spot. They both finished last season with double-digit TDs, and will be expected to repeat those kinds of performances. We'll see if Devin Smith can stay healthy, but a lack of options at TE or on the ground make Marshall and Decker's jobs that much more important.
The Jets run defense will be a strength the entire season, led by Muhammad Wilkerson. Sophomore Leonard Williams (defensive line), an improved Lorenzo Mauldin and linebacker Darron Lee should all sprinkle in contributions weekly to keep the Jets competitive.
What do the sims say? Another tough one here, but the data suggests staying away from this wager opportunity. The total is set at 7.5 in Vegas, and they win exactly that many games on average in the simulations. They're projected to finish No. 3 in the AFC East behind the Pats and Dolphins.
Buffalo Bills
Rex Ryan enters his second season with Buffalo and it legitimately looks like he has the roster necessary to succeed with his style. There's talent all over the roster, with a backfield duo of LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams that should make it a nightmare for opposing defenses.
McCoy hasn't been the most consistent in recent memory, but he still finished last season as a top-20 back in terms of rushing grade, according to Pro Football Focus.
WR Sammy Watkins had an impressive sophomore season in 2015-2016, dominating the second half of the season. The problem, however, is Buffalo is lacking in options after Watkins, with Robert Woods yet to make much of an impact.
Either way, the Bills' season will be determined by the play of QB Tyrod Taylor - he actually had better passing grades than Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning last season. We know he can do it with his legs, but the success in the air was a nice throw-in at this point of his career.
What do the sims say? Vegas has Buffalo's season win total at 8 and AccuScore would take the UNDER on that. The Bills wins about 7.3 games in season sims.
