Week 2 delivered the kind of balanced card bettors crave: moneylines kept paying, spreads ticked up, and totals swung toward select Overs after an Under-leaning Week 1. Here’s the clean read for the slate ending Sept. 15:
- Moneyline: 12–4 (+3.80 units on flat 1u staking)
- Side Value (price-based value tag): 6–8–2
- Against the Spread (ATS): 10–6
- Totals (O/U): 9–7
If you’re building a Week 3 card off these signals, the theme is straightforward: keep moneylines as the anchor, cherry-pick spreads where the number truly moves, and target totals only when the projection clears a sensible edge.
Moneyline: profit, again—especially in tight calls and live spots
A second straight 12–4 week pushes the moneyline profile firmly into “ride it” territory. The wins weren’t just chalk cruising; several of the best calls came where edges are hardest to exploit:
- Close-to-coin-flip hits such as Atlanta over Minnesota and Tampa Bay over Houston came through, balancing out tight losses like Philadelphia at Kansas City and San Francisco at New Orleans. In near-even games, taking the winner at the price rather than paying for hooks continues to be the cleaner expression of edge.
- Conviction favorites did their job: Green Bay handled Washington, Baltimore buried Cleveland, Detroit rolled Chicago, Buffalo and the Rams both won with margin, and Arizona took care of business at home. These results kept the money column steadily green even as a few value-tagged underdogs didn’t land.
Bottom line for bettors: the moneyline is carrying—two weeks in a row. Keep it central to the card, especially in matchups grading between ~48–54% on pregame win probability where the price, not the hook, is the thing you’re beating.
ATS: 10–6 with the right kind of wins
The spread column moved from break-even last week to 10–6 in Week 2, and the type of covers matters:
- Numbers that cross key bands or flip the favorite were the sweet spot. Examples:
- Indianapolis catching a token +1.5 but rated as a small favorite by the projection—won 29–28.
- Atlanta −3 with an internal number around +1 (i.e., the model had the other side favored)—won 22–6.
- Tampa Bay −2.5 with a projection closer to TB −3—won 20–19.
- Classic “market’s not big enough” covers also showed up: Green Bay −3 (proj −7), Cincinnati −3.5 (proj −5), Detroit −6.5 (proj −8), Buffalo −5.5 (proj −9), Rams −5.5 (proj −9), Chargers −3.5 (proj −8)—the kind of incremental advantages that grind out a season.
Where did ATS stumble? Mostly on larger perceived edges where the favorite simply didn’t match the projection in-game (Dallas vs. Giants, Pittsburgh vs. Seattle, Philadelphia at Kansas City). The lesson isn’t to avoid favorites; it’s to prioritize edges that move through key numbers or change who should be favored rather than chasing big-looking gaps for their own sake.
Actionable rule for Week 3: lean into spreads when your number slides across ±1 to ±3 or adds 2–4 points of cushion around 3 and 7. That’s where the Week 2 winners clustered.
Totals: 9–7, with Overs doing the heavy lifting
Week 2 totals flipped the Week 1 script. The 9–7 finish leaned into Overs where the projection sat 2–6 points above the market:
- Baltimore–Cleveland Over 45.5 (landed 58).
- Cincinnati–Jacksonville Over 49.5 (landed 58).
- Detroit–Chicago Over 46 (landed 73).
- Dallas–Green Bay Over 45 didn’t get there in a 77-point shootout only because the lean was to the Under; that’s the sort of off-script outcome you live with in a single week.
There were still clean Unders—Buffalo–Jets Under 47 landed at 40—but the week’s profile clearly rewarded higher projected totals vs. the market. The median edge on winning totals sat around +2 points, with several clearing +4 to +6.
Actionable rule for Week 3:
- Overs: target when the projection is ≥ +2.0 points above the posted total.
- Unders: keep the threshold stricter (≥ −3.0 points) until tempo and red-zone efficiency stabilize league-wide.
That two-tier filter would have captured most of the Week 2 winners while trimming the thinnest, no-man’s-land plays.
What the “value tag” said—and how to use it
The price-based Side Value marker finished 6–8–2 this week. Translation: plenty of moneyline winners were fair-to-overpriced favorites (they still won, but weren’t value by the strict price test), while a chunk of positive-EV dogs didn’t land inside a 16-game slate. That’s normal week-to-week variance; the fix is not to second-guess the tag but to size by it:
- Keep flat 1u as your baseline stake.
- Use fractional Kelly (e.g., ⅓–½ Kelly) only when the value tag is clear and the price is good.
- Avoid inflating bets on big favorites just because projections like them; that’s where value evaporates fastest.
The moneyline column still booked +3.80 units on the week despite the softer SV ledger—proof that directional accuracy + price discipline is the right pairing over a season.
Fast hits & teaching moments
- Statement win: Detroit 52–21 Chicago — projections and market both leaned Lions; the internal number simply said the spread wasn’t big enough.
- Efficient edges: Green Bay over Washington, Buffalo over the Jets, Rams over Titans, Chargers over Raiders — straightforward reads, no gymnastics required.
- Tight-rope walk: Eagles at Chiefs and 49ers at Saints reminded us that coin flips…flip. You’ll live with a 2–2 split in that band when the rest of the board is this sturdy.
- Totals clarity: Week 2 rewarded pro-Over edges of +2 to +6; Week 1 had rewarded robust Unders. The through-line is edge size, not team names—keep the threshold.
What to carry into Week 3
- Keep moneylines as the hub. Two straight weeks of 12–4 speak loudly. In near-even games, the ML remains the cleanest way to monetize a small simulation edge.
- Be picky with spreads. Favor bets that cross key bands or flip the favorite, not just the biggest raw gap. That’s precisely how Week 2 hit 10–6.
- Use a two-tier totals filter. Overs when the projection is ≥ +2, Unders when it’s ≥ −3. This keeps you on the right side of the market’s most sensitive errors without chasing thin reads.
- Stake to price. Let the value tag decide when to scale beyond 1u. A couple of mispriced dogs will swing a month; don’t let overpriced chalk do the same in the wrong direction.
Bottom line
Week 2 read like a professional card: moneylines cashed (12–4, +3.80u), spreads improved (10–6) by targeting numbers that matter, and totals turned (9–7) with clear, projection-led Overs. Keep that blueprint intact—ML as the anchor, ATS where the number really moves, totals only with real cushion—and you’ll head into Week 3 with a portfolio built to compound rather than chase.
