Three years ago you could pencil in Kansas City by habit and argue about wild cards. Not anymore.
The West enters 2025 with four teams that have rethought who they are: the Chiefs reloaded around yards-after-catch while tightening their front; the Chargers are doubling down on a Harbaugh identity even as injuries reshape the line; the Broncos return an elite defense and a sophomore quarterback with answers; and the Raiders have hit the reset button under Pete Carroll.
Underneath the noise, the updated numbers give us a clean starting grid. AccuScore makes Kansas City the likeliest champion (division title probability 53.68%, playoff probability 82.55%, and an expected 11 wins versus the Vegas total of 11.5). Los Angeles is the market/model disagreement team—AccuScore’s more optimistic (10 wins; playoffs 64.86%, division 26.31%) than Vegas (9.5 wins; make the playoffs -130 ≈ 56.52%; win the West +350 ≈ 22.22%). Denver sits in the “coin-flip-but-real” tier (9 expected wins vs a 9.5 line; playoffs 53.75% vs 56.52% implied at -130; division 18.04% vs 26.67% implied at +275). Las Vegas is still the long shot (model playoffs 10.13%, division 1.97%, expected 7 wins vs a 6.5 line; market playoff 22.73% at +340, division 6.25% at +1500).
But September football isn’t solved by spreadsheets. It’s solved by protection and pressure, early-down boredom, red-zone answers, and how a handful of coaches deploy their difference-makers. Here’s how the West stacks when you stitch the numbers to the people and the deals.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Perpetual Contender—With Different Ways to Win the Middle Eight
The big swing
Kansas City enters 2025 with its core truths intact—Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo—but with a very intentional pivot at the edges of the roster. The offense’s bet is on YAC and spacing—Xavier Worthy as the field stretcher, Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster as volume outlets—while a first-round tackle (Josh Simmons) future-proofs protection. Defense remains anchored by Chris Jones with extra rotation inside.
The coach’s hand
Reid’s sequencing and Mahomes’ pocket mobility still create the league’s best second-reaction floor, but the day-to-day identity is more controlled than the 2018–20 fireworks. Expect RPO glances, perimeter screens to punish two-high, and dagger concepts that pull safeties the wrong way just as Isiah Pacheco forces lighter boxes.
Key transactions that actually matter
Trades
- Reacquired DT Derrick Nnadi from the Jets (late-August pick swap/sixth-for-seventh mechanics) to fortify early-down run defense.
- Dealt WR Skyy Moore to the 49ers (late-August day-3 pick swap), consolidating snaps while Rashee Rice serves a six-game suspension.
Free agents
- Veteran WR adds headlining the 2025 receiver room: Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster to support the YAC-centric plan.
- (Context) S Justin Reid departed; back-end responsibility shifts even more to Trent McDuffie and a young CB group.
Draft
- Round 1: OT Josh Simmons — cornerstone tackle of the future, expected to play early.
- Day 2–3: IDL Omar Norman-Lott, EDGE Ashton Gillotte, CB Nohl Williams — rotational trench juice and secondary depth that fit Steve Spagnuolo’s play-fast profile.
The roster spine
- QB/skill: Mahomes-Kelce remains the league’s most reliable third-down decoder ring. Worthy’s speed opens grass; Brown/JuJu churn the steady yards.
- OL/run: Simmons plus a battle-tested interior keeps Pacheco in second-and-manageable.
- Defense: Jones is still the trump card; Trent McDuffie leads a secondary that must grow up fast without Justin Reid.
The numbers (and what they imply)
Model vs. market is a push: 11.0 expected wins vs 11.5; playoffs 82.55% vs 81.82% implied (-450); division 53.68% vs 54.55% implied (-120). Translation: everyone expects Kansas City to be Kansas City. The path to over is clean receiver availability in September and a top-five red-zone rate.
Bottom line: It’s still a Super Bowl program. If the YAC plan holds until Rice returns and the rookie tackle acclimates, the Chiefs will play from ahead—on the field and in the standings.
Los Angeles Chargers: Harbaugh Ball Meets a Moving Offensive Line
The big swing
The Chargers won 11 last year and recommitted to a run-anchored, defense-complementary identity under Jim Harbaugh—only for the line to be reshaped by injury. Rashawn Slater is out for the season; Joe Alt flips to left tackle; Mekhi Becton arrives to stiffen the interior. The front seven was reloaded with youth and low-risk vets; the corner room added a proven starter.
The coach’s hand
Harbaugh’s blueprint is stable: condense splits, steal gaps with motion, feed the backs, and let Justin Herbert hunt off play-action. On defense, it’s wave after wave of edges with a coverage core that rallies and tackles.
Key transactions that actually matter
Free agents
- CB Donte Jackson — instant starter opposite Cam Hart; man/zone-versatile and a plus tackler.
- G Mekhi Becton — inside move to stabilize the run game and protect play-action.
- RB Najee Harris — power complement; keeps the early-down script on schedule.
- DL Da’Shawn Hand — interior depth for a heavy rotation.
Draft
- IDL Jamaree Caldwell, EDGE Kyle Kenard — fresh legs for Jim Harbaugh’s wave rush.
- RB Omarion Hampton — rookie with three-down upside who can push for carries early.
The roster spine
- QB/weapons: Herbert is still a top-tier thrower; the trio above covers short/intermediate/vertical.
- DL/edges: Mack-Tuipulotu plus rookies is a sustainable pressure plan without heavy blitz.
- DBs: If Jackson settles quickly, this is a “make you stack drives” unit.
The numbers (and what they imply)
AccuScore is more bullish than the book: 10.0 wins vs 9.5; playoffs 64.86% vs 56.52% implied (-130); division 26.31% vs 22.22% implied (+350). The gap has narrowed on the division price, but the thesis holds: markets fear the OL; the model likes the structure.
Bottom line: Built to shorten games and smother on defense. The season swings on whether the patched-up line keeps Harbaugh’s plan on script.
Denver Broncos: An Elite Defense, a Second-Year QB, and Real All-Three-Levels Speed
The big swing
Sean Payton’s second Denver team looks like he wants: precise on offense, nasty on defense. The Broncos kept a ferocious pass-rush together, added range at linebacker, and upgraded the back end. Bo Nix inherits continuity up front, a clear target hierarchy, and a deeper TE room.
The coach’s hand
Payton’s young-QB plan is time-tested: rhythm throws, formation multiplicity, easy answers; on defense, Vance Joseph lets the rush tee off because the coverage rules are reliable.
Key transactions that actually matter
Trades
- Sent breakout WR Devaughn Vele to the Saints for mid-round capital (confidence in the remaining WR/TE usage with Evan Engram arriving).
Free agents
- LB Dre Greenlaw — range and finishing next to Alex Singleton; raises the second-level floor.
- S Talanoa Hufanga — instincts/physicality piece who lets the defense live in two-high more often.
- TE Evan Engram — high-volume outlet and red-zone matchup tool for Bo Nix.
Draft
- Round 1: DB Jahdae Barron — nickel/safety hybrid who unlocks disguise packages.
- Round 2: RB RJ Harvey — pass-game juice and change-up pacing with JK Dobbins/Jaleel McLaughlin.
The roster spine
- Defense: Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen powered last year’s league-leading sack group; Patrick Surtain II erases one side; Hufanga/Barron let Denver live in two-high and still close windows.
- Offense: Nix’s Year-2 jump is keyed by Courtland Sutton and Engram on money downs; JK Dobbins/RJ Harvey/Jaleel McLaughlin give Payton matchup levers.
The numbers (and what they imply)
The model is a tick below the market on playoffs (53.75% vs 56.52%) and notably below on division (18.04% vs 26.67%), with 9.0 wins versus a 9.5 total. Translation: simulations respect the defense but tax second-year QB variance; the book prices in the defensive floor and Payton’s week-to-week edge.
Bottom line: If Nix’s processing speeds up and Engram lifts the red-zone rate, Denver plays January football—and looks like a team you don’t want in your bracket.
Las Vegas Raiders: A Reset With Pete Carroll—and a Roster That Must Learn Fast
The big swing
Pete Carroll takes over and reunites with Geno Smith. The mission is obvious: fix the league’s worst rushing attack from a year ago, settle protection, and let two true weapons—Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers—be weekly problems. The draft brought a back Carroll can build around; the defense was re-racked with new linebackers and a different secondary.
The coach’s hand
Carroll wants to win first down, compress your coverage with the run, and then take shots on his terms. That requires better blocking and a back who makes easy yards. On defense, Las Vegas will be multiple up front but simple on the back end: keep a lid on explosives and let Maxx Crosby try to wreck drives.
Key transactions that actually matter
Trades
- Acquired QB Kenny Pickett from the Browns to stabilize the room behind Geno Smith while Aidan O’Connell heals (fractured wrist).
Free agents
- LB Germaine Pratt, LB Elandon Roberts — a new, downhill linebacker core for Pete Carroll.
- S Jeremy Chinn, CB Eric Stokes — secondary reset after multiple departures; big ask to hold the lid without growing pains.
Draft
- Round 1: RB Ashton Jeanty — centerpiece do-everything back (run/catch/protect) for the new run-first identity.
The roster spine
- QB/skill/OL: Smith is a high-variance downfield thrower when protected; Bowers was a target magnet as a rookie; Meyers is the metronome. The line returns four of five but must be much better creating yards before contact.
- Defense: If Koonce reprises 2023 and the new LBs tackle, the D can be feisty—but the back end must avoid giving up cheap touchdowns.
The numbers (and what they imply)
AccuScore’s 7.0 wins vs 6.5 is mild optimism. The playoff gap is stark: 10.13% model vs 22.73% implied at +340, and 1.97% model division vs 6.25% implied at +1500. That’s the classic “markets buy new-coach/QB variance; models punish trench and secondary risk.”
Bottom line: If Jeanty hits immediately and the pass rush holds without Wilkins, Las Vegas can be a weekly spoiler. The playoff ticket, though, still requires a big one-score record swing.
The Cross-Currents That Will Decide the Division
1) Offensive line triage vs. defensive line depth
The Chargers lost an All-Pro LT and are asking two new pieces to play premium roles; if Alt and Becton hold, Harbaugh can live in his preferred script. Chiefs depth plus Nnadi’s return settles the interior. Broncos rotate waves without drop-off. Raiders simply need better displacement than 2024, or the offense never gets to its shot calls.
2) Who owns “boring” early downs
Kansas City’s evolution is about living in second-and-manageable and letting Mahomes/Kelce pick clean leverage. Los Angeles’ whole identity is built on this. Denver’s defensive floor thrives when the offense avoids three-and-outs. Las Vegas has to convert Jeanty’s touches into four-yard base hits or Carroll will be chasing games.
3) YAC vs. tackle efficiency
The Chiefs want Brown/Worthy/JuJu catching on the move; if the rest of the division misses tackles, Kansas City wins the hidden-yards war. The Chargers’ secondary is built to tackle. Denver is already elite here. The Raiders’ remade back end must prove it can get ball-carriers down.
4) Red-zone sequencing
Denver’s Engram add and Payton’s condensed formations should raise their TD rate. Kansas City still has Kelce’s option tree. The Chargers need their run game to threaten goal-to-go to keep play-action alive. The Raiders must find compressed-field answers for Bowers beyond fades.
What the Betting and Model Gaps Really Mean
- Chiefs: 11.0 vs 11.5; playoffs 82.55% vs 81.82% (-450); division 53.68% vs 54.55% (-120). Translation: consensus favorite—micro-edges (WR availability, OL cohesion) determine whether they coast to 12.
- Chargers: 10.0 vs 9.5; playoffs 64.86% vs 56.52% (-130); division 26.31% vs 22.22% (+350). Translation: models love the structure; the market still prices OL risk, but less severely than before.
- Broncos: 9.0 vs 9.5; playoffs 53.75% vs 56.52% (-130); division 18.04% vs 26.67% (+275). Translation: simulations tax Year-2 QB variance; bettors upgrade the defense/staff edge.
- Raiders: 7.0 vs 6.5; playoffs 10.13% vs 22.73% (+340); division 1.97% vs 6.25% (+1500). Translation: huge perception gap—models fade the trenches and back end; markets buy the Carroll-Smith bounce.
If you’re hunting a misprice, it’s still Chargers division exposure: if the OL holds water, their defensive profile plus Herbert’s efficiency fits an “ugly 10” that keeps pressure on Kansas City into Week 18.
Week-to-Week Ingredients to Track
- Chiefs: September target distribution without Rice; short-yardage efficiency with Nnadi back.
- Chargers: Third-down pressure rate allowed with Alt at LT; Harris vs Hampton snap share.
- Broncos: Nix’s time to throw and play-action rate; Barron/Hufanga usage on money downs.
- Raiders: Yards before contact for Jeanty; third-down conversion to Bowers.
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The People Who Will Decide It
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Kansas City Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes remains the league’s best problem-solver when the picture changes post-snap; his ability to reset platforms and keep eyes downfield is the offense’s permanent floor. Travis Kelce is still the middle-eight cheat code—option routes, scramble-drill chemistry, and red-zone feel that converts tight windows into touchdowns. Isiah Pacheco sets the weekly rhythm; if his downhill efficiency keeps early downs in second-and-manageable, Kansas City can play patient and still land explosives off play-action.
- On the perimeter, Xavier Worthy’s speed widens coverage shells even when he’s not targeted—clear-outs that create in-breakers for others. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the possession-and-YAC answers while Rashee Rice serves his suspension; both are physical enough after the catch to let Andy Reid lean into the quick game without sacrificing chunk potential.
- Defensively, everything still orbits Chris Jones. Interior wins on standard downs let Steve Spagnuolo disguise pressure rather than declare it. Trent McDuffie gives the secondary a true No. 1 cover option who can travel and tackle—critical against motion-heavy attacks. Derrick Nnadi’s return matters more than it will ever trend: early-down run fits keep the call sheet balanced and the third-and-long package intact. The sideline duo—Reid and Spagnuolo—is the NFL’s best at sequencing offense and throwing curveballs on defense. If the receivers catch the ball in stride and the run front stays sturdy, the West still runs through Arrowhead.
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Los Angeles Chargers
- Justin Herbert is the precision arm Harbaugh ball needs: he punishes single-high looks, throws with timing off condensed splits, and has the horsepower to hit the deep dig when play-action opens the middle. Ladd McConkey’s instant separation gives Herbert a high-percentage outlet on third-and-short; Keenan Allen remains the route professor who manipulates leverage and wins option routes; Quentin Johnston is the volatility swing—if his second-year timing and hands catch up to his burst, the vertical layer appears without chasing it.
- The backfield is built for identity. Najee Harris absorbs contact and keeps the schedule clean; rookie Omarion Hampton brings a change-up gear and screen value. Together, they let Harbaugh call the game from ahead. Up front, the plan only works if Joe Alt settles at LT and Mekhi Becton’s power stabilizes the interior—those two are the difference between leaning on play-action and having to chase with five-out concepts.
- On defense, Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu are a merciless down-to-down pair: Mack’s get-off and hand usage draw slides, freeing Tuipulotu to win on isolated tackles. Donte Jackson brings boundary speed and, crucially, tackle reliability—vital in a division where YAC is a weekly theme. Derwin James Jr. remains the movable piece who erases tight ends on one snap and triggers off the edge on the next. Jim Harbaugh turns those parts into complementary football: shorten games, lean on field position, and make you execute 10 clean plays to score.
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Denver Broncos
- For Bo Nix, Year 2 is about speed—speed through progressions, speed to the checkdown when Payton dials a shot that isn’t there, speed to the line for tempo calls. Courtland Sutton is the trust throw: slants, fades, back-shoulders on the boundary that keep drives alive when defensive structure wins the down. Evan Engram is the matchup gadget Denver’s passing game needed—motion him into leverage, throw the glance, force defenses out of their comfort shells.
- The backfield trio—RJ Harvey, JK Dobbins, Jaleel McLaughlin—gives Sean Payton three different tempos. Harvey’s receiving chops stress linebackers; Dobbins hits decisively north-south; McLaughlin’s space game taxes pursuit angles. If two of the three stay healthy, Denver will be in second-and-five all season.
- This defense already traveled. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper bring relentless edges that force hurried decisions, while Zach Allen collapses pockets into the quarterback’s lap. Patrick Surtain II deletes a quadrant of the field and lets Vance Joseph tilt coverage away from the opponent’s next best option. Talanoa Hufanga adds instincts and strike at safety—an antidote to layered play-action—and Dre Greenlaw/Alex Singleton clean up everything in front of them. Sean Payton’s superpower is sequencing: he’ll call your tendencies on first down, protect his QB on second, and hunt your weak link on third. If Nix’s ball is on time, Denver’s defense will close the door.
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Las Vegas Raiders
- Geno Smith brings risk management and targeted aggression—he’ll take the shot when the picture’s clean but will live to fight the next snap if it’s muddy. That dovetails with Brock Bowers, who turns seam throws and crossers into explosives without perfect protection, and Jakobi Meyers, one of the league’s most reliable third-down separators. The rookie centerpiece is Ashton Jeanty: vision, contact balance, and three-down utility. If he forces safeties to sit a step shallower, the rest of the offense breathes.
- Up front, the mandate is clarity: stable double-teams and a functional outside zone so play-action actually sells. If the line gets Las Vegas to second-and-six, Pete Carroll can run his preferred script—move the chains, take selective verticals, trust the defense.
- That defense begins with Maxx Crosby, a one-man tempo machine whose motor turns late-down snaps into event plays. Malcolm Koonce is the essential counterpunch; if he wins honest ones, offenses can’t just slide to Crosby. The new second-level core—Germaine Pratt and Elandon Roberts—has to be efficient tacklers to keep the call sheet out of crisis mode. In the back end, Jeremy Chinn and Eric Stokes won’t win style points every rep, but if they keep a lid on verticals and finish tackles, Carroll can call the game he wants. For Vegas, the equation is simple: Jeanty to get on schedule, Bowers to cash the big downs, Crosby to end drives.
A Division in One Paragraph
The West still runs through Kansas City, but the weekly margin is thinner. The Chargers have the defense and run game to shorten matches—if the patched-up line holds. The Broncos combine a top-tier pass rush with a young quarterback who already plays on schedule; that’s a playoff recipe. And the Raiders are honest about who they are in Year 1 of a restart: find a run game, survive on defense, and let two or three stars make just enough plays. The standings should mirror that order—Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders—but the edges are one injury or one OL answer away from flipping.
If You’re Looking for Edges in September
- Chiefs early-season YAC props (Worthy/Brown) while Rice sits—role clarity often precedes pricing.
- Chargers team-total overs in games where the LT picture looks stable; Harbaugh will still throw if protection allows.
- Broncos unders vs low-mistake offenses—Denver’s defense can suffocate drives while Payton plays the clock.
- Raiders opponent explosive-pass overs until the new secondary proves it can keep a lid on it.
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