Survivor isn’t just about finding the biggest favorite each week—it’s portfolio design. When you’re holding 10 entries in a pool like Circa Survivor, your edge comes from systematic probability, diversified exposure, and constraint-aware scheduling. That’s exactly what AccuScore delivers: modeled win probabilities, week by week, that let you build a rational plan rather than a hunch-based one.
Using only the win probabilities from Accuscore season simulations, we constructed a 20-slot season plan: Weeks 1–18 plus Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas. Starting on Sunday games for week 1, we enforced the once-per-team rule inside each entry (i.e., each entry uses 20 different teams across the 20 slots), while also using a portfolio-level exposure cap (no more than 3 of the same team in the same slot across the 10 entries).
Below you’ll find (1) how the slate was built with AccuScore probabilities, (2) why the holiday slates are the real risk magnets, (3) how we diversified the cards to stay under the per-slot cap without sacrificing too much win probability, and (4) a summary table listing every entry’s 20 teams and the total modeled survival probability of going 20-0.
How we built the 10-card plan (AccuScore-first, constraints baked-in)
1) Model input. We used the win probabilities from our season simulation. These are AccuScore’s simulation-derived win probabilities, and they’re the only inputs driving pick quality here. No bookmaker lines, no injury news—just the model.
2) 20 pick-slots. Survivor at Circa requires picks on every regular-season week; in your sheet we also treat Thanksgiving/Black Friday (TG/BF) and Christmas (XMAS) as distinct required pick-slots. Total: 20.
3) Enforced constraints.
- Portfolio exposure cap: in any slot (e.g., Week 7), no more than 3 entries can use the same team.
- Classic Survivor purity per entry: inside any given entry, each NFL team can be used at most once over the 20 slots.
4) Selection engine. For each slot, we rank all possible teams by AccuScore win probability and assign picks to all 10 entries, respecting both constraints. Because holiday slates have fewer games, we consider both sides of each holiday game; otherwise you can’t fill 10 entries without exceeding the “3 per team” cap.
5) Exclusions & ordering. We removed Week 1 PHI–DAL and LAC–KC entirely from the candidate set to start it with full swing on Week 1 Sunday. To keep the “once-per-team” rule feasible and preserve options on thin slates, we schedule TG/BF and XMAS first, then fill Weeks 1–18; this prevents us from “accidentally spending” the exact teams we need on the holidays.
What the AccuScore numbers tell us about the calendar
The model is emphatic about early-season chalk, especially Weeks 2–4 (and Week 12). Those weeks have multiple games with 0.75+ probabilities—exactly the kind of spots Survivor pools often ignore because “there’s plenty of season left.” AccuScore’s stance is simple: when you find 0.76–0.80 favorites in a format where one wrong pick kills an entry, you should use them intelligently. Our portfolio spreads those premium edges while honoring the “3 per slot” cap.
The holiday slates are the real stress test:
- Thanksgiving/Black Friday has four games (eight teams): enough room to stay under the three-per-team cap while leaning into chalk such as KC, PHI, and DET by your numbers.
- Christmas is tighter: three games (six teams), so the cap and the once-per-team rule across 10 entries force at least one underdog selection somewhere. AccuScore’s probabilities still allow us to prioritize KC and WSH where possible and use MIN or DAL sparingly to fill the remaining entries. This is where AccuScore earns its keep—quantifying the concessions we’re forced to make and guiding the least-painful alternatives.
Late season (Weeks 16–18) sees probabilities drift toward the mid-60s as divisional rematches, playoff incentives, and weather add variance. Our cards reflect that reality by front-loading truly elite chalk and saving reasonable 0.64–0.69 options for the close, rather than “wasting” 0.75-plus edges in November just to feel balanced.
Survivor as portfolio construction (why these 10 entries make sense)
With 10 bullets, the goal is not to make 10 identical cards—it’s to maximize the geometric survival of the entire portfolio. AccuScore makes that tractable: we can measure exactly how much survival probability we give up when the “3 per team” cap pushes us off the week’s top favorite for some entries, and we can do it slot by slot.
What falls out is a set of 10 entries that:
- Share the best chalk (when the cap allows),
- Diversify into the second- and third-best options where necessary, and
- Respect Survivor purity (once per team inside each entry) without painting us into a corner on TG/BF or XMAS.
The outcome is transparent: every concession is explicitly priced in by AccuScore’s probabilities, and every upgrade to a stronger team (when cap reopens) is equally explicit.
Results: 10 entries, 20 unique teams each, and the modeled survival probability
The table below lists each entry’s 20 teams (the once-per-team set) and the total AccuScore survival probability of going 20-0 (simple product of weekly win probabilities). Use these as “publishable cards”—and lean on the downloadable workbook for week-by-week picks and probabilities.
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Entry
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Survival Prob (20-0)
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Survival %
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Teams from Week 1–18 (+TG/BF & XMAS), 20 unique per entry
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Entry #1
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0.000852
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0.085%
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WSH, SF, SEA, BUF, ARI, BAL, DEN, PHI, LAR, CHI, GB, CIN, KC, TB, MIA, JAC, HOU, DET, LVR, DAL
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Entry #10
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0.000448
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0.045%
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WSH, SF, BUF, MIA, ARI, DEN, KC, PHI, PIT, CHI, GB, CIN, BAL, LAC, LAR, TB, HOU, DET, LVR, JAC
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Entry #2
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0.001081
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0.108%
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JAC, SF, TB, BUF, ARI, BAL, DEN, PHI, LAR, HOU, MIN, DET, KC, NE, MIA, PIT, LAC, WSH, SEA, CIN
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Entry #3
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0.001084
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0.108%
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DEN, DET, TB, BUF, PHI, BAL, LAC, CIN, LAR, HOU, NE, GB, KC, SF, MIA, JAC, MIN, WSH, SEA, DAL
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Entry #4
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0.000707
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0.071%
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DEN, BAL, WSH, DET, BUF, PIT, LAC, CIN, GB, TB, NE, SF, PHI, LAR, CLE, HOU, MIN, KC, SEA, JAC
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Entry #5
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0.000761
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0.076%
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DEN, BAL, BUF, DET, MIN, WSH, LAC, CIN, GB, TB, NE, SF, PHI, MIA, LAR, PIT, ARI, KC, IND, HOU
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Entry #6
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0.000733
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0.073%
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ARI, BAL, BUF, DET, MIN, WSH, DEN, NE, GB, TB, LAR, SF, PHI, MIA, CLE, PIT, LAC, KC, CIN, HOU
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Entry #7
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0.001082
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0.108%
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ARI, BUF, SEA, SF, BAL, PIT, KC, NE, LAC, DEN, LAR, GB, DET, MIA, TB, PHI, MIN, WSH, CIN, HOU
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Entry #8
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0.000492
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0.049%
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ARI, BUF, WSH, SF, BAL, DEN, LAR, NE, PIT, HOU, GB, KC, DET, LAC, TB, PHI, CIN, MIN, IND, JAC
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Entry #9
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0.000531
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0.053%
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WSH, BUF, SEA, SF, BAL, DEN, KC, IND, PIT, PHI, LAR, GB, DET, LAC, TB, JAC, HOU, MIN, LVR, CIN
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How to read it: Within each entry, you get 20 unique teams for the 20 pick-slots. Across the 10 entries in any given week, you’ll never see the same team more than three times. The Survival % is the product of weekly AccuScore win probabilities—best used for relative comparison of the cards (because real life introduces correlations like weather or injuries).
Why this is the right way to use AccuScore for Survivor
- It’s strictly model-driven. Every decision is tied back to a win probability; every deviation from the top favorite is a transparent exchange rate in percentage points.
- It manages contest-specific constraints. Circa’s unique holiday requirements and your “≤3 per team in a week” cap are baked into the plan from the start—no hand-waving.
- It preserves flexibility. Because we enforce “once per team” inside each entry, you avoid the common Survivor trap of painting yourself into a corner. And because we pre-allocate the holiday slates, we don’t discover on Dec. 25 that we’ve already spent KC and WSH ten different ways.
- It’s portfolio-aware. Spreading KC/BUF/BAL/PHI across 10 entries without over-concentrating any single week is where the real EV lives. AccuScore quantifies that spread so you can make rational trade-offs.
Practical notes before you lock these cards
- Holiday vigilance: Christmas remains the highest-leverage day. If injuries or weather move probabilities, use AccuScore’s latest simulations to rebalance—especially if the cap forces you onto an underdog.
- Late-season pragmatism: Weeks 16–18 rarely gift you 0.75 favorites; 0.64–0.69 is normal. AccuScore helps you pick the best of the mortal options.
- Correlation watch: Avoid loading too many entries on the same mega-favorite if news turns against it. With AccuScore, you can immediately quantify whether swapping one entry from 0.76 to 0.72 improves true portfolio survival under the new information.
The pitch (because this is AccuScore’s wheelhouse)
Survivor rewards clean math and discipline more than any other football contest. AccuScore’s simulation engine transforms thousands of micro-factors into a single, actionable number: win probability for this team on this day. Build from that number, respect the constraints, and you’ll give yourself the best possible run—not just one “hot” card, but a coherent, diversified portfolio of ten.
Use the cards above as a publishable base. Then, each week, refresh with AccuScore’s latest simulations and make surgical adjustments when the market or the weather tells you to. That’s how Survivor is won: one rational, model-backed decision at a time.
As the final prize for one winner is 15 million, it is worth to target to be the only winner. The probability that at least one of these 10 entries will go for 20-0 is ≈ 0.774%. If all of you will make these exact same entries, it ensures that none will win 15 million. So tweak entries a bit, but make sure that you keep probabilities on your side. At the end this is gambling.
