• 2017 NFL Kickoff: Patriots vs Chiefs

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Patriots vs Chiefs: 2017 NFL Kickoff - Week 1

    Football is back in action and Week 1 kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champ New England Patriots hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. At the time of publication, the Pats are 9-point favorites with the total at 48.5.

    What to Watch For

    With Julian Edelman out of the lineup this season, keep an eye on wide receiver Brandin Cooks to get some production early and often. Most scouts are expecting a slightly faster tempo from the Pats when looking to get Cooks some touches. He's projected to finish Thursday's game with 46 receiving yards on 4 carries; he averages 0.3 TDs per simulated matchup.

    A big part of the Kansas City's 12-4 record last [regular] season can be directly connected to its league-leading 33 takeaways, allowing the Chiefs to finish the season No. 1 with a +16 turnover ratio, tied with Oakland. The Chiefs average 1 forced turnover per simulated matchup.

    All of AccuScore’s Week 1:NFL Expert Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuSore Sims

    Whereas Vegas has the Pats favored by 9 points, AccuScore sim data has that line a couple points lower at 7. The line actually opened in Vegas at 7 and the highest it has been so far is 9.5.

    The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 28-21. Kansas City covers the 9-point spread in over 54 percent of simulations.

    The totals listed in most books across Vegas are about the same as the data AccuScore sims provided.

    Betting Trends

    • Kansas City is 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last six road games going into last season.
    • Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games going into last season.

    Analyst's Pick

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    2016 NFL Betting Record

    (revealed)

    The Chiefs have lost their last six road games up in Foxborough. Not expecting a KC victory, but Alex Smith has proven himself to be able to stay competitive in games like this. He lost 27-20 to New England in the 2016 AFC divisional round. I'm expecting a fairly strong performance by the Chiefs' defense, led by Justin Houston -- enough to keep things at bay.

    KC +9 is what we're going with.

  • 2019 NFL Playoffs Bracket: Chiefs Over Saints in Super Bowl

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    NFL Playoffs 2019: Chiefs Over Saints in the Super Bowl

    With Wildcard Weekend wrapped up, the real NFL playoffs begin now. The top two teams in each conference get to host games that count and the best eight teams remaining in the league are all in action in the divisional round, which should probably be more accurately referred to as the conference semifinals.

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    AFC Playoffs

    Starting with the AFC, the Chargers go to New England to take on the New England Patriots in a game that features two veteran quarterbacks still standing. Philip Rivers is 37 years old, which makes him sound like a teenager next to the everlasting 41-year-old Tom Brady. On neutral ground, Rivers and the sturdy Chargers may well beat the Patriots. This game, however, is at Foxboro, and New England is therefore a heavy favorite to advance.

    Andy Reid's record isn't stellar in the playoffs, but he's never quite had a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is so stunningly good, along with being the MVP favorite in his first full year under center, that no one entering this game has Andrew Luck ranked ahead of the Kansas City QB. The Colts turns some heads in how they jumped out to an early lead and put their Wildcard game to bed, but playing at Arrowhead against Mahomes and the no. 1 team in the AFC is test of another grade. KC is 68% to win, which should be noted as the strongest differential of any of the eight teams to advance.

    The Chiefs and Patriots meeting in the AFC Championship feels like a passing of the torch from Brady to Mahomes, but Brady likely has no interest in passing anything other than the football. Any previous year, Brady would be the best quarterback on the field without question, but this has been Mahomes season, and it will take a special effort from the weakest looking Patriots team in recent memory to bypass the Chiefs and punch another ticket to the Super Bowl for the Pats.

    2019 NFL Playoffs Bracket

    NFC Playoffs

    The Rams host the Cowboys at the LA Memorial Coliseum, which promises to be a packed house and provide an electric atmosphere. LA seemed to be back to its high-scoring ways to wrap up the season, and that spells doom for the Cowboys. If the Rams rack up points, Dallas is going down, and that's a 60-40 likelihood according to AccuSore.

    Similarly, the Saints and Eagles is an interesting proposition. It's Super Bowl favorite versus Super Bowl champion. The Eagles may be back to looking like a team to beat, but playing New Orleans in the same place where Drew Brees and company clobbered Philadelphia 48-7 and put the Eagles' season on life support is not a positive sign of a Philly win. The Saints aren't scared of the Eagles, and this is another 60-40 game in favor of the Saints in the computer's eyes.

    The NFC Championship featuring the Rams and Saints promises a high-scoring affair, but these two teams met in New Orleans during the regular season, and the Saints outscored the Rams 35-17 in the first half. The final score looked like a respectable count of 45-35, but the game never felt that close.

    Like the Chiefs, the Saints look like a clear favorite, and AccuScore's 10,000 simulations have New Orleans as a 60% favorite to advance to the Super Bowl over the Rams.

    Super Bowl 2019

    The Chiefs and Saints meeting on a neutral ground is fitting because these have been the two best teams this season, and that's been clear as day to see. For Mahomes, facing Brees after facing Brady should lead to even more exaggerated imagery of a torch being passed. Of course, the Super Bowl is a monster of chaos, distractions and pressure unlike any other football game, so Brees has an edge on the Chiefs' quarterback in that regard.

    Still, AccuScore believes that the Chiefs are simply better, though a 56% to 44% difference implies that this will be a tough challenge for the Chiefs. Ultimately, though, the Chiefs should conquer the Saints on Super Bowl Sunday with Mahomes key to victory.

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  • New England Patriots Favorites to Win: Super Bowl 53 Preview

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    New England Patriots Favorites to Win Super Bowl

    The New England Patriots have been here before.

    Bill Belichick has been here before, as has Tom Brady. Jared Goff and Sean McVay are the future of the NFL, but the first shot doesn’t always strike the target. AccuScore simulated the Super Bowl 10,000 times to see which team would come out on top, and the New England Patriots won 56.9 percent of simulations, with the Rams still coming out on top 43.1 percent of the time.

    Super Bowl 53 Predictions

    This is projected to be a close game, with the Patriots listed as clear favorites, even if EA Sports' Madden video game had the Rams winning by three.

    Vegas agrees for the most part that the Patriots are favorites, with the spread currently at -2.5 points. The total points line is 56.0 points.

    AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and on totals for the Patriots versus the Rams:
    Click Here for full expert picks and full forecast, including player projections at every position

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  • Thursday Night Football: Pats vs Bucs - Analyst Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s Week 5NFL Picks

    The New England Patriots might be on the road to kick off Week 5, but they're still getting about six of every ten tickets in books across Vegas. The Patriots are 2-2 straight up (SU), but have only covered just once this season. The Bucs are 2-1 SU and 1-2 against the spread (ATS).

    Vegas Odds: Patriots vs Tampa Bay

    The line opened up for the Pats at -4, but quickly creeped up to 5.5 or 6.0 depending on when and where you're getting it. Westgate has it at -5.5, but MGM has up at -6.

    Fun Facts

    New England and Tampa Bay have given up a combined 851.1 total yards of offense per game. The biggest total in Thursday Night Football history is 56.5. The total is at 55.5 at the time of publication. Betting Trends

    The last 5 games -- league-wide -- that closed with a total of 54 or higher all went OVER. The total was at 55.5 at the time of publication. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.] The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]

    What to Watch For

    The rushing attack for New England has had some issues this season -- averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season. RB Mike Gillislee has four TDs, but is still averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.

    Gillislee is projected to finish with 47 yards on 7 carries. He averages 0.4 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick

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