Accuscore Expert Analyst Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

NHL on Wednesday: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

In the Eastern Conference lopsided matchup the Senators host Lightning in Ottawa. The Sens are at the bottom of the conference right above dead last Buffalo, while Tampa Bay is going strong at the top of the East.

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Last season’s conference finalists are in deep crisis. The owner has stated they’re likely to cut salaries by more than 10M$, which means everyone is for sale. Things are not that much better on the ice. Only 51 points in 58 games means the Senators are effectively out of the playoffs already, adding to the pressure of cutting costs. They’ve only won two games in regulation from the past 15. However, at home they’ve been remarkably better, winning five straight – albeit three in overtime or shootout. When the season is practically over for the Senators, it remains to be seen how much fight they still have in them in this dire situation.

Accuscore’s record in picking Tampa Bay games on the road is 20-13 with a profit of +406 for the season and picking Tampa Bay games against teams under .500 is 18-8 with a profit of +343.

Conference leading Tampa Bay have had their problems after almost invincible beginning to the season, but they’ve managed to put up a decent sequence in the past 10 games, with six wins and four losses. Their bad stretch included five losses in seven games. While Lightning still doesn’t look as good as they did to start the season, they’ve managed to score aplenty and lead the conference in goals scored.

Lightning has scored a hefty 3.58 goals per game overall and 3.45 on the road. Senators have allowed 3.52 overall and 3.5 at home. Tampa Bay’s defense has been decent on the road, allowing 2.66 while Ottawa’s offense has been abysmal at home, only scoring 2.25 goals on average. The visitors have a huge edge in quality of roster and Ottawa is also playing the second game of back-to-backs after featuring in Chicago tonight. Returning home after road trip is never easy and Tampa Bay are huge favorites in this one.

Accuscore’s simulations

In Accuscore simulations Tampa Bay wins 60.5% of the games. The hosts remain at 39.5%. There’s good value in picking Tampa Bay while the odds are still somewhat under the 60%. The best value is found in 3-way though, with Tampa Bay 52% favorites to win it in regulation and the odds offer in the region of 48%.

The game is rather high-scoring in simulations, with an average of 6.5 goals scored. The hosts manage to put 3.0 past Andrey Vasilevskiy, led by Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman. The visitors however do one better and score on average 3.5 goals past Craig Anderson. Lightning’s most likely scorers feature Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and this season’s breakthrough player Yanni Gourde.

Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov scores a goal with 41.7% likelihood and at least one point with 68.7% probability. Ottawa’s Mark Stone is the most likely goal scorer for his team with 31% and Erik Karlsson is the most likely to pick up at least one point with 53% probability.

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Analyst Picks

Can’t look past the Lightning here as Ottawa is in all kinds of trouble on and off the ice. The offense of the visitors is overwhelming compared to the hosting defense, so it’s likely to be a goals galore as well.

• There’s excellent value in Tampa Bay ML win, which should be taken with odds of -153 | 1.65
• 3-way bet for Tampa Bayworks even better with odds better than -104 | 1.96
• The total goes over 5.5 in 60.3 % of the simulations, so take the over with odds of -151 | 1.66

NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2019 - Bracket and Predictions

Accuscore's 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

It's playoff time in the NHL, which means Accuscore's bracket and predictions all the way until the Stanley Cup Finals is decided. For all the picks and predictions during the NHL Playoffs 2019, JOIN ACCUSCORE NOW by using code "NHL25" for 25% off the membership price!

Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 Bracket

After simulating every NHL Playoffs 2019 game for 10 000 times, Accuscore has come up with the most likely scenario from the first face-off to the hoisting of the Stanley Cup and this is how it looks like: click to enlarge in a new tab

Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 Predictions

There are a couple of surprises is the Accuscore NHL Playoffs 2019 simulations. Depending on your bookmaker, you might find different sorts of betting options and as usual we'll provide the predictions with our odds. You can then make the choice according to your options. Here are the best value picks based on the pre-playoffs predictions as compared to available odds:

Toronto Maple Leafs to beat Boston Bruins

Widely regarded as a piece of cake for the Bruins, Accuscore's simulations are determined it'll go the other way. The teams faced off last year in the same setting and Toronto has only gotten better since then. Boston is a strong, hardened team, but Mike Babcock and his young troops are in for a fight and are playing with a chip on their shoulder from last year's narrow 4-3 defeat. Boston did win three of four regular season matchups, so they've got a small edge from past meetings. However, with the odds set clearly against the Maple Leafs, the young guns are certainly worth a shot. Take Toronto to progress with odds of -150 | 1.67 or better!

Washington Capitals to finish off Carolina Hurricanes

The reigning champions had their usual issues during the regular season and it can be questioned how much hunger the team has left after finally entering the winners circle. However, the team is top notch all over, with enormous amount of playoffs experience - and now the Capitals know what it takes to go all the way. Carolina Hurricanes has been an inspiring sparkle all season, but the team is inexperienced and not quite there yet when it comes to killing of even matched games. Their time will come, for sure, but it's too early for now. Take Washington Capitals with the odds of -210 | 1.48 or better!

Western Conference regular season winners Calgary Flames over Colorado Avalanche

The Flames were in flames most of the season, led by suberb performances by Norris-candidate Mike Giordano and red-hot goalkeeper David Rittich. The team has been built with patience and it's finally coming to fruition after some difficult times. Flames boasts top quality offensive talent, a deep secondary scoring unit and excellent defensive core in addition to sublime goaltending. The group is inexperienced in the playoffs, but it should not prove to be a problem in the first round - especially against equally inexperienced Colorado Avalanche, who are quite frankly not even close to Flames regarding quality down the line. Their top line is fantastic, but not quite enough to challenge the Flames this time around. Take the Flames to continute from the pair with odds of -256 | 1.39 or better!

Keep an eye out for the next edition of Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 predictions after the 1st round! We'll review the previous picks and provide an updated bracket and predictions then. And remember, in order to gain access to all NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs picks and predictions, SIGN UP NOW with a code "NHL25" in order to receive 25% off of the membership price!