Accuscore Impact Analysis - NHL Trade Deadline Splashes 2018/2019

This season the NHL trade deadline on February 25th finally saw some big fish change their habitats, whereas previously it’s been just about as interesting as watching grass grow. Several teams pulled the trigger on anticipated headline deals, while some certain trade baits were left untouched. We are of course interested on how these decisions affect the outcomes of coming regular season games and more importantly, the playoffs.

By running Accuscore’s simulations before and after the deadline trades – or actually a bit before as some decisive moves were already made previous week, we can determine the impact these changes have had on the teams, both in the short and the long run.

Overall the changes definitely made a couple of teams stronger and of course then left a couple of stragglers weaker. Interestingly though, with less than 20 games left in the regular season, the impact on the predicted point totals changed only very slightly. This is probably due to the fact that teams growing stronger were already comparatively strong and most of the strong teams got better – and respectively the bad teams were already bad. Let’s see what effect the trades have had on some of the contenders and their likely playoff partners.

Trade deadline winners

Columbus Blue Jackets

Not only did the Blue Jackets finally add a legitimate presence at the centre in Ottawa’s Matt Duchene and necessary depth in mid-6 wing in Ryan Dzingel, but they managed to hold on to talisman Artemi Panarin and no.1 goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. Addition of hard-nosed defenseman Adam McQuaid and backup keeper Keith Kinkaid added some icing to the cake. With the moves, Columbus grew significantly stronger in offense and more reliable in the back. More notably, the trades allow moving the current players to their more suitable roles, namely a step or two down the hierarchy.

Pre-DL: to make playoffs 83%, to win division 15%, point total 94

Post-DL: to make playoffs 97%, to win division 20%, point total 98

 

Vegas Golden Knights

Arguably the best player and probably one of the most undervalued two-way forwards in the game, Mark Stone left Ottawa for the Golden Knights. One of the most constant performers in struggling Senators, Stone brings a truckload of offensive talent to Vegas – something the team has been lacking. Stone instantly became Golden Knights best scorer with almost 20-point margin with his 62 points in 59 games. Rarely has an impact of a single addition been as big as Stone’s is for Vegas. And they know it, since instantly after the trade the former Senator signed an 8-year $76M contract, making him the highest paid Golden Knight in history.

Pre-DL: to make playoffs 71%, to win division 0.03%, point total 88

Post-DL: to make playoffs 84%, to win division 0.10%, point total 91

 

Nashville Predators

Boasting an already strong team, Nashville Predators upgraded a couple of key positions albeit not growing stronger depth-wise. Kevin Fiala and Ryan Hartmann were sent away and in return the Predators acquired Mikael Granlund and Wayne Simmonds. While Granlund provides some much needed talent in the offensive end with his hockey IQ and passing ability, Simmonds brings in another tough net-front presence which will be much needed in the post-season. Although Simmonds has disappointed this season, change of scenery might spark a little life on the big forward. Bottom-6 veteran centerman Brian Boyle joined already earlier, providing some depth to the offence. Fiala and Hartmann were solid roster players, but it seems their replacements add some value to Pred’s Stanley Cup run.

While the regular season’s predictions improved only marginally for the Predators after trade deadline, the impact on probabilities to win a playoff series increased with almost 5% against their Western Conference rivals – except for the Jets.

Winnipeg Jets

Also considered one of the frontrunners for Stanley Cup in the western conference, Jets did what they did last season: acquired a center for top-6. Last year it was Paul Stastny, now in Vegas and this year it is Ranger’s Kevin Hayes, a big body as is Jets’ configuration with some excellent prowess in both ends of the ice. He’s been a solid +40 point scorer in more or less chaotic Rangers team and is expected to jump in to help the likes of Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers to score the goals. Jets also bolstered their D with Panthers’ Bogdan Kiselevich, who adds depth to injury ridden defensive core missing Josh Morrissey and Dustin Byfuglien. Buffalo’s defender Nathan Beaulieu came in as a reclamation project after failing to make an impact in his two seasons and just might get a chance in the coming weeks. Matt Hendricks came in as a veteran presence to the dressing room and will probably spend a lot of time as a healthy scratch mentoring the youngster and filling in the 4^th line if necessary.

Like with Predators, Jets’ predictions for regular season improve only slightly due to the additions. And as is with the Predators, Jets’ chances of winning a playoff series improved closer to 4% - except against the Predators.

No-impact exchanges

Several teams consider contenders made some roster changes which have no impact according to the simulations. Some teams needed to shake it up without really improving that much and some teams preferred more suitable players for different role – be as it may, the following trades provided some headlines but didn’t affect or had a marginal effect on Accuscore’s regular season predictions and the playoffs-scenarios.

Washington Capitals acquired defenseman Nick Jensen from Detroit Red Wings in exchange to Madison Bowey. While Jensen is a definite upgrade to Bowey as of now, the impact in solid Capitals defence is minimal at best. Carl Hagelin’s arrival from LA Kings should provide some depth in offense, but his numbers this season and last season are so poor his impact is marginal as well.

Pittsburgh Penguins GM Jim Rutherford continued his shuffling of the deck at the deadline. Already having sent out Carl Hagelin to LA for Tanner Pearson, Pearson was now exchanged for hard-nosed bruiser of a defender Erik Gudbranson of Vancouver. Former 3^rd overall pick never filled his potential and is unlikely to have a big impact on Penguins hunt for the Cup, especially since exactly similar calibre Jamie Oleksiak was let go earlier. Coming in already before the deadline were also Florida’s Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann while Derick Brassard and Riley Sheahan went the other way. The moves balance out overall and the impact is literally non-existent.

Dallas Stars would’ve probably been in the winner side, but Mats Zuccarello’s injury in his first appearance pushed the Stars down a bit – especially with most of the other western contenders growing stronger. Additions of Andrew Cogliano and Jamie Oleksiak already in January and Ben Lovejoy joining in exchange to Connor Carrick are only fringe moves, which are not showing up on simulations. Healthy Zuccarello has a small impact, but in the playoffs Stars did not get remarkably better.

Toronto made their move already in January, acquiring Jake Muzzin to bolster the defence. Maple Leafs boast such an impressive team that Muzzin addition had no significant impact to their expected results. The same goes for San Jose Sharks, who added forward Gustav Nyquist from Detroit Red Wings. Already having a playoff percentage of 100% and point total prediction at 104, Nyquist makes no difference in Accuscore simulations.

Colorado Avalanche added centerman Derick Brassard, now with his 3^rd team of the season. His numbers are remarkably poor and there’s only a marginal impact on Colorado’s probabilities.

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Accuscore’s NHL 2018/2019 Season Preview and Predictions

The winter is coming and so is the brand new NHL season. We’re looking at another 1271 regular season games, starting from tonight and lasting until early April 2019. There’s been some major movements in the league, but the strong teams are still strong and the weak are still weak – or are they?

The summer was riddled with big name transactions, as John Tavares finally quit New York and headed back home to Toronto. Ottawa’s turmoil continued as arguably the best defender in the league, Erik Karlsson has left the Canadian capital for what can only be described as a ridiculous return from San Jose Sharks.

Last season finally saw Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals hoist the Stanley Cup – and it’s been a summer of celebration for the Caps fans and players alike, as we’ve witnessed through various channels over the internet. Will the Capitals recover from the hangover to challenge once again?

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With the training camps over and rosters set for the opening night, Accuscore’s supercomputer has worked its magic once again and pre-determined the outcome of the NHL regular season 2018/2019 by simulating each and every game for 10 000 times.

This is how the regular season standings are most likely to look after it’s all done and dusted on April 6^th 2019:

Accuscore’s Regular Season Outright Total Picks

In the Western Conference there’re not a lot of surprises. According to the simulations, both Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames manage to gather three more wins than the Vegas line would suggest. The line is rather high for the Jets at 106.5, but considering they already posted 114 points last season, it’s worth a shot. Flames on the other hand missed playoffs last season with a meager 84 points, but they’re a stronger group this time around and likely to make the playoffs. The line of 93.5 means that if they’re in the battle for the playoffs, it should be a piece of cake.

The other end of the table sees Colorado Avalanche collapsing again far out of the playoff position. There are several question marks over the team, especially depth-wise but their young core might also surprise. Even if Accuscore’s numbers indicate they only reach 79 points, the line of 90.5 is a tad too low to go for the under – in case they are able to hang in for the playoff battle, there could be some moves to further enhance their chances.

In the Eastern Conference the top looks very familiar and the bottom is quite as expected as well. Tampa Bay ended up with 113 points last season, and they’re not any less convincing this time around. Gathering more points than last season from their weakened Eastern Conference bottom feeders should not be a problem and the line of 107.5 points seems reachable. At the other end of the queue, there’s New Jersey Devils who are in a somewhat problematic rebuilding phase. Superstar Tayler Hall is likely to win a couple of games for his team, but otherwise the young core is unlikely to be able to push for playoffs and the line of 91.5 is a tad high. To add insult to injury, no.1 goalkeeper Cory Schneider is out for indefinite amount of time to start the season. Sorry Devils, this is not your season yet.

Western Conference Picks

Winnipeg Jets 106.5 points: OVER

Calgary Flames 93.5 points: OVER

 

Eastern Conference Picks

Tampa Bay Lightning 107.5 points: OVER

New Jersey Devils 91.5 points: UNDER

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NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2019 - Bracket and Predictions

Accuscore's 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

It's playoff time in the NHL, which means Accuscore's bracket and predictions all the way until the Stanley Cup Finals is decided. For all the picks and predictions during the NHL Playoffs 2019, JOIN ACCUSCORE NOW by using code "NHL25" for 25% off the membership price!

Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 Bracket

After simulating every NHL Playoffs 2019 game for 10 000 times, Accuscore has come up with the most likely scenario from the first face-off to the hoisting of the Stanley Cup and this is how it looks like: click to enlarge in a new tab

Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 Predictions

There are a couple of surprises is the Accuscore NHL Playoffs 2019 simulations. Depending on your bookmaker, you might find different sorts of betting options and as usual we'll provide the predictions with our odds. You can then make the choice according to your options. Here are the best value picks based on the pre-playoffs predictions as compared to available odds:

Toronto Maple Leafs to beat Boston Bruins

Widely regarded as a piece of cake for the Bruins, Accuscore's simulations are determined it'll go the other way. The teams faced off last year in the same setting and Toronto has only gotten better since then. Boston is a strong, hardened team, but Mike Babcock and his young troops are in for a fight and are playing with a chip on their shoulder from last year's narrow 4-3 defeat. Boston did win three of four regular season matchups, so they've got a small edge from past meetings. However, with the odds set clearly against the Maple Leafs, the young guns are certainly worth a shot. Take Toronto to progress with odds of -150 | 1.67 or better!

Washington Capitals to finish off Carolina Hurricanes

The reigning champions had their usual issues during the regular season and it can be questioned how much hunger the team has left after finally entering the winners circle. However, the team is top notch all over, with enormous amount of playoffs experience - and now the Capitals know what it takes to go all the way. Carolina Hurricanes has been an inspiring sparkle all season, but the team is inexperienced and not quite there yet when it comes to killing of even matched games. Their time will come, for sure, but it's too early for now. Take Washington Capitals with the odds of -210 | 1.48 or better!

Western Conference regular season winners Calgary Flames over Colorado Avalanche

The Flames were in flames most of the season, led by suberb performances by Norris-candidate Mike Giordano and red-hot goalkeeper David Rittich. The team has been built with patience and it's finally coming to fruition after some difficult times. Flames boasts top quality offensive talent, a deep secondary scoring unit and excellent defensive core in addition to sublime goaltending. The group is inexperienced in the playoffs, but it should not prove to be a problem in the first round - especially against equally inexperienced Colorado Avalanche, who are quite frankly not even close to Flames regarding quality down the line. Their top line is fantastic, but not quite enough to challenge the Flames this time around. Take the Flames to continute from the pair with odds of -256 | 1.39 or better!

Keep an eye out for the next edition of Accuscore's NHL Playoffs 2019 predictions after the 1st round! We'll review the previous picks and provide an updated bracket and predictions then. And remember, in order to gain access to all NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs picks and predictions, SIGN UP NOW with a code "NHL25" in order to receive 25% off of the membership price!