• How To: AccuScore's NFL Picks and College Football Picks Explained

    Understanding AccuScore’s Football Picks

    Need help understanding AccuScore's football picks? AccuScore may look a bit different because we've updated our look to make things easier for our members. It's still the same great simulations and layout, but now, it's easier to read than ever.

    There are two views: The Graph View and the Grid View (better for college football).

    The Graph View: UPDATED

    After updating our graph view, spread and totals picks are clearer to see than ever before.

    Football Graph View

    For each pick above, we have assigned a number to help explain how to read each of AccuScore's expert picks for every game: Totals, Spreads, Side Value and Moneyline:

    1. The Totals pick in this example is "OVER 45.5 points" and 60.9% of simulations have resulted in the games going OVER. This is listed as a one star trends pick (out of 4 stars).

    2. The spread pick in this example is "PHI -9.5" because Philadelphia covered the 9.5 points spread in 51.3% of simulations. This pick is identified as a 2-star trends pick, which serves as a good example to remind you that the trends rating is not based on the computer's probability but on the historical trends of how the computer has performed with the teams and other historical trends.

    3.The side value pick was the New York Giants, because the moneyline odds at +340 offered 3.4% value when converting Vegas odds into a percentage. This is also represented by the inside circle in the graph. The Vegas odds were giving the Giants a 22.8% chance to win, while AccuScore calculated that the Giants had a 26% chance to win. This means there is 3.2% side value on picking the Giants at +340.

    4.The moneyline pick is pretty straight forward in that AccuScore's simulations resulted in the Philadelphia Eagles winning 73.9% of the time in this example. If there is any team that is more than 50% to win, it is the moneyline pick.

    If you click on the “full forecast” box, you can play around with slider tools that allow you to adjust the spreads and totals lines to see AccuScore's probabilities at various other lines. Also, the full forecast has player projections for both teams.

    Grid View

    To get to the grid view, take a look at the red arrow above and click on the three lines. The graph symbol allows you to switch back to the graph view. Due to the number of games in College Football, the grid view is now the default view. Also, you can type in team abbreviations in the search box (green arrow) and find any game you’re looking for faster. The graph view is the default view for most other sports, but switching to the grid view is the same process for every sport.

    Understanding the Grid View

    Football Grid View

    Let’s use an example from a college football game to illustrate the grid view: LATech vs Arkansas

    Let’s go column by column to understand what everything means in the grid view. Acc Sim% simply lists AccuScore’s simulation calculations, which list Arkansas as an 88% favorite. Conversely, Louisiana Tech only won 11% of simulations. That’s easy enough.

    Odds% is AccuScore converting the public odds into a percentage. Before you freak out and think something is wrong, the percentage is over 100% because bookies add a bit of juice to their end. While we removed that juice in the past and converted odds to be out of 100%, leaving the juice in actually allows for a clearer look at true side value because it doesn’t arbitrarily push down Vegas’ odds as a percentage.

    In this case, Vegas oddsmakers are saying there is a 97.22% chance of Arkansas winning and only a 5.69% chance of LATech winning. Looking at it side-by-side with AccuScore’s Sim%, the side value is clearly on LATech.

    The next column is “PS” and “ACC PS.” The top number is the point spread set by bookmakers, which is Arkansas -25. Below it, AccuScore lists the point spread line we believe it should be: Arkansas -21. Since Vegas is overinflating Arkansas, the point spread pick is Louisiana Tech.

    Next, we have the “OU” and “Acc OU” column. Similar to the last column, the first number (52) is the Over/Under line set by Vegas oddsmakers. The number below it is the Over/Under line AccuScore calculated. Since AccuScore’s line is higher than the public odds, the pick is the OVER.

    The final three columns are ML, SV, and Total, and all of them simply list the star-rated picks. As the season continues, we will have more trends and 3 and 4-star picks. Using the arrows, members can sort games by star-ratings and instantly find all games offering 4-star totals picks.

    Note: AccuScore still offers the ability to change lines and change spreads by clicking on the team names in the grid view. Also, you can see written previews for every game, top trends and player projections.

  • NFL Week 3: Dolphins vs Jets Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Sunday - Jets @ Dolphins - 4* Hot Trend Alert

    The New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins Sunday as 6-point road underdogs, with the total listed at 43. The Jets are in a crucial part of their schedule -- actually having a chance against teams like the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns in the coming weeks. Let's see what the simulation data says about stopping the likes of Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry.

    Jets vs Dolphins - NFL Week 3 Pick

    Vegas Odds and AccuScore Sim Data

    AccuScore sim data and Vegas odds are on the same page on this matchup - projecting a convincing Dolphins victory. Miami is listed at -270 on the money line in Vegas, indicating a 72-to-72 percent chance of winning. They win 71 percent of the simulated matchups.

    There hasn't been a whole lot of movement on the line since it opened at -6.5 for Miami. The Dolphins cover the currently-listed 6-point spread about 53 percent of the time -- on par with the odds listed in Vegas. The Dolphins covering is a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

    AccuScore has player projections, picks against the spread, on the moneyline and totals for EVERY game...All of Week 3's NFL Picks

    Not a member?Use code NFLmonth for 20% off an ALL-SPORTS, All Access membership (monthly or annual): Become a Member Today!

    Note: First time members get a 7-day free trial when they register for a monthly membership.

    Betting on the Total

    It's tough to imagine this Jets roster to put up any more than 14-to-17 points on the scoreboard. They average 16 in the sims, with the total staying below 43 in close to 62 percent of simulations.

    • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. They gave up 45 to Oakland in Week 2.
    • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

    What to Watch For

    The Jets quite possibly might have the worst defense in the league and Dolphins head coach Adam Gase knows how to take advantage of that. Especially with weapons like Landry and Ajayi. Ajayi finished last week with 122 yards on 4.4 yards per carry.

    Ajayi is projected to finished this game with 116 yards on 20 carries. He averages 0.9 TDs per sim, the highest average on both teams.

    FREE Week 3 Analyst's Pick

    MIA -6 and the UNDER. Lay the points and take the Dolphins; buying a half point to 5.5 wouldn't be a bad option here either.

    Review: AccuScore's Hot Trends: Week 3

Joomla SEF URLs by Artio