Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

NFL Sunday - Jets @ Dolphins - 4* Hot Trend Alert

The New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins Sunday as 6-point road underdogs, with the total listed at 43. The Jets are in a crucial part of their schedule -- actually having a chance against teams like the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns in the coming weeks. Let's see what the simulation data says about stopping the likes of Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry.

Vegas Odds and AccuScore Sim Data

AccuScore sim data and Vegas odds are on the same page on this matchup - projecting a convincing Dolphins victory. Miami is listed at -270 on the money line in Vegas, indicating a 72-to-72 percent chance of winning. They win 71 percent of the simulated matchups.

There hasn't been a whole lot of movement on the line since it opened at -6.5 for Miami. The Dolphins cover the currently-listed 6-point spread about 53 percent of the time -- on par with the odds listed in Vegas. The Dolphins covering is a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

AccuScore has player projections, picks against the spread, on the moneyline and totals for EVERY game...All of Week 3's NFL Picks

Not a member? Use code NFLmonth for 20% off an ALL-SPORTS, All Access membership (monthly or annual): Become a Member Today!

Note: First time members get a 7-day free trial when they register for a monthly membership.

Betting on the Total

It's tough to imagine this Jets roster to put up any more than 14-to-17 points on the scoreboard. They average 16 in the sims, with the total staying below 43 in close to 62 percent of simulations.

• The UNDER is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. They gave up 45 to Oakland in Week 2.
• The UNDER is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

What to Watch For

The Jets quite possibly might have the worst defense in the league and Dolphins head coach Adam Gase knows how to take advantage of that. Especially with weapons like Landry and Ajayi. Ajayi finished last week with 122 yards on 4.4 yards per carry.

Ajayi is projected to finished this game with 116 yards on 20 carries. He averages 0.9 TDs per sim, the highest average on both teams.

FREE Week 3 Analyst's Pick

MIA -6 and the UNDER. Lay the points and take the Dolphins; buying a half point to 5.5 wouldn't be a bad option here either.

Review: AccuScore's Hot Trends: Week 3