Accuscore’s Most Reliable NFL Picks in 2019

Remember NFL season 2019? There were plenty of surprises and plenty of let-downs, with Patriots crashing out of playoffs early and Cowboys, Rams nor Chargers even making it to the post season. Predicting those unpredictable is extremely hard, but Accuscore still managed to make the best of it, as is depicted in the NFL Pickwatch article. But which team was the most reliant one and should we expect the same trend next season? And on the other hand, which team caused the biggest losses and was indeed the most unpredictable, at least for Accuscore’s algorithms.

Accuscore is making NFL picks for each and every game – among others – and the results can be tracked more than 10 years in the past. Let’s have a look at last season’s selections.

Point Spread Cash Cows

There were two teams standing out in predicting the NFL point spread: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. Accuscore predicted the point spread correct 13 times in Rams’ 16 games and 14 times in Chiefs 19 games, making the percentages 81% and 74% and profits of +970 and +810.

On the other end of the spectrum were Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars. Green Bay was a serious buzzkill all of the last season and from their 18 games Accuscore only got 4 correct with one push, resulting in -1030 deficit. Jaguars was not that much better, with a result of -710 and 5-11 record in Accuscore’s Point Spread predictions.

Notably, only nine teams returned a negative profits from the point spread, the total adding up to +3710.

Over/Under Heroes and Zeroes

The NFL over under lines seem to have been much closer to truth in Vegas bookmakers’ papers. There was still a couple of very profitable teams, headlined by Seattle Seahawks with 13-5 record and +750 profit and 72% hit-rate. In the other end, Chicago Bears totaled a lousy -1020 and a record of 3-12-1. The rest of the teams were rather closely packed in between and it will be intriguing to see how the new season will play out regarding the totals and the lines set by the bookmakers.

Game Winners

Not taking the odds into consideration is not the best measurement or advice when it comes to betting, but the bragging rights can be achieved by knowing that of course Tennessee will beat the Patriots. Accuscore was astonishingly accurate in the match winner prediction, getting 67% correct from all the games, with a record of 179-88. There was some fluctuation here as well: Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins games resulted in over 80% of correct winners predicted by Accuscore, while Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans crashed well under 50%.

Overall these money line picks would’ve returned a profit of +3095 with an even 100 stake.

Buffalo Bills Season Preview

June 4th, 2020 - By Brandon Barbour

In just the second season with quarterback Josh Allen and the third season with head coach Sean McDermott, the Buffalo Bills went 10-6 and marched into the postseason in 2019. Ultimately, they would lose the Wild Card game in overtime to the Houston Texans. The Bills were even good going up against legit NFL spreads, as they finished the season 9-6-2 against the line covering 60% of games. This surprisingly made the Bills on of the top NFL picks against the spread for last year’s campaign.

As you already know, Tom Brady is out of New England, opening the door for Buffalo to take control of the AFC East. The Bills had a quiet offseason and return with a very similar starting group on defense. This is great news, especially when you consider they allowed the third-fewest yards per contest in 2019 (298.3) and the second-fewest points per game (16.2).

They also return with the similar offense, but with some additions to take note of. They spent a third-round pick on running back Zack Moss to compliment Devin Singletary. Moss will take over the Frank Gore role as an in between the tackle and goal line runner. At 5’9”, 223 pounds, he’s a bruiser.

The key addition was sending off their first-round selection (and many other picks) to the Minnesota Vikings for Stefon Diggs’ services. The 26-year-old has two-consecutive 1,000 receiving yard seasons, including 18 touchdowns over his last 33 games. He immediately slots in as Buffalo’s top wide out ahead of John Brown and Cole Beasley. This is a major acquisition when you consider that the Bills accumulated the worst drop rate in football last season at a whopping 7.0 percent.

The help is here for Josh Allen. The big quarterback improved his completion rate by 6.0 percent in his sophomore season and reduced his interception rate from 3.8 percent to 2.0 percent. He even put together four fourth quarter comebacks and five game winning drives. If you think Diggs won’t take Allen to new heights, then think again. Diggs posted the 10th-best DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) among wide outs last season, including the seventh-best DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).

The Bills are tied for the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL this season. Luckily for them, the Patriots have the most difficult schedule based off of 2019 opponents’ win percentage. Buffalo lost both meetings with New England last season, so they’ll need to improve against Bill Belichick in 2020 in order to vie for the division.

The Bills are coming, but have they arrived? Signs are pointing towards yes, but the offense will have to prove that they’ve grown. The 2020 NFL season is looking bright in Buffalo. It feels like their time to take a leap and continue heading in the right direction. Expect to see the Bills back in the playoffs.

Chicago Bears: Over/Under 8 Wins?

June 16th, 2020 - By Brandon Barbour

After finishing 8-8 in 2019, the Chicago Bears have much to prove. The defense was on top of its game, allowing just 298 total points (fourth-fewest) and the eighth-fewest total yards. Despite compiling the eighth-smallest blitz rate (23.5 percent), Chicago’s pass rush posted the fourth-highest hurry rate against quarterbacks, including a 25.2 percent pressure rate (sixth-best).

The advanced stats show that Chicago’s defense was terrific as well. The defense posted the eighth-best DVOA. Khalil Mach did his thing, sacking the quarterback 8.5 times in 2019, including a quarterback hit an additional 14 times. Linebacker Leonard Floyd tacked on 12 quarterback hits and defensive tackle Nick Williams added six sacks. The Bears don’t return in 2020 with the same cast on defense, but it’s very similar.

Mitchell Trubisky didn’t make any leaps or bounds in his third season. After going 11-3 over 14 starts in 2018, Trubisky dipped to 8-7 as a starter in 2019. His rating dropped from 95.4 to 83.0. He also accounted for 82 more pass attempts and accumulated less passing yards. Trubisky is looking like one of the most disappointing top NFL picks we have seen in a while.

The offensive line didn’t help Trubisky a ton, as the quarterback had the sixth-least amount of time to throw on average (2.64 seconds). Trubisky’s DYAR was pathetic and ranked eighth-worst among 34 quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts. His DVOA ranks him in the same spot. These are all reasons why the Bears acquired Nick Foles from the Jacksonville Jaguars.

We all know that Foles led the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl win in 2018 over the New England Patriots. It’s worth noting that Foles has a winning record over his career. He’s 26-22 as a starter. Expect Foles to gain an opportunity to start, as the club could be tired of waiting for Trubisky (former second overall pick) to mature.

The Bears are tied for 13th for the most challenging schedule. They’re right in the middle of the pack as far as strength of schedule goes. If their defense can continue to hold opponents under 20 points in 2020, then they should have a successful season. They’ll host the Detroit Lions and visit the New York Giants to start the season. The Lions should be improved, but this should be a 2-0 start for Chicago.

Next comes a visit to the Atlanta Falcons, followed by hosting the Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This could result in three-straight losses. Atlanta could be better than most think in 2020 and the Colts have improved drastically with their new quarterback addition in Philip Rivers. Let’s get back to the winning side of things. Week 6, Chicago will visit the Carolina Panthers, followed by a road date with the Los Angeles Rams. These are two winnable games and should push the Bears to 4-3.

Then, they’ll host the New Orleans Saints, visit the Tennessee Titans, host the Minnesota Vikings, visit the Green Bay Packers, host the Lions, host the Houston Texans, visit the Vikings, host the Jacksonville Jaguars, and finish at home against the Packers. Let’s say they split their matches with the Vikings and Packers. Let’s also say they take down the Lions for the second time and beat up the Jaguars. The Saints and Texans feel like losses, but a defense this great could keep them in the games, including their battle with the Titans. If you are a bettor when you see these NFL lines and how much will Vegas either be favoriting or helping the Bears to try and cover these games. 

Disregarding the Saints, Texans, and Titans games, the Bears could be at 8-5. This means they would need to pull off one of the games against the Saints, Texans, or Titans. If they’re smart and roll out Foles all season, then they should be capable of pulling out a 9-7 season. Foles is making nearly double what Trubisky is making in salary, so expect the Bears to want a veteran at the helm. Taking the over on their NFL over under of eight wins isn’t a slam dunk, but it’s a decent wager to place at this point in time. Chicago won eight games last season with terrible quarterback play. Think an upgrade at the position is worth an extra win?

NFL Preview: Giants vs Seahawks: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Seattle Seahwawks at New York Giants: Analyst Preview & Pick

After winning their first game of the season last week, the New York Giants (1-5) get set to host the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) this Sunday at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Giants haven't had much go right this season, leading with the Odell Beckham Jr. injury. The Giants finally got a win, though, and that's already had an interesting impact on the betting market.

Betting Line: Seattle Seahawks -4
Moneyline Odds: Seahawks -210, Giants +175
Total: 39.5

Click Here for All of AccuScore's Week 7 NFL Picks

Vegas Odds

Seattle opened Week 7 as 8-point favorites. Over the past few days, the public has pushed that line down to -4, with the majority of the public overreacting to the Giants' win last week.

The total has stay consistent, settling at 39.5 after opening at 39.

Betting Trends
• The Giants are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games at home against a West Cost team.
• The Giants are 2-10 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games as home underdogs.
• The UNDER is 6-1 in the Giants' last seven games on field turf.

What to Watch For
Let's give credit where it's due -- the Giants pulled off an impressive win last week against the Denver Broncos as two-TD underdogs.

No Odell, no Brandon Marshall, and no Sterling Shepard. QB Eli Manning finished with just 128 yards through the air, but it was RB Orleans Darkwa who stole the show. Darkwa finished with 117 yards on the ground against the No.1 run defense in the league.

Darkwa is projected to finish Sunday's game with 21 rushing yards on 4 carries.

Manning is projected to finish with 246 passing yards, averaging almost as many INTs (0.7) as TDs (0.9) in the sims.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Week 1 Recap

Week 1 in the NFL is in the books and we are happy to finally have the NFL back. Below is a recap of some of our favorite games from the weekend, and some advice for what to do for week 2.

Miami Dolphins 11 - 21 New England Patriots

The Patriots played their first game without Tom Brady in nearly two decades and found themselves on the winning end of the contest -- a stellar rushing performance from Cam Newton carried New England to a 21-11 win over the Dolphins. The Patriots led 7-3 at halftime but pulled away in the second half with two more touchdowns. Newton completed 15 of his 19 passes for 155 yards, but the former Panthers star made his biggest impact on the ground with 75 yards and two touchdowns in 15 rushes -- Newton led the Patriots in both passing and rushing yards. Julian Edelman was New England’s biggest receiving threat, as the speedy wideout recorded 57 yards in five receptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 20 of his 30 passes for 191 yards, but the turnovers killed him -- he tossed three interceptions. DeVante Parker was Miami’s top offensive performer with 47 yards on four receptions. The Patriots edged the Dolphins in total yards by a sizable margin (357 to 269) despite the fact the Dolphins led in passing yards 182 to 140. New England won this game on the ground.

If you are betting the NFL check out our friends at BetQL and theirNFL best bets to see which way their model is betting for every game and every

Green Bay Packers 43 - 34 Minnesota Vikings

The Packers and the Vikings played one of the most intense, scoring-free games in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL regular season, as both teams combined for 77 points -- 38 of those in the fourth quarter alone -- and 904 total yards, including both teams surpassing the 240-yard mark when it came to passing yards. The Packers pulled away in the second quarter when they outscored the Vikings 19-3 and, even though Minnesota attempted a late comeback when they won the second quarter by a 24-14 score, they didn’t have enough time to turn things around. Aaron Rodgers, who made one of the most dazzling plays of Week 1 with an epic TD pass to Davante Adams, completed 32 of his 44 passes for 364 yards and four touchdowns, while Adams himself had quite a night -- 14 receptions, 156 yards, and two scores. Kirk Cousins completed 19 of his 25 passes for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Dalvin Cook recorded 50 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries, and Adam Thielen registered 110 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions.

This game had the over under hit pretty quick, and if you want to get some more over under locks for week 2 check outBetQL’s over under picks dashboard, with BetQL you can see their model rating for each game and find out which way the pros & public are betting 

Cleveland Browns 6 - 38 Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens delivered a statement performance in Week 1 against their division-rival Browns, scoring 38 points on them while allowing just six points -- despite the fact that the Browns racked up 306 total yards. The Ravens, however, finished with 377 total yards and were particularly effective in key situations -- they converted 54 percent of their third-down opportunities. The game was close during the first quarter, as the Ravens edged Cleveland 10-6, but they pulled away for good in the second quarter onwards, scoring 28 unanswered points. Lamar Jackson completed 20 of 25 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns, and the star quarterback also added 45 yards on the ground. Mark Andrews recorded 58 yards and two scores on five receptions. Baker Mayfield only completed 21 of his 39 passes for one touchdown and one interception. Kareem Hunt racked up 72 yards on 13 carries, while Jarvis Landry had 61 yards on five receptions.

The experts nailed the Ravens pick on the head for week 1, and if you want to find out who the experts are betting for week 2 you can take a look atBetQL’s NFL picks against the spread to see which way the experts are betting for every game. 

NFL: Betting Against the Spread

Most Surprising Team Against the Spread:
Los Angeles Rams

• Despite going 9-7 and missing the playoffs in 2019, the Los Angeles Rams were one of the best NFL picks against the spread, and were the second-best team (behind the Chiefs) against the spread, covering 66.7% of their games.

• The Rams were impressive last season when playing away from home last year, going 4-4. However, a couple of those losses were close enough to beat the spread. 

• Los Angeles was wildly inconsistent in 2019, which is why they missed the playoffs. But the Rams still had enough talent to beat quality teams, blowout poor teams, and keep pace with any team in the league.

• Given the team’s consistency last season and a difficult schedule in 2020 that includes seven games with playoff teams from last year, don’t bet on the Rams covering 66.7% of their games this season.

Road Warriors
Everybody knows that it’s not easy going on the road in the NFL, even for good teams. But the Rams were a solid 4-4 away from home in 2019, including three wins in the Eastern Time Zone. Granted, they were favored in those three games, but they covered all three of them. In their most difficult road games, the Rams lost by one point to the Seahawks and three points to the 49ers, beating the spread in both games. That led to a 6-2 ATS record on the road in 2019.

Any Given Day
The biggest reason why the Rams missed the playoffs last year was their inconsistency and propensity simply not showing up at times. They spoiled a 3-0 start with a 15-point home loss to the Buccaneers. They were blown out 45-6 at home against the Ravens. They also lost in Dallas 44-21 late in the season despite being slight road favorites. However, the Rams could go toe-to-toe with elite teams on any given day. As mentioned, they managed close road losses with the Seahawks and 49ers and beat Seattle at home. They also thrashed the Saints 27-9 in Week 2. On their good days, the Rams could take care of business against lesser teams, blowing out the Falcons, Bengals, and Cardinals while also beating the Browns and Bears by at least a touchdown.

Hold Your Bets
The level of inconsistency the Rams showcased last season makes them a poor candidate to repeat their 66.7% ATS winning percentage in 2020. With the 49ers winning the NFC last year and the Cardinals on the rise, the NFC West is a treacherous division. The Rams will play seven games against teams that made the playoffs last year with four of those games coming on the road. Los Angeles will also play five road games in the Eastern Time Zone, including games against the Eagles, Bills, and Buccaneers. Such a schedule will make it difficult for the Rams to find consistency and make it difficult for bettors to put their faith in L.A. to cover week after week.