2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket East Region Predictions

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2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis: East Region Predictions

Zion Williamson and the Duke Blue Devils will draw more eyeballs than any other team, but winning the tournament and having the no. 1 pick in the NBA Draft don't necessarily go hand-in-hand.

Duke is projected to cruise in its opening matchup before drawing VCU after the team from Virginia knocks off UCF in its opening round matchup. This region isn't exactly stuffed with upsets in the early going, but the Maryland-Belmont appears to be the best matchup to pick the early upset. Both teams win 50% of simulations, but Maryland gets the slightest of edges, so the computer has Maryland going through to meet LSU after the Tigers knock out the Ivy League's Yale comfortably in the first game.

Michigan State is projected to make easy work of Bradley in the Spartans' first game, before knocking out Louisville to arrive at the Sweet 16. The Michigan State-LSU matchup favors Michigan 62% to 38%, before the Spartans meet Williamson and the Blue Devils in the Elite 8.

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Before arriving at the Elite 8, the Blue Devils have to get past Virginia Tech, which is projected to only slightly edge Mississippi State in the second round to make the second weekend of the tournament. That matchup, the Virginia Tech versus Miss. State is a near toss-up, according to the computer, with Virginia Tech only winning 52% of simulations.

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Duke is projected to beat Virginia Tech with 61% confidence before meeting Michigan State with a trip to the Final Four. Michigan State is projected to upset Duke in the Elite 8, but Duke's road to the Elite 8 is easier that MSU's , so the Blue Devils still have a higher percentage chance to advance to the Final Four, 32.0%, and win the title, 8.24% than the Spartans, 29.1% and 7.9% respectively.

Still, AccucScore projects a close Elite 8, with Michigan State pulling the upset 51% of the time to advance to the Final Four.

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2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket Midwest Region Predictions

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2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis: Midwest Region Predictions

The University of North Carolina came a couple of Zion Williamson plays away from knocking off Duke in the ACC semifinals, and the Tar Heels are anything but pushovers. After all, "the ceiling is the roof," as Michael Jordan so eloquently said. Needless to say, UNC is projected to waltz past its first two games and into the Sweet 16. Cameron Johnson, Coby White and Luke Maye form a potent trio of heads to cut off before anyone can conquer the snake. As such, Carolina's first test will come in the Sweet 16, when Auburn steps forward after being projected to upset Kansas in the second round of the tournament. That said, UNC is 61% to bet Auburn, and that number actually pops up to 66% if Kansas advances to to the Sweet 16.

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Kentucky, likewise, dominates the other end of the Midwest region, with a cakewalk in its first two games. Houston, however, is no joke, and the Cougars come into the tournament with a 31-3 season, after losing to Cincinnati in the American Conference Tournament. Houston is projected to demolish Georgia State before comfortably crushing Iowa State to advance to the Sweet 16 and a date with Kentucky.

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While North Carolina is projected to beat Auburn with a 61% to 39% edge, the matchup between Kentucky and Houston is much closer at 52% to 48%. Kentucky does advance, but the cakewalk ends by the time the Sweet 16 rolls around, with games only getting closer in the Elite 8.

There isn't much to separate Kentucky and UNC, especially with a trip to the Final Four on the line. However, North Carolina gets the slightest of edges in a head-to-head matchup, with 51% of simulations go to North Carolina to advance. Overall, North Carolina has a 8.9% chance of winning the tournament according to AccuScore and 30.0% chance of making the Final Four. Kentucky's odds of winning the tournament aren't much worse at 7.2%, and the Wildcats have a 25.6% chance of advancing to the Final Four.

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2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket South Region Predictions

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2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis: South Region Predictions

Virginia has a 16.56% chance to win the tournament, which is the highest probability of any team in the field, according to AccuScore's simulations.

As such, it shouldn't come any any surprise the Virginia Cavaliers have a 98% probability of advancing past their opening game. One of the best matchup of the first round is Saint Mary's and Villanova, with the Nova getting a 58% edge over Saint Mary's. The closest matchup in the region, however, is Ole Miss and Oklahoma with the Sooners projected to top Ole Miss 65-61 in a close matchup.

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On the other side of the region, Tennessee is a heavy favorite to advance alongside Cincy, with the Volunteers getting a 60-40 edge over Cincinnati to advance to the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Purdue is expected to meet the winner of Nova and Saint Mary's. If Purdue meets Tennessee, the edge is 71% for Tennessee to advance to the second weekend, while at matchup against Villanova gives Purdue a 57% chance of making it to the Sweet 16.

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Wisconsin is expected to topple the Pac-12's Oregon and meet Kent State, after Kent State knocks out UC Irvine, the Big West Champs. Wisconsin is projected to upset Kent State according to AccuScore's simulations and advance to the Sweet 16, but that matchup is close, with the Badgers winning 54% of simulations in the head-to-head matchup.

Not surprisingly, Virginia is projected to comfortably move past Wisconsin and make the Elite 8, where Tennesee is projected to top Purdue in a close game, 56% to 44%.

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March Madness: Free Friday Pick - Arkansas vs Butler

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Arizona is out, the Pac-12 is in ruins and day two of the madness promises more upsets and shockers. There are a few games in particular that AccuScore thinks are worth keeping an eye on because the computer simply doesn’t agree with Vegas.

Friday’s Free Pick: Arkansas over Butler – Moneyline

Arkansas is the no. 7 seed, while the Butler Bulldogs are 1.5 point favorites as the no. 12 seed according to Las Vegas. Well, this is one case where AccuScore thinks Vegas is wrong. Vegas says that Arkansas only has a 46.5% chance of winning, while the computer thinks that number should be closer to 55.3%, so there is 8.8% side value on picking the Razorbacks to justify their seeding. Likewise, the computer calculates Arkansas wins outright or loses by 1 in 58.9% of simulations.

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The play here, though, is to take Arkansas on the moneyline at +114.

In addition, this game also has a hot trends 4-star pick on the Totals. With the line at 151.5, the computer thinks this game will go over, with 54% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations going OVER

Members Only: Two more picks

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1: Nevada over Texas on the Moneyline: Again, Vegas believes in the lower seed, while AccuScore thinks the selection committee got the seeding correct. AccuScore calculates that Nevada is 55.3% to win straight up, while the odds suggest Nevada is 48.5% to win. There’s value on the moneyline here.

Midwest Region: NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2017

Written by Rohit Ghosh

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2017 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Midwest Region

The Midwest Region -- filled with uptempo offenses and prolific backcourts -- features guards like Frank Mason III, Jawun Evans, Monte Morris, Derrick Walton, and Tyler Dorsey, to name a few.

While many pundits initially picked Kansas to have a deep run, certain matchups in this region suggest the road won't be so easy.

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The No. 1 Seed

Kansas had a disappointing loss to TCU in the Big 12 tourney, but they're just what their record (28-4) says they are -- really good. They finished the regular season with an 8-2 record against the RPI top 50 and enters the Big Dance for the second straight year as the top seed.

How far should you have them in your bracket?

Michigan State may not have the consistency fans are looking for, but have the coaching and talent to make another deep run. AccuScore sim data has Kansas' journey ending in the round of 32 against the Spartans. Bold.

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Double-digit Seed to Watch

Keep an eye on No. 11 Rhode Island, a top-25 team at one point this season. AccuScore sim data absolutely loves Creighton to go far, but don't expect that first-round matchup against the Atlantic 10 champs to be a cakewalk. Rhode Island does have wins over Cincinnati and VCU.

Chalk

The Midwest region -- in terms of AccuScore sim data -- looks to be the most susceptible to lower seeds making it to the Sweet 16 and on.

With the Spartans knocking off the Jayhawks in the second round, the field opens up for a team like No. 4 Purdue to knock on the door of the Final Four.

No. 2 Louisville would also benefit from the early Kansas loss, but the sims suggest Creighton's recent play will be too much for even the defensive-minded Cardinals.

AccuScore sim data has Purdue and Creighton matching up for a spot in the Final Four. Purdue last reached the Final Four in 1980.

Final Word

Numbers don't like and AccuScore's history in tournament-style events is proven. With Purdue getting that kind of value, it's tough to shy away from a wager.

At the time of publication, Kansas is the favorite in this region, getting +200 odds. Louisville (+350), Oregon (+450) and Purdue (+600).

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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2018 - East Region

Written by AccuScore Staff
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2018 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: East Region

Villanova is not considered the overall no. 1 seed, but it seems to be the consensus candidate to win the Eastern bracket, only AccuScore's computer doesn't think it's a given. Nova has a particularly easy route to the Sweet 16, with only Virginia having better odds to make it past the first four days of madness. Based on AccuScore's simulations, Villanova has a 28.28% chance of reaching the Final Four and an 8.47% chance of winning the National Championship, which are the best odds of any team in the East bracket. Only, Purdue is on Villanova's heels with a 27.89% chance to reach the Final Four and an 8.48% chance of winning it all. Wichita State's odds of making the Final Four are 21.54%, so there is a clear drop off from Purdue and Villanova.

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AccuScore projects Villanova to cruise past Redford and Virginia Tech before putting down the Shockers in the Sweet 16. Likewise, Purdue is expected to demolish Cal State Fullerton before handily beating Arkansas. The game against Texas Tech is a bit trickier, but the East looks like it will come down to a Villanova vs Purdue showdown in the Elite 8. That's a close game, and even though Villanova has better odds to win the tournament, the computer likes Purdue to pull the upset and advance as a no. 2 seed out of the East. Again, this is a close game and both teams are capable of winning it all if they can get by each other. Only one will advance out of the East, and in this case, AccuScore is picking Purdue on the head-to-head.

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