• Cowboys vs. Cardinals: MNF Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Cowboys vs Cardinals: NFL MNF Picks

    Week 3 finishes up Monday night as the Arizona Cardinals host the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup featuring a pair of playoff hopefuls struggling to get out of the gates. Arizona's a 3-point home underdog with the total set at 46.5.

    Vegas Odds and AccuScore Simulation Data

    AccuScore's 10,000 simulations actually have the Cardinals as five-point 'dogs in this matchup, indicating even more confidence in the road favorites than do Vegas odds. The Cowboys cover a 3-point spread in over 53 percent of the sims, a shade above the odds listed in Vegas. The Cowboys covering a -3 spread are being offered in most books at -105, suggesting a 51 percent chance of happening.

    All of AccuScore's NFL Monday Night Football Picks


    Much of the hope heading into this season for Arizona rested largely on the perception that QB Carson Palmer would bounce back from last year's struggles. That hasn't been in the case through two weeks. He's averaging 300 yards per game, but is completing just 54.8 percent of his passes; he's tied for the third-most interceptions in the NFL, having thrown for twice as many INTs (4) than TDs (2).

    Palmer is projected to finish Monday night's matchup with 249 yards -- averaging 1.5 TDs and 0.5 INTs per sim.

    Cowboys QB Dak Prescott struggled against the Denver Broncos in Week 2, but it's safe to project he'll bounce back. Denver just might have the best defense in the league, and the Cardinals won't have that level of success in forcing turnovers. Prescott is projected to finish with 275 yards -- averaging 1.7 TDs and 0.5 INTs per sim.

    What to Watch For

    The Cardinals are No. 26 in the league in scoring defense, having given up 48 points in their first two games. Some of this blame does go to the offense, though, with its multiple turnovers that have forced the other side of the ball to play way too many minutes. They gave up 35 points to Matt Stafford and the Lions, and 13 points to an Andrew Luck-less Colts team.

    Dallas forced 0.9 turnovers per simulated matchup. Dallas is above average in total tackles, entering their Week 3 matchup ranked No. 12 in this category. They average just a shade below two QB sacks per sim.

    Betting Trends
    • The Cowboys are 6-3 straight up (SU) in their last nine games on the road.
    • The Cardinals are 3-9 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Cardinals' last nine games.
    • The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games at home.

    Analyst's Pick: Cowboys vs Cardinals

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    Dallas covers in a close matchup on the road. We're expecting good production from the Cowboys' offense. Since Arizona has the weapons to answer, we'll also suggest the OVER.

  • Steelers at Bengals: Free NFL Monday Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Steelers at Bengals - Preview, Odds & Free Analyst Pick

    Week 13 in the NFL finishes up Monday night in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers as fairly heavy home 'dogs. Pittsburgh won the first meeting of the season 29-14.

    Vegas Odds

    The Steelers opened up nearly as a TD-favorite before settling at -4.5 or -5 at the time of publication.

    The total has been steady since opening at 43.

    Betting Line: Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
    Total: 43

    At the time of publication, close to 62 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Pittsburgh.

    56 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    - The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers' last 11 games.
    - The total has gone UNDER in five of the Steelers' last seven games vs the Bengals.
    - The total has gone UNDER in four of the Steelers' last six games on the road vs the Bengals.

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    What to Watch For

    Bengals QB Andy Dalton heads into Week 13 with a 62 percent completion percentage and an 18-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio. Given the change in offensive coordinator and injuries the team has dealt with, Dalton's play has been decent. He's averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, which can be an issue given the fact that the Bengals have run 41 fewer plays than any other team in the NFL.

    Dalton is projected to finish with 250 passing yards and 1 TD. He averages close to twice as many INTs per sim (1.1) as he does INTs (0.6).

    The Bengals defense has been their calling card this year, ranking fifth in the league in completion percentage against.

    The Bengals defense averages 1-plus takeaways n the sims, with there being a slightly higher probability of a pick than a recovered fumble. QB Ben Roethlisberger averages 0.8 interceptions per sim.

    Steelers WR Antonio Brown is without a doubt one of, if not the best in the game at what he does -- and he's coming off two strong performances. After lighting up Tennessee for 114 yards on 10 receptions and 3 TDs, he finished with 169 on 10 catches for TDs.

    Brown is projected to finish with 85 yards on 7 receptions; he averages 0.5 TDs per sim.

    Free Analyst's Pick
    The UNDER.

    All of AccuScore's Monday Night NFL Football Picks

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