Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Cowboys vs Cardinals: NFL MNF Picks
Week 3 finishes up Monday night as the Arizona Cardinals host the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup featuring a pair of playoff hopefuls struggling to get out of the gates. Arizona's a 3-point home underdog with the total set at 46.5.
Vegas Odds and AccuScore Simulation Data
AccuScore's 10,000 simulations actually have the Cardinals as five-point 'dogs in this matchup, indicating even more confidence in the road favorites than do Vegas odds. The Cowboys cover a 3-point spread in over 53 percent of the sims, a shade above the odds listed in Vegas. The Cowboys covering a -3 spread are being offered in most books at -105, suggesting a 51 percent chance of happening.
All of AccuScore's NFL Monday Night Football Picks
QBs
Much of the hope heading into this season for Arizona rested largely on the perception that QB Carson Palmer would bounce back from last year's struggles. That hasn't been in the case through two weeks. He's averaging 300 yards per game, but is completing just 54.8 percent of his passes; he's tied for the third-most interceptions in the NFL, having thrown for twice as many INTs (4) than TDs (2).
Palmer is projected to finish Monday night's matchup with 249 yards -- averaging 1.5 TDs and 0.5 INTs per sim.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott struggled against the Denver Broncos in Week 2, but it's safe to project he'll bounce back. Denver just might have the best defense in the league, and the Cardinals won't have that level of success in forcing turnovers. Prescott is projected to finish with 275 yards -- averaging 1.7 TDs and 0.5 INTs per sim.
What to Watch For
The Cardinals are No. 26 in the league in scoring defense, having given up 48 points in their first two games. Some of this blame does go to the offense, though, with its multiple turnovers that have forced the other side of the ball to play way too many minutes. They gave up 35 points to Matt Stafford and the Lions, and 13 points to an Andrew Luck-less Colts team.
Dallas forced 0.9 turnovers per simulated matchup. Dallas is above average in total tackles, entering their Week 3 matchup ranked No. 12 in this category. They average just a shade below two QB sacks per sim.
Betting Trends
• The Cowboys are 6-3 straight up (SU) in their last nine games on the road.
• The Cardinals are 3-9 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 games.
• The total has gone OVER in eight of the Cardinals' last nine games.
• The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games at home.
Analyst's Pick: Cowboys vs Cardinals
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Dallas covers in a close matchup on the road. We're expecting good production from the Cowboys' offense. Since Arizona has the weapons to answer, we'll also suggest the OVER.
