MLB Wednesday: Analyst Free Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Baseball: Analyst's Odds Analysis

We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data don't match up, and we've got exactly that sort of a situation in today's Indians-Twins matchup. At the time of publication, the Twins are home underdogs, getting +150 to +155 on the money line. Most books have the total set at 9.5, with a few still at 9.

More MLB Analysis: AccuScore's Baseball Expert Picks

Betting Trends vs AccuScore Sims

All signs point to Cleveland taking this, as evidenced by the Vegas odds. Even look at some of the applicable betting trends:
- Cleveland is 4-0 straight up (SU) in their last four road games, and 4-0 in last four against right-handed pitchers.
- Minnesota is 0-4 on the other hand in their last four against a pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco heads into his 24th start of the season with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP.
- Whereas the Vegas money line odds indicate the Twins have about a 40 percent chance of winning the matchup, AccuScore sim data has the Twins winning 47 percent of the time.

AccuScore would have listed the home side at +110, suggesting quite a bit of value on the +150 listed in most books. The Twins winning Wednesday’s matchup is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

What the data primarily indicates is the fact the sims expect a more competitive game than do Vegas odds. The Twins cover a +1.5 run spread in over 60 percent of sims.

Pick on the Total

AccuScore sims have the total set at 8, an average of 1.0-1.5 runs lower than the total set in Vegas – indicating a pick on the UNDER. As a whole, the Twins have been outscored by 50 runs this season and their bats haven’t had a lot of momentum of late.

Expecting a close game based on the AccuScore sims – and the UNDER.

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Top Baseball Betting Trends - June 2017

Written by AccuScore Staff
Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

Top Baseball Trends: June 14, 2017

The NBA season is over. The NHL season is over. Football may be here in the blink of an eye, but the dog days of summer provide the opportunity to play long trends and focus on Major League Baseball. AccuScore pointed out some rather glaring trends at the end of May.

At the time, we pointed out two top trends: one for Side Value Picks and one for Moneyline picks.

First, Side Value Picks when the home team was between 45% and 55% to win were +1,533 units profit at the end of May. A couple weeks later, that same trend is now + 2598 units profit, nearly 70% increase in profits.

Second, Moneyline picks where the home team was favored between 45% and 55% were +1,177 units profit. A couple weeks later, that same trend is now +2055 units profit, which is an increase of nearly 75%. We pointed to two major trends we saw as profitable and then told everyone who would listen about them. We can only do so much.

Tonight's MLB Picks: There are a couple games on tonight's schedule that fall into the aforementioned categories, which means these trends apply tonight: Click Here for All of today's MLB Picks

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Here are a few NEW Scorching Hot Trends...

Top Baseball Trends: June 2017

Vegas Home Favorite: AccuScore Moneyline picks - 380-265, 58.9% +2,399
Vegas Home Underdog: AccuScore Side Value Picks – 146-146, 50% +794
Vegas O/U Line is 11+: AccuScore Totals Picks – 14-6-2, 70% +740

Top Baseball Team Trends:

Baltimore Orioles: 21-2, 91.3% +1,483 on all moneyline picks when Vegas lists the Orioles as a road underdog. (This trend was +1,117 in May’s Top Trends)

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