College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks - Ole Miss vs Cal

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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College Football Week 3: Ole Miss vs Cal - Analyst

We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on different sides of the money line and that's exactly the kind of situation we've got in this weekend's Ole Miss-Cali matchup at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA. The Rebels are 4-point road favorites with the total set at 72.

Other Week 3 Analyst Picks: South Florida vs Illinois

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

Whereas Vegas has Ole Miss as the slight favorites, AccuScore sim data actually has the Golden Bears as the slight favorites. Cal's actually getting +160 on the money line, indicating about a 38-to-39 percent chance of happening. Our sim data actually has the home team favored by a point; Cal wins just a shade over 50 percent of sims.

AccuScore sim data would have listed the Bears at at EVEN or -105 odds, indicating a whole lot of value on the +160 as well the +4 spread.

Top AccuScore Betting Trends

All AccuScore Picks vs the Spread
• SEC Team vs Non-SEC Team: 11-5, 69% +550
• Pac-12 Team vs Non-Pac12 Team: 11-5, 69% +550
See all of AccuScore's Week 3 College Football picks

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Non-AccuScore Betting Trends: Ole Miss vs CAL

• Ole Miss is 2-0 against the over/under this season.
• Ole Miss Rebels 0-2 against the spread (ATS) this season.
• Cal is 1-1 against the over/under this season.
• Cal is 1-1 against the spread this season.

What to Watch For

California QB Ross Bowers had a fairly quiet Week 2 performance at Weber State, going for 200 yards, no TDs, after a strong Week 1 outing at North Carolina with four TDs. He's projected to finish Saturday's matchup with close to 350 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT.

This'll be a good test for Cal's new offensive coordinator, Beau Baldwin. According to a report from SB Nation, the Bears rank No. 25 in the nation in rushing IsoPPP -- an explosiveness metric, measure the magnitude of success plays. A successful play occurs when you gain: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

Cal's defense will have to be have a much better performance this week, though. Weber State last week put up 571 total yards of offense, but finished with just 20 points due to three fumbles.

Free Analyst's Pick

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Analyst Says: It's tough to go against a three-star hot trend pick. Taking the points and going with the home 'dogs here.

College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks: 22. South Florida vs Illinois

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

College Football: Week 3 Analyst Picks

The line opened with South Florida as 14.5-point favorites, moving a good few points up over the week. Compared to the opening line, AccuScore data had the home team as even heavier favorites, listing the Bulls as 18-point favorites to open. The line in Vegas has since moved closer to AccuScore data.

South Florida covers a 17.5-point spread in just 51.3 percent of simulations; they covered the 14.5-point spread in close to 56 percent of simulations.

Simply put, there's not a whole lot of value in laying the points for the home side to cover.

Top NCAA AccuScore Trends: Week 3

• Sim O/U difference vs Vegas: 3-3.5
- All Picks(Spreads + Totals): 35-16-1, 68% +1,740
-Moneyline Picks: 23-3, 88%

• All Close Games (-4 to +4 spread)
- All Picks (Spreads + Totals): 24-15, 61% +750

Top AccuScore Trends: Spread Picks
• SEC Team vs Non-SEC Team: 11-5, 69% +550
• Pac-12 Team vs Non-Pac12 Team: 11-5, 69% +550

Top AccuScore Trends: Over/Under Picks
• MWC Team vs Non-MWC Team: 13-3, 81% +970

Top AccuScore Trends: Moneyline Picks
• AAC Team vs Non-AAC Team: 10-1, 91%

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Top South Florida vs Illinois: Betting Trends

• Illinois is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
• Illinois is 6-15 straight up (SU) in its last 21 games.
• Illinois is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games on the road.
• Illinois is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road.
• South Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
• South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of South Florida's last 16 games

Public Perception

At the time of publication, close to 70 percent of the public was on the road team to cover a 17.5-point spread. It might be a good idea to keep monitoring how much of the public is on Illinois.

Analyst's Pick

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Revealed After Game

South Florida is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home. We'll focus on that when picking this matchup.

The two sides have opposite styles of play, one focusing on offense and the other on defense, but South Florida just is better prepared for this matchup. They've already faced some varied styles this season and have more talent to adapt over the course of a game. It's not an easy play, but we'll lay the points and take the home side.