• ACC - College Football Conference Previews 2018

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    College Football Previews 2018: ACC

    For the 2018 College Football season, AccuScore has a series of quick-hit conference previews that will be released daily. The series starts with the ACC

    The Winner: Does anyone really expect anyone other than Clemson to sit atop the ACC when it's all said and done? They've lost just two regular games in the last three years. They do have a few tough road matchups this year vs Florida State and Texas A&M, so AccuScore data would suggest staying away from an OVER/UNDER pick here. Sim data has Clemson winning 10.5 games.

    The OVER: Louisville averages close to 8.5 wins on average in AccuScore sims, suggesting an pick on the OVER (7). They have a tough start to the season with Alabama early, and a trip to Clemson, but they get the favorable schedule of getting both NC State and Florida State at home.

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    The UNDER: There's a fairly large discrepancy between the projected win total for NC State (7.5) and AccuScore simulations. The Wolfpack average just 4.6 wins, suggesting quite a bit of value on the pick. They don't have too difficult of a start to the season, but the September 15 matchup vs West Virginia should help to dictate how their season pans out. AccuScore sims project a 43-23 loss for NC State that day.

    All of AccuScore's College Football Picks

    Stay Away: With the total set at 5.5 for Pittsburgh, the OVER seems like the gut reaction. They should be able to get 6 wins, right? Their schedule worries us this year, with road matchups vs Central Florida and Penn State that can go either way. They're 8-8 in ACC play in the last two years, and with games vs Syracuse and Wake Forest this year, there's just no guarantee. Pitt wins closer to five or six games according to AccuScore simulations.

    Other Previews:
    Big 10 Football Preview
    Big 12 Football Preview
    SEC Football Preview
    PAC 12 Football Preview

  • How To: AccuScore's NFL Picks and College Football Picks Explained

    Understanding AccuScore’s Football Picks

    Need help understanding AccuScore's football picks? AccuScore may look a bit different because we've updated our look to make things easier for our members. It's still the same great simulations and layout, but now, it's easier to read than ever.

    There are two views: The Graph View and the Grid View (better for college football).

    The Graph View: UPDATED

    After updating our graph view, spread and totals picks are clearer to see than ever before.

    Football Graph View

    For each pick above, we have assigned a number to help explain how to read each of AccuScore's expert picks for every game: Totals, Spreads, Side Value and Moneyline:

    1. The Totals pick in this example is "OVER 45.5 points" and 60.9% of simulations have resulted in the games going OVER. This is listed as a one star trends pick (out of 4 stars).

    2. The spread pick in this example is "PHI -9.5" because Philadelphia covered the 9.5 points spread in 51.3% of simulations. This pick is identified as a 2-star trends pick, which serves as a good example to remind you that the trends rating is not based on the computer's probability but on the historical trends of how the computer has performed with the teams and other historical trends.

    3.The side value pick was the New York Giants, because the moneyline odds at +340 offered 3.4% value when converting Vegas odds into a percentage. This is also represented by the inside circle in the graph. The Vegas odds were giving the Giants a 22.8% chance to win, while AccuScore calculated that the Giants had a 26% chance to win. This means there is 3.2% side value on picking the Giants at +340.

    4.The moneyline pick is pretty straight forward in that AccuScore's simulations resulted in the Philadelphia Eagles winning 73.9% of the time in this example. If there is any team that is more than 50% to win, it is the moneyline pick.

    If you click on the “full forecast” box, you can play around with slider tools that allow you to adjust the spreads and totals lines to see AccuScore's probabilities at various other lines. Also, the full forecast has player projections for both teams.

    Grid View

    To get to the grid view, take a look at the red arrow above and click on the three lines. The graph symbol allows you to switch back to the graph view. Due to the number of games in College Football, the grid view is now the default view. Also, you can type in team abbreviations in the search box (green arrow) and find any game you’re looking for faster. The graph view is the default view for most other sports, but switching to the grid view is the same process for every sport.

    Understanding the Grid View

    Football Grid View

    Let’s use an example from a college football game to illustrate the grid view: LATech vs Arkansas

    Let’s go column by column to understand what everything means in the grid view. Acc Sim% simply lists AccuScore’s simulation calculations, which list Arkansas as an 88% favorite. Conversely, Louisiana Tech only won 11% of simulations. That’s easy enough.

    Odds% is AccuScore converting the public odds into a percentage. Before you freak out and think something is wrong, the percentage is over 100% because bookies add a bit of juice to their end. While we removed that juice in the past and converted odds to be out of 100%, leaving the juice in actually allows for a clearer look at true side value because it doesn’t arbitrarily push down Vegas’ odds as a percentage.

    In this case, Vegas oddsmakers are saying there is a 97.22% chance of Arkansas winning and only a 5.69% chance of LATech winning. Looking at it side-by-side with AccuScore’s Sim%, the side value is clearly on LATech.

    The next column is “PS” and “ACC PS.” The top number is the point spread set by bookmakers, which is Arkansas -25. Below it, AccuScore lists the point spread line we believe it should be: Arkansas -21. Since Vegas is overinflating Arkansas, the point spread pick is Louisiana Tech.

    Next, we have the “OU” and “Acc OU” column. Similar to the last column, the first number (52) is the Over/Under line set by Vegas oddsmakers. The number below it is the Over/Under line AccuScore calculated. Since AccuScore’s line is higher than the public odds, the pick is the OVER.

    The final three columns are ML, SV, and Total, and all of them simply list the star-rated picks. As the season continues, we will have more trends and 3 and 4-star picks. Using the arrows, members can sort games by star-ratings and instantly find all games offering 4-star totals picks.

    Note: AccuScore still offers the ability to change lines and change spreads by clicking on the team names in the grid view. Also, you can see written previews for every game, top trends and player projections.