College Football Win Totals Picks: Part 2

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

2017 NCAA Football Win Totals Lines and Analyst Picks: Part 2

Last week, AccuScore previewed the college football season by looking at some big over/under lines for teams like USC, Alabama and Clemson, so we decided to continue that thought as we ramp up for the first full week of college football. Yes, it's time to properly launch the 2017 NCAA Football season.

Mississippi State O/U wins: 5.5
5.5 games, really? From our data, that just seems disrespectful. They're not going to compete for an SEC title, don't get us wrong, but they have one of the best QBs in the conference and have a favorable schedule. They have some winnable games at home against Kentucky and Ole Miss, and have some road opportunities too, at Arkansas for example. A strong offense led by Nick Fitzgerald will at the very least make them competitive in most games.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

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Nebraska O/U wins: 6
The decision on the Cornhuskers win total is largely dependent on the conference they play in. The only team without a doubt better than them in the Big Ten West is Wisconsin. That means they'll be competitive in the majority of their matchups. A good coach in Mike Riley should tip the scale to just above the set total.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

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North Carolina O/U wins: 7
The Tar Heels didn't only lose Mitchell Trubisky from last season, but also three of his best receivers and running back Elijah Hood. Just too much turnover for LSU transfer QB Brandon Harris to be able to make the best of.

Analyst's Pick: UNDER

Oregon O/U wins: 8
It's all up to Willie Taggart to turn things around this season after Oregon struggled last season under Mark Helfrich. They're a better team this year, without a doubt, but just don't have the talent to compete in the Pac-12 North. Our simulations have the Ducks just a shade below the set total and there's just not any justification to suggest otherwise.

Analyst's Pick: UNDER

Georgia Tech O/U wins: 6.5
Sixteen starters return to the roster this season and it's tough to look past that when looking at the win total line for Georgia Tech. They won nine games last season, and while they won't reach that same mark this season, there's enough on both sides of the ball to get to seven wins. They've have an incredibly consistent ground attack in recent history -- rushing for at least 5.3 yards per carry in every one of the last seven seasons. With the triple-option offense and a well-coached defense, Georgia Tech projects to be competitive in almost every game. Expect a whole lot of games decided by single digits.

Analyst's Pick: OVER

San Jose State v South Florida: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

South Florida at San Jose State: Preview

South Florida travels across the country this Saturday to match up with San Jose State as the NCAA Football season officially kicks off. The Bulls enter the matchup as a 20-to-21-point road favorite, with the total set at 68.5.

South Florida heads into this Week 1 contest having won 18-of-21 games overall going back to last season. They bring back 16 starters and are ready to prove they're deserving of their ranking. San Jose State, on the other hand, enters this season with a new coach in Brent Brennan looking to move past a 4-8 2016 season.

What to Watch For

South Florida marches down the field to the beat of QB Quinton Flowers and he's projected to build off an impressive 2016 season. He's one of the best dual-threats in the nation, finishing 2016 with 2,812 passing yards and 1,530 rushing yards. He had 24 passing TDs and just seven picks to go along with 18 rushing TDs. Flowers lost his main receiving weapon in Rodney Adams, but still can rely on RB D'Ernest Johnson to carry some of the load.

Any chance San Jose St. has at keeping this game close depends largely on the South Florida defense struggling out of the gates in 2017. That unit was very inconsistent last year, allowing over 38 points per contest in the last six games of the season. That average was below 26 in the first seven games of the 2016 season. With Charlie Strong leading the way, all signs point to South Florida being a much better defensive unit this year compared to last -- they're returning 15 of their top 20 tacklers from the year before.

Betting Trends
• South Florida is 15-7 against the spread [ATS] in its last 22 games going back the last two seasons.
• South Florida is 5-0 straight up [SU] in its last 5 games going back to last season.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Florida’s last 7 games going back to last season.
• San Jose State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games going back to last season.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State’s last 7 games going back to last season.

Projected Score & Analyst's Pick

The average score after 10,000 AccuScore sims is 49-19.

South Florida's looking to kick off the season firing on all cylinders. And given the number of starters they're bringing back, I expect South Florida to dominate both sides of the ball, with the offense having some hiccups here and there.

I'll take the Bulls to cover, and the UNDER.