World Cup: Top Bet - Semifinal

For the Group Stages, Round of 16 and the Quarterfinals, AccuScore’s World Cup guru picked out his top bets. In every round, incredibly, he turned a profit. Sure, in the Round of 16 and Quarterfinals, the profit was not exactly anything worth writing home about, but any bettor will tell you that it is not easy to win every round, so we're still impressed.

In all, he has made seven picks and currently stands at +219 in profit. Considering he has a modest record of 4-3 and was robbed on some late game heroics, we’d say he’s not doing all that bad. For the semifinals, he’s got one more pick.

Having watched every match of the 2014 World Cup with an analytical eye, he has a strong inkling on where to derive value and where to make a buck at this point in the tournament. As he reminds us constantly, making World Cup picks is about betting on value, and even if the picks record does not look great at the end of the day, the bank account does.

At first, we thought he was crazy, but hey, he returned nearly 700% profit using this technique last time we asked him to do it for a full European season. As such, we believe, and so should you.

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1. Germany vs Brazil: Germany to advance at 1.962

Okay, so this would be the first bet that’s not even money or better, but boy, it has value. Germany appears to be getting into full gear while Brazil is down its captain, Thiago Silva, and best player, Neymar. While Germany to win in regular time at 2.840 is great value, the knockout rounds in this World Cup have been cagey affairs with teams not fully opening up until the extra time. Brazil will undoubtedly have the crowd behind it and may opt to go a bit more defensive. Even without Silva, the defense will be strong for Brazil, but at some point, the German attack should unlock the Brazilians.

If this match goes to penalty kicks, Manuel Neuer holds a decided edge over Julio Cesar. Cesar may have performed brilliantly against Chile in the shootout, but based on physical attributes and overall talent, Neuer is the right man for this job. It may not be regular time, but Germany should advance. AccuScore gives Germany a 59% chance to go on, and considering the payout, that’s a good value bet.

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