Written by Shahan Ahmed
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European Football Guide: Week of Jan. 19. 2013

European football offers some rather spicy fixtures on the weekend of Jan. 19, 2013.

In the English Premier League, Sunday features Arsenal taking on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in a raucous London derby. After wasting a 2-0 lead during the midweek, the Blues are feeling especially pressured to earn a home result under much-maligned manager Rafa Benitez.

Demba Ba’s January transfer has helped the Blues free themselves of their reliance on Fernando Torres, but Pep Guardiola’s decision to take over Bayern Munich has fans even more frustrated at Stamford Bridge. Rafa is possibly the most-hated manager—interim or permanent— to ever take over the London club.

Arsenal, on the other hand, enters the match with Theo Walcott finally sorting out his contract situation. Walcott has featured as a central striker in recent weeks, and the former Southampton winger leads the team in goals and assists. Walcott’s move to striker has also opened up some playing time for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain on the wing, but the most promising young Gunner remains 21 year-old Jack Wilshere.

With Abou Diaby back in the team and Mohamed Diame rumored to be moving to the Emirates, the Arsenal midfield may finally have the spine it has been missing in recent years.

Also on Sunday, Manchester United travels to White Hart Lane to take on Tottenham Hotspur and avenge a historic early season loss at Old Trafford.

In Serie A, Sunday features a Calcio fan’s wet dream: Inter Milan travels to the Olimpico to take on Francesco Totti’s Roma. Inter is currently in fourth place and Roma is currently in sixth, so both teams are trailing in the race for a Champions League spot for next season. Currently, Juventus, Napoli, and Lazio have control of the European positions.

Elsewhere in Europe, the German Bundesliga is back following an extended winter break. Both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund play on Saturday, and Nuri Sahin is surely a welcomed sight for Jurgen Klopp and company. The non-cup tied midfielder returns to his former team and should play a vital role in their Champions League campaign in February.

In Spain, Real Madrid takes on Valencia at the Mestalla on Sunday. The same two teams met on Tuesday at the Santiago Bernabeu in the Copa del Rey quarter-final. Madrid won the first leg 2-0, and Sunday’s La Liga meeting is rather peculiar because both teams meet again on Wednesday at the Mestalla for the second leg of the Copa del Rey quarter final. Three matches between the same two teams in a nine-day span is a bit mad, but the wacky scheduling provides added drama to this La Liga fixture.

Director’s Picks

After a three week winning streak, the Director’s Picks crapped out last weekend. However, even with that loss, the Director’s picks are 4-2 the last four weeks with 263 units of profit. Right then, there is one more Director's Pick this week, so it is time to start a new winning streak.
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Inter Milan +0.5 at Roma at 1.98
Inter Milan has lost its last four Serie A away matches after starting the season with six away wins. The comforts of the San Siro may be feeling like home, but this team is due for an away win, and a big Sunday match against Roma is the perfect opportunity. Inter has not drawn an away match, but currently, odds are offering nearly even money on an Inter win or draw at the Olimpico.

Roma has not played at home since before the Christmas break, so the friendly confines may as well be foreign confines. The AccuScore computer calculates value on both the draw and an Inter Milan win, so a +0.5 is the right value play. In simulations, Inter won or drew 74.7 percent of the time. Even money with the computer says the odds are three in four is a good bet. Take it.