Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Director's Serie A & Premier League Picks

It’s no secret that my picks have not been performing well of late. There are a variety of excuses I can make, but honestly, there’s no point. I choose, instead, to look ahead. It’s not worth the time to celebrate my victories, nor is it worth my time to celebrate my losses. This week, I have three picks that I feel strongly about. Since I have not been performing especially well, I am giving two of these picks for free this week, along with my reasoning.

This is the type of analysis you will receive every week if you are a member:

1. Parma pick’em at 2.080

This pick means that if Parma draws Inter Milan, you get your money back. However, if Parma wins, you get better than even money. Inter Milan is without their manager, Andrea Stramaccioni and star striker Antonio Cassano due to post-match protests following some rather “Italian” refereeing against Cagliara. The decision to not award a penalty was so poor that the club owner also made some comments to the press.

However, the reason for picking against Inter is far more reaching than poor refereeing and a missing manager. Inter is currently injury-ravaged in midfield. Walter Gargano is suspended. Fredy Guarin, Gaby Mudingayi , Dejan Stankovic, and Joel Obi are not available. Wesley Sneijder is questionable in his return, but Inter’s problem is the lack of holding midfielders. Cambiasso and Zanetti will likely play in those roles, and both are able. However, considering the injuries, lack of coach, and that Inter lost 3-0 in an away match on Thursday, Parma has plenty going in its favor.

Also, the AccuScore computer calculates value on picking both the draw and Parma to win at home. Parma won 34.8 percent of simulations and drew 35.9 percent of simulations. Considering Inter only won 29.3 percent of simulations, there is value to be had here.

2. Manchester City to win at 2.81

Chelsea may be the home side, but this team with a new manager is on a bad slide. Chelsea lost 3-0 in Turin on Tuesday, fired Roberto Di Matteo on Wednesday, and hired Rafa Benitez on Thursday. Whatever one makes of the Rafa decision, the players seemed to like Di Matteo, and this is not a bunch that necessarily need to go out and prove their worth to the new manager. There will be plenty of confusion as Benitez tries to install a new system without enough time to get it right.

With players on short rest, Chelsea would be exposed anyhow. However, with Manchester City being eliminated from the Champions League on Wednesday, full focus is on winning the Premier League again. Carlos Tevez was only used as a substitute during midweek, so he should be in the starting eleven. Also, City played at home, so their travel is much easier than Chelsea’s. Coming to Stamford Bridge without Captain John Terry, a new and unpopular boss, and a new unfamiliar style on offer, Manchester City could not have picked a better time to visit.

The AccuScore computer agrees with me on this one. Bookmakers are giving Chelsea a 38.1 percent chance of winning. Our computer thinks that numbers should be 23.1 percent. Meanwhile, oddsmakers give Manchester City a 34.9 percent chance of winning. Our computer gives City a 50 percent chance. There’s value in picking Manchester City this weekend.

There is ONE MORE PICK for members only. Sign in now to see a pick on AC Milan vs Juventus… if you’re not a member, Try AccuScore Free for 7 days without obligation…

3. Juventus to win at 2.250

Both Juventus and AC Milan played during the midweek. Both teams won and looked good. However, Juve is simply a better and more developed team than AC Milan. Further, Juve played in Italy during midweek, while AC Milan travelled to Anderlecht.

Getting better-than even money for the Champions is always worth a gamble, in my mind. The computer puts Juve’s chances at winning at 53.3 percent, well above the oddsmakers, who have Juve at 43.6 percent to win. Personally, I believe Juventus is the best team in Italy, and with Pirlo pulling the strings at the San Siro…take this bet.