Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Week of January 5, 2013

Director's Top Betting Picks for La Liga & Serie A

The last two weeks, our Director of European football is 3-0 in his “Director’s picks” with 356 units of profit, assuming 100 units were placed on each pick. That means he picked on value to ensure followers made more money back than they risked. It is a risk reward strategy, but it is a strategy that works. With the more important half of the season upon us, our Director will continue to make picks every weekend.

This week, he’s got two picks. He’s using one pick to celebrate the return of La Liga from winter break, and he’s making one pick to celebrate the return of Serie A. He’s not just a betting junkie, so he would like to remind all European football fans to watch the FA Cup with Wesh Ham United v. Manchester United, Southampton v. Chelsea (with new signing Demba Ba), and Queens Park Rangers v. West Bromwich Albion especially on his radar.

In La Liga, he would like to remind everyone to tune into the local Barcelona derby between Espanyol and Barcelona and to keep an eye on an injured and out-of-sorts Real Madrid taking on Real Sociedad.

Finally, he thinks the return of the Serie A is definitely worth watching with Inter Milan v. Udinese and Roma v. Napoli at the top of his must-watch matches of the weekend.

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1.Malaga to win over Deportivo La Coruna at 2.390

Malaga is fourth in the Spanish table and has advanced to the knockout rounds of the Champions League. The team is proving over and over again that it belongs in Europe and that it belongs near the top of the table.

Deportivo La Coruna is the bottom club of Spain’s first division with 12 points after 17 rounds. With four losses in eight home matches, Deprotivo is not an especially strong team at home this season. Malaga only has two losses in eight matches, to the statistics and form are definitely on Malaga’s side.

AccuScore’s super computer simulated this match 10,000 times to arrive at probabilities for this match and compared those probabilities to current public odds to see if there is any value on picking Malaga. The compute gives Malaga a 44.8 percent chance of winning on Saturday, while odds makers have Malaga at 41.0 to win. Although not massive, there is value on picking Malaga.

At 2.390 for Malaga to win, meaning 100 units placed on Malaga will return 239 units (139 units of profit), this is good value bet with returns exceeding the risk.

2. Napoli to win over Roma: 2.07

These teams are not far apart in the table or in their general playing ability. However, Napoli is a strong home side at the San Paolo. Napoli is on 34 points and Roma is on 32 points after the winter break, but Napoli has only lost once at home in nine matches. Roma, on the other hand, is losers in four of their nine away matches.

Roma is riding high on a six-match Serie A winning streak, but the winter break has a way of freezing momentum and making the season seem like it is starting anew. Napoli was on the decline during the break after losing two of their last three, but this pick is about value and playing the odds.

The AccuScore computer puts Napoli at 55.9 percent to win the match in simulations. The public odds currently put Napoli at 47.6 percent, so the computer is calculating significant value on Napoli coming away with an important three points on Sunday. The computer expects some goals too, even with Osvaldo questionable due to transfer dealings.