Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Director's Picks: Arsenal vs Swansea & Dortmund vs Bayern

There are some big matches this weekend. Atletico Madrid takes on Real Madrid in the Madrid derby, Dortmund takes on Bayern Munich in Germany, and the Premier League offers a variety of interesting fixtures. As always, AccuScore’s Director of European Football kicks off the weekend with his picks:

Free Pick: Arsenal vs Swansea
Swansea +1 at 2.200

Swansea is playing good football of late. Getting a goal against the Gunners is not just good value, it is great value. Arsenal has drawn its last two matches. Swansea has won or drawn its last five. Getting better than even odds is a no-brainer for a team that is playing well at the moment. This match is at the Emirates and both teams played during the midweek. Still, I like the Swans to get at least a point. If not, they should still keep this match close.

AccuScore’s computer has value on Swansea winning and the draw, so the computer agrees with this pick. Arsenal only won by two or more goals in 33.5 percent of the 10,000 simulations the computer performed. Even with Giroud and Walcott the most likely scorers in the match, the computer finds value on Swansea and the draw when analyzing the odds.

Our Director of European football has more picks for members only. So if you’re not a member, join AccuScore today! You’ll get access to the computer’s picks for every match in this season’s Top 4 European leagues, including the English Premier league. Members, sign in now for another pick on Bayern Munich versus Borussia Dortmund...non members Join Now.

Members Only Pick: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
Under 2.5 and 3 at 2.080

Many thing Bayern has already won the German league for all intents and purposes with a 10 point lead on the competition after 14 rounds. Dortmund’s Champions League focus has them 11 points back of their Saturday opponents. However, this pick is about goals, not wins.

In the season opening German Super Cup, Bayern won 2-1. Last season, these two teams met on three occasions and the teams combined for the Over only once. In my opinion, this pick is a coin flip on whether it will go over or under. However, the oddsmakers are giving better than even money on the game going under. When a coin flip pays better than even money, I see vale here.