by Shahan Ahmed 10th February, 2012
I went 1-2 last weekend on some tough plays. I picked Manchester United to win rather than take the Pick’em and it was my own hubris that cost me in the end. That’s part of the game, though, so the plan is always look ahead and never look back…looking ahead, there is some smashing action in the Bundesliga this weekend. Schalke and Borussia Monchengladbach are set to do battle, and Dortmund host Bayer Leverkusen. This should be another wonderful weekend in Germany, and 2 of this week’s picks are Bundesliga specials. After all, the Bundesliga has been a large part of my 37-19 record this season, still hovering at 2,342 units of profit.
Along with the Bundesliga, don’t forget to check out the Liverpool v Manchester United showcase at Old Trafford. Nani is out, but Rooney, Suarez, Gerrard, and the majority of the biggest names in the 2 most successful clubs in English history will be available. Also in England, Newcastle United will push forward team Demba against a relatively healthy Spurs squad at White Hart Lane (Van der Vaart is still out injured).
Serie A serves up Milan v Udinese, and with Ibrahimovic suspended, Udinese have a chance to really strike a blow to Milan’s title defense. Anyhow, before I get too lost in fixtures, let’s take a look at my picks for this weekend. As a note, the Champions League is starting up, so I will start a new Champions League series of picks in the upcoming weeks. Without further delay…
Top 3 Picks for the Weekend of 10th February, 2012
1: Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen: Under 2.5 and 3 goals
Bremen’s goal scoring machine, Claudio Pizarro is suspended. Arnautovic has been good when he has started, but he is hardly reliable. With Bable suspended for Hoffenheim, the attack on both sides is a bit shaky.
63.1% of AccuScore’s simulations ended with these two teams combining for 2 of fewer goals. Ultimately, an over/under pick comes down to trends, and we have some good ones here. AccuScore has a 7-4 record when projecting value on picking the under for matches involving Hoffenheim. Also, AccuScore is 3-1 when projecting value on picking the under with Werder Bremen. AccuScore projecting value is based on greater than 50% of simulations ending in either an Over or Under, in this case, 63% of sims were under.
Members: Log in Now to see the rest of this week’s Picks. My picks are profitable beyond expectations, but AccuScore also gives you expert picks for every Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, and Champions League match for the rest of the season… Join Now
2: Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen: Hoffenheim +0.5 (2.000)
Bremen are expected to start a newer look defense with Nalo and Prodl injured. Hoffenheim are a solid team and despite having a few injuries of their own, they provide good value for a draw or a win. AccuScore’s simulations projected value on picking both the draw and a Hoffenheim win, and 56.% of simulations resulted in Hoffenheim collecting at least 1 point. The trends don’t support it, but it’s not a bad play at even odds against a team without
their best player.
3: Fiorentina v Parma: Split Picks – 50 units on Fiorentina to win (3.280) & 50 units on the Draw (3.280)
AccuScore has value on both the draw and the win for Fiorentina. Fiorentina’s value on the draw this season has yielded 1000 units in profit. Parma’s value on the draw has yielded 600 units on the season. With 64.9% of AccuScore’s simulations resulting in either a draw or a win for Fiorentina, this is not a bad. Take it.
Also be sure to check out my recent post on the Champions League blog: Be Proud, Liverpool FC .
