Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Group C: Curiously Confusing…Could it be Croatia?
Torres and Silva combined for 3 goals against Ireland
Update: Full Time Result - Spain 1-0 Croatia
Spain wins Group C and now await the 2nd place team in Group D, either France, England, or Ukraine. Jesus Navas scored the only goal in the match on a pass delivered by Andreas Iniesta. Spain dominated over 70% of possession, but Croatia came close on the break on a couple of occasions. Iker Casillas made a key save on a point blank header, and Spain survived the force of Croatia's counter attack. Italy also advanced with a 2-0 win over Ireland, and now, the Italians play the winner of Group D.
Update: Official Starting XI:
Spain:
Casillas, Alba, Ramos, Pique, Arbeloa, Xabi Alonso, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Torres, Silva
Croatia:
Pletikosa, Strinic, Scildenfeld, Corluka, Vida, Rakitic, Vukojevic, Pranjic, Modric, Srna, Mandzuic
Croatia v Spain - Spain’s seemingly simple task
The Spaniards have a seemingly simple scenario. If Spain wins or draws its final match against Croatia, Spain advances to the quarter finals. Spain should win, as Spain should win every match. Croatia, however, is hardly an opponent to be overlooked. Despite being outplayed for most of the day, Croatia managed to take an invaluable point against Italy. Also, Croatia clobbered Ireland 3-1 to start group play.
Truthfully, Italy outplayed Croatia but for one mistimed header by Giorgio Chiellini and one fantastic touch and finish by Mario Mandzukic . Mandzukic is tied for top scorer with three goals at this year’s finals on 4 shots, all of which have been on target. If he can manage another moment of execution against Spain, Mandzukic would be unaccompanied at the top of the scoring list. AccuScore calculated Mario Mandzukic to have a 30.6% chance of scoring against Spain, making him Croatia's most likely scorer.
On the other side of the ball, Fernando Torres is firing again for Spain. Two goals against Ireland surely did wonders for the Chelsea striker’s confidence and his spot in the starting eleven. Although Cesc Fabregas came on late to display his ball striking abilities, Spain showed the need for a point of focus in attack during the 1-1 draw with Italy. Also, Fabregas coming on as a substitute and scoring only reinforces that he is a productive option off the bench for this team (I do feel sad for Negredo and Llorente, particularly Llorente).
Mandzukic has not put a shot off target in 2 matches
Croatia certainly had chances against Italy, but the Italians tended to have the better looks and the better build ups. When Spain plays against Croatia on Monday night, the Spaniards will likely have a similar story line but improve on Italy’s 52% possession against Croatia. Spain enjoys having the ball, and they don’t like giving it up. The Spaniards control the ball for about 60% of the time, if not higher. Croatia should have chances, though Spain’s style only allows brief glimpses of the goal to opponents. But a couple glimpses is all Croatia may need…
Other Match: Italy vs Ireland - Can the legendary Giovanni Trapattoni earn a classic Italian draw against his home country?
Group C Scenarios - Simple Explanation, Spanish Style:
A win, Spain would go in as winner of group C. A draw, it is all rather more complicated for all members of Group C. It may be time to bring out the scenarios that make school boys smile at the possibilities:
If Spain & Croatia draw by a score of 0-0 (there have been no 0-0 draws at Euro 2012, knock on wood), Italy would win the group with a win against Ireland. If Italy losses or draws against Ireland, Spain goes in as the Group winner and Croatia also advances.
If Spain & Croatia draw by a score of 1-1, Spain advances, but Italy can still win the group with a 4-0 or higher victory against Ireland. Italy, incidentally, would also need to win 3-1 or better just to advance. So, the Croats would do well if they can manage a scoring draw.
If Spain and Croatia draw by a score of 2-2 or higher, Spain and Croatia both advance. With this scoreline, Italy would be out, and questions of possible collusion have hit the Italian media. Of course, the Italians would be afraid of this type of potential situation. A high scoring draw would leave Spainish, Croatian, and neutral fans content; however, the Italians would go home in tears to match-fixing, corruption, crime, and crisis. Coincidentally, in Euro 2004, Italy won its final group match against Bulgaria but went home due to a 2-2 draw between Denmark and Sweden.
If Italy does not win—a 31.3% chance according to the computer— the Italians are out. As for Croatia, it is also simple: win against Spain and win Group C, a 25.9% chance. According to the computer, there's a higher chance of Italy losing or drawing against Ireland than Croatia winning against Spain. Ireland was eliminated after its second group stage loss, so the Irish have their bags packed ahead of the final match.
Now, that wasn’t all that complicated, was it?
