By Pete Kaenmaki

AC Milan vs. Palermo – midfielders missing

Milan will be hosting Sicilian side Palermo late on Sunday evening in the 10th round of Serie A. From their regular starters Milanese team will be without Sulley Muntari and more importantly Riccardo Montolivo, who hasn’t yet been able to shake off his injury that has kept him sidelined all of the early season. In coach Inzaghi’s 4-3-3 formation the midfielders are in a crucial role. Vegas are offering a sub-60 percent probability for AC Milan, but we at Accuscore beg to differ. According to our simulation engine and the statistical models it uses, Rossoneri aren’t as big favorites. What kind of influence will these absences have on the clash in our opinion?

Reminder: For every Serie A match, AccuScore has Serie A Betting Picks and updated Odds

Milan – without Muntari and Montolivo

After 10,000 simulations Accuscore’s computer tells us that without Muntari and Montolivo AC Milan are 52.8 percent favorites to take home all three points and that Rossoneri would average 1.55 goals on Sunday.

Milan – with Muntari and Montolivo

Now what would be the situation if the midfield duo would be able to start the match after all? Let the simulations roll and decide. With Muntari and Montolivo available Milan would win the clash with a probability of 57.5 percent and would average 1.68 goals, which means a good 0.13 goals more than without the dynamic duo.

Replacing Schürrle with Costa:
In conclusion, Accuscore’s computer calculates the effect of these injuries clearly influential for the hosts as without them the probability of the home win is nearly five percentage points smaller. It is rare a pair of midfielders have this big of an influence on the team, but this 4-3-3 formation really requires a lot from the midfielders.