By Tomi Rantanen
The Agüero Effect
Sergio Agüero’s hopes of breaking a record of scoring 20 goals before New Year were cruelly shattered by innocent-looking fall during the match against Everton. The Argentinian limped off and was later diagnosed with damaged knee-ligaments and will face the sidelines for as long as six weeks.
Reminder: For every British Premier League match, AccuScore has Premier League Betting Picks and updated Odds
Agüero’s injury is a massive blow for Manchester City, not only in Champions League but in the domestic competition as well. The prolific striker has scored 14 of 32 goals of the Manchester club and assisted on few others. Problems arise when looking for replacements up front, especially with the do-or-die Champions League match against Rome midweek.
Edin Dzeko, who has scored twice in Premier League this season, is struggling with fitness after picking a knock early November and hasn’t started since October. Other replacement option, Stevan Jovetic was rested against Everton because of a hamstring problem and is recovering day-to-day.
If the worst comes to the worst, Manuel Pellegrini might have to push 18-year-old midfielder Jose Pozo to attacking role for the match agains Leicester on the weekend. Here’s how AccuScore match simulation engine predicts the match to go without Agüero in the lineup:
| Teams |
Line |
Line% |
ACC% |
Goals |
| Leicester |
7.53 |
13.2 |
18.1 |
0.79 |
| Manchester City |
1.50 |
66.0 |
55.3 |
1.59 |
| Draw |
4.76 |
20.8 |
26.6 |
|
And here’re the simulations with the best starting XI, including the Argentinian goal-scoring machine:
| Teams |
Line |
Line% |
ACC% |
Goals |
| Leicester |
7.53 |
13.2 |
12.2 |
1.06 |
| Manchester City |
1.50 |
66.0 |
68.7 |
2.54 |
| Draw |
4.76 |
20.8 |
19.1 |
|
As we can easily see, Manchester City will rise and fall with Sergio Agüero and his scoring.
The Citizens can count themselves lucky with the easy schedule ahead, in which they’ll take on the likes of Leicester, Crystal Palace, WBA, Burnley and Sunderland in Agüero’s absence. Against the bottomfeeders they might be able to pick up points needed to stay in the fight for the title.
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