by Shahan Ahmed
Follow @perfectpass on Twitter
The end of the domestic football season...
The Bundesliga ended last weekend, but this weekend marks the end of the other three major European football leagues: English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, and Italian Serie A. For each league, AccuScore experts have analyzed the Champions League battles, relegation struggles, and most profitable AccuScore trends on the season.
This season, our expert made 88 picks using the Super Computer and his personal expertise. His record was an impressive 53-35, 60%. He made a profit of 2,985 units, a return on investment of 597% on the 500 units he started with on the 21st of October. View all archived Expert Picks.
As this is the end of the season, I have 3 more picks. 1 for every league, Free! However, there is 1 hidden pick for members only. It's a pick for the German Cup between the top 2 sides in Germany: Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Members: Sign in and check the bottom of this page for the Bonus pick...
English Premier League:
Champions League:
Arsenal, Tottenham, and Newcastle are separated by a measly 2 points entering the final weekend. Arsenal has the inside track on 67 points, and a draw should do enough to see the Gunners finish top 4 regardless. However, a 4th place finish may not be good enough. Chelsea is in position to snatch a Champions League spot with a win in the Champions League final.
Arsenal plays away to West Bromwich Albion in Roy Hodgson’s last match before he takes over the England job. Meanwhile, the man everyone thought was going to be the boss of the Three Lions, Harry Redknapp, is set to host a London derby against Fulham. In order to avoid total humiliation at his team’s 2nd half collapse, ‘Arry must collect 3 points on the final day. Newcastle United need a slip up from the two London clubs and maximum points as they travel to Goodison Park and face Everton.
Relegation :
Wolves and Blackburn are going down. Bolton is currently also in the drop zone and sit 2 points back of Queens Park Rangers. Unfortunately for QPR, the London based club must travel to the Eithad and try to steal points away from Manchester City. Man City is a win away from the Premier League title, and the Manchester Blues have only dropped points in 1 of their 17 matches at home this season. Bolton, meanwhile, travels away to Stoke City who is playing for nothing. Plenty of plot twists and turns expected.
Premier League Pick:
Parlay Wigan Athletic to win at 1.592 with Manchester United to win at Sunderland at 1.431. 100 units returns a profit of 128 units. Sunderland hasn’t been playing well and has absolutely nothing to play for, and Wigan is safe but still playing good football. Wolves are down and out.
Premier League Top Trends:
All Premier League Side Value: 162-358; +4,038 units
2 Star Totals: 36-22; +1,076
All Premier League Totals: 120-103; +620
Top Team trends:
Arsenal Side Value on the Road: 12-13; +1,800
Aston Villa Value on Draw: 7-8; +1,000
Blackburn Totals: 20-6; +1,200
Chelsea Value on Losing: 7-14; +2,300
Liverpool Value on Losing: 9-16; +1,400
Newcastle Value on Winning: 14-12; +1,700
La Liga:
Champions League:
Malaga, Atletico Madid, and Levante all have a shot at the final Champions League spot. Malaga is currently in line to win the place with 55 points, but Atletico, Mallorca, and Levante are within striking distance. If Malaga slips against Sporting Gijon, Atletico can steal the highly coveted position with a win away to Villarreal. Should Malaga lose and Atletico fail to win, Levante can level Malaga on points with a win against a struggling and tired Athletic Bilbao side. Levante holds the head-to-head tie breaker against Malaga this season. As a side note, Mallorca holds the tie breaker over Levante but not over Malaga. If there is a 3-way tie for 4th place with Malaga, Mallorca, and Levante at 55 points, all hell will break loose. We’ll deal with that when we get there.
Relegation :
Racing Santander and Sporting Gijon are going down. Granada, Villarreal, Rayo Vallecano, and Real Zaragoza area all relegation threatened. With Granada and Rayo playing each other, there are 6 very important points to be had on Sunday. Zaragoza travels to Getafe and Villarreal hosts the Europa Cup Champions, Atleti. Spain’s final day should be massive.
La Liga Pick:
Barcelona v Real Betis – Over 3.5 goals. The AccuScore computer has this match at over 3.5 goals in 52.4% of simulations. The computer is 6-0 this season when picking the over with Barcelona and 8-5 when picking the over in matches involving Betis. These two teams combined for 6 goals last time out, and Barcelona has not failed to score at least 4 goals since the Champions League exit last month.
Sign up now and use the coupon code "euro2012" and get 30% OFF an All-Sports Premium membership. This will give you access to the top trends, picks, and analysis for all of next season. Also, AccuScore will be covering the Euro 2012 competition starting in June. Use the code and you'll get expert picks for every game. Hit 'JOIN NOW' at the top of your screen!
La Liga Top Trends:
4 Star Totals: 3-0; +273 units
Top Team trends:
Athletic Bilbao Totals: 19-8; +900
Espanyol Value on Losing: 8-7; +1,000
Mallorca Picking Under: 5-1 +400
Racing Santander Value on Draw: 10-16; +1,400
Real Betis Value on Winning: 7-8; +1,100
Real Madrid Value on Winning: 24-3; +700
Serie A
Champions League:
Italy losing a Champions League place has really hurt the league in terms of European financial rewards, but it hasn’t had any impact on domestic competitiveness. Inter Milan, Napoli, Lazio, and Udinese can all mathematically qualify for the Champions League on the final day of the season. Inter have the longest odds. Inter needs a massive win (10-0 would be nice), both Napoli and Lazio to either draw or lose, and Udinese to lose by a considerable margin in the final round for both Milan teams to play Champions League football next season. Still, Inter has a slim chance. Since the Nerazzuri play away to Lazio, they can take care of one of those scenarios themselves. Napoli host alleged match-fixers Siena, and Udinese travels to Catania. Udinese is still the most likely side to come away with the final position, as Antonio Di Natale and company have a 2 point lead on 4th place Lazio and a superior goal differential. A draw should do enough to see Udinese through.
Relegation :
Novara and Cesena are down. Lecce is 3 points back of Genoa but has a superior goal differential. Should Genoa lose to Palermo and Leece win away to Chievo, Genoa would go down and Lecce would stay up. Relegation is pretty simple in Italy this time around.
Serie A Pick:
Inter Milan to win at 2.450 away to Lazio. Lazio are one of the most hobbled sides in Italy. Inter are coming off a magnificent high, and their young manager has already staked a claim to a full time position. With Ricky Alvarez and Sneijder combining well and Diego Milito scoring goals, Inter is a good pick at 2.450.
Serie A Top Trends:
All Serie A Totals: 112-85; +1,692 units
All Serie A Side Value: 170-375; +2,837
Top Team trends:
Catania Value on the Draw: 9-5; +1,900
Fiorentina Totals at Home: 5-0; +490
Fiorentina Side Value: 25-34 +2,600
Juventus Value on Draw: 11-13; +2,200
Lazio Picking Over: 11-1; +900
Parma Totals: 13-4; +800
Sign up Now using the Coupon Code "euro2012" and get all of next season's La Liga, Serie A, Premier League and Champions League picks for 30% OFF. Also, you'll get access to the NBA Playoffs, NFL Football, NHL Hockey, MLB Baseball, and every other sport AccuScore covers. Premium previews, game forecasts, and analysis on every game in every major sport with the Super Computer's pick for every contest. Join Now! !
Bonus Members Only Pick
Dortmund v Bayern Munich: Pick Dortmund to win. This is the final match of Dortmund's season and although Bayern will play their best side, Klopp's Dortmund have had Bayern's number the past two seasons with 4 wins in 4 matches. Until it changes, dortmund is the correct play to win. At 2.970, Dortmund is offering good value for a win.
