Match of the Week: Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid

AccuScore’s Super Computer simulated the Real Madrid versus Borussia Dortmund match 10,000 times and Real Madrid is 45.3% to win, Borussia Dortmund is 30.9% to win, and the draw is 23.8% to occur. In terms of value, the computer calculates the odds to have value in picking Dortmund to win. Current odds give Dortmund a 28.2% to win, while the computer gives Dortmund a 30.9%. Real Madrid to win is about right, according to the computer, with odds makers having Los Blancos at 45.4% to win and the computer having Cristiano Ronaldo and company at 45.3% to win.

The most likely scorers are Cristaino Ronaldo at 60% followed by Gonzalo Higuain at 38%. Marco Reus is 36% to score followed by Robert Lewandowski at 33% to score. Ivan Perisic rounds off the top 5 with a 23% probability of scoring.

In terms of the Over/Under, 50% of simulations ended Over 3.0 goals, and only 30.2% of simulations were 2 or fewer goals. This means the computer is certainly leaning toward the Over rather than the Under. Considering the defensive uncertainties and the offensive talent on both teams, three or more goals seems like a likely outcome. Also, having Cristiano Ronaldo playing certainly adds to the chances of seeing some goals. Dortmund is coming off a deflating loss against Schalke in the derby of all German derbies, and Real Madrid is coming off a 2-0 win against Celta Vigo. Still, a match at Dortmund’s home stadium is never an easy ask.