By Tomi Rantanen
PSG vs Barcelona - Injuries and suspensions dragging PSG down
Group-stage rivals Barcelona and PSG meet again in the Champions League quarter-finals. Previous battles have both ended with home team taking the points – 3-1 in Barcelona and 3-2 in Paris. The first leg of the quarter-finals is played tomorrow, Wednesday at Parc des Princes, Paris.
Reminder: For every Champions League match, AccuScore has Champions League Betting Picks and updated Odds
Both of the teams are in fierce contest to capture their respective national league titles and fixtures are piling up nearing the end of the season. PSG have an opportunity to win the legendary quadruple, having already lifted the League Cup as winners, being in the final for French Cup and in contest for Ligue 1 title and Champions League. Their hopes of getting through Barcelona, though, are hit hard by absence of handful of star calibre players.
Goal-scoring machine Zlatan Ibrahimovic is joined in the sidelines by midfielding duo Marco Verratti (suspended) and Thiago Motta (thigh), as well as multitasking defender David Luiz who is suffering from hamstring injury. Even a quality team like PSG will be struggling to fill in the void left by four international star players.
With AccuScore simulation engine, we can simulate the game approx. 10 000 times and see how these absentees affect PSG’s chances to beat the visiting Barcelona on Wednesday.
First, let’s take a look the probabilities with all the players in the lineup:
|
Odds |
Bookers% |
AccuScore% |
Goals |
| PSG |
4.91 |
20.0 |
29.3 |
1.46 |
| Barcelona |
1.793 |
54.7 |
42.5 |
1.88 |
| DRAW |
3.86 |
25.3 |
28.2 |
|
And then we can simulate the game with the actual lineups:
|
Odds |
Bookers% |
AccuScore% |
Goals |
| PSG |
4.91 |
20.0 |
17.8 |
1.18 |
| Barcelona |
1.793 |
54.7 |
60.9 |
2.27 |
| DRAW |
3.86 |
25.3 |
21.3 |
|
The difference between the two starting lineups of PSG seems to be quite remarkable. Barcelona is the favorite in both cases, but PSG snatching at least a home draw would be much more likely with a full and healthy squad - Zlatan scoring some goals maybe, with Luiz and Motta likely preventing a few. All due respect to Ezequiel Lavezzi and Andre Rabiot, but the shoes are just too big to fill.
