Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Top Director’s Picks: Free Premier League Pick

December 7, 2012

Liverpool versus West Ham United: West Ham United to win – 3.240

Andy Carroll and Luiz Suarez are both not playing. Although the best forward for each team is sidelined, this hurts Liverpool far worse than it hurts West Ham United. No offense to Andy Carroll, Luis Suarez is far more important for Liverpool than Carroll is for West Ham.

Players aside, West Ham is at home and being treated like a major underdog. At last check, West Ham was offering 3.240 to win at Upton Park despite picking Chelsea apart 3-1 last weekend.

To compound the advantage, West Ham will have 8 days between games, while Liverpool played in the Europa League on Thursday. Further, Liverpool traveled to Italy, so several key players are on short rest.

70.7% of the AccuScore simulations resulted in West Ham winning or drawing Liverpool. Liverpool only won 29.3% of simulations. The computer calculated significant value on West Ham winning and a little value on the draw.

Finally, West Ham is 3 point above Liverpool in the table. A home team with extra rest that is playing a side that is missing the key player in its attack paying 224 in profit for 100 units sounds good to me.

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AC Milan versus Torino
Milan to win at 2.170

AC Milan is 46.3% to win according to AccuScore and the computer calculates value on Milan winning away to Torino. Milan won its last two matches in Serie A, including a 1-0 win against Juventus. With Stephen El Shaarawy leading the league in scoring with 12 goals, Milan’s future is bright. Kevin Prince-Boateng is not available for Milan but Robinho has been key in Milan’s resurgence as of late. Any other season, Milan would not be offering these types of odds, but at this point, this is good value.

Partly why Milan is providing better than even money is that the Rossoneri played on Tuesday and lost 1-0 to Zenit St. Petersburg. Milan were already through, so Bojan and Pazzini started alongside Boateng in attack. Milan’s expected starting lineup does not expect any of the three players to make the grade. In other words, Milan is not worn out from European competition.

Nocerino, De Jong, El Shaarawy, Robinho, and Mario Yepes all sat on Milan’s bench on Tuesday and the first four names on that list are all nearly guaranteed to start on Sunday. Milan at 2.170 is good value.