Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Director's Picks & Weekend Football Guide:
English Premier League – February 2nd, 2012
Another weekend brings about another set of interesting fixtures across Europe. Well, then, I suppose we should take a look at what is worth watching and deciding whether or not to have a wager.
Let’s start with a Super Saturday:
The English Premier League offers a flurry of rather interesting fixtures. Firstly, Christopher Samba is back in the Premier League. He kicks off the Saturday action making a home debut at Loftus Road. Harry Redknapp and Tony Fernandez paid a pretty penny, but Samba was a one-man team with Blackburn. Samba’s ability to rise above and hammer headers on set pieces was world class, and he is certainly an imposing central defender.
Meanwhile, Arsenal host Stoke City. Both teams were active on deadline day with Arsenal bagging Nacho Monreal from Malaga. However, the left back is cup-tied for the Champions League this season, hinting that Arsene Wenger’s eye has not wavered from finishing top four in the Premier League.
On Sunday, Manchester City hosts Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium.
On deadline day, Liverpool secured Brazilian attacking midfielder Philippe Coutinho from Inter Milan. Coutinho is a 20 year-old Brazilian project that has good creativity and smart dribbling ability. However, all of the Brazilian’s hard work often leads to an easy catch for the keeper. Coutinho’s shot consistently lacked zest when he came to Serie A during the 2010-11 season.
At Liverpool, Coutinho’s youth and creativity may fit in well with Sturridge’s pace and Suarez’s guile to create an attacking core. However, that may take some time.
On the down side, the youngster was not always healthy with Inter, but he did find a good string of games at Espanyol last season. The Spanish style of play suited the creative Brazilian much more than the Italian style.
On the other side of the ball, Manchester City shipped off Super Mario Balotelli. They have no idea what they will miss now. On the football pitch, Balotelli was a talented goal scorer but extremely unpredictable in both good and bad ways. One day, he may score two. Next day, he would get sent off for something mindboggling.
Off the pitch, Balotelli’s stories were the best. “What’s he done now?” seemingly everyone said with a smile.
Oh Mario, you will be missed…except that AC Milan is playing on Sunday as well. Balotelli will likely play a part, but he does not expect to start. Stephan El Shaarawy and Mario Balotelli are Milan’s partnership for the next decade and Italy’s attacking partnership for the 2014 World Cup.
Milan takes on Udinese, as Antonio Di Natale is third in Serie A when it comes to goals. El Shaarawy is actually one ahead of Di Natale, but Edinson Cavani leads all scorers with 18. He would be more in line with City’s pocket books, wouldn’t he?
Any how, now for the…
Director’s Top picks – Premier League and Bundesliga
I am 6-2 in making my Director’s picks ahead of every weekend for the past six weeks, and I pick with value, so my back roll has increased €463 the past six weeks on those bets. Don’t take my word for it, have a look at my Director’s European football picks for the past six weeks.
This week, I’ve got two new picks, and both offer at least even odds. One pick is for a Saturday Premier League match and one is for Sunday’s Bundesliga match.
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1. Chelsea to win against Newcastle United at St. James’ Park at 2.110
Demba Ba was rested during the midweek, and the striker is fresh to return to the ground he ruled for half of this season. A player taking on his former team provides added motivation, but Ba’s nose, foot, and head for the goal are a level beyond any other striker or player involved in Saturday’s match. Picking Chelsea based on the odds and Demba Ba was enough for me, but the computer appears to strongly agree.
Current oddsmakers give Chelsea a 45 percent chance of winning, but actually, the Blues have closer to a 60 percent probability of winning based on the computer. In other words, the current oddsmakers have Chelsea’s moneyline odds severely undervalued.
2. Borussia Dortmund to win against Bayer Leverkusen at the Bayer Arena at 2.200
Jurgen Klopp’s team getting better than even money against a team not named Bayern Munich? Okay, that’s enough for me. Nuri Sahin is back at Dortmund, and the former captain is not cup-tied for the Champions League, so Dortmund is stronger after January.
Leverkusen is not an easy team to beat at home or away. Leverkusen is actually above Dortmund in the Bundesliga table, and Leverkusen has only lost twice in nine matches at the Bayer Arena.
However, Dortmund has returned from the winter break with two wins and eight goals. Also, Dortmund beat Leverkusen 3-0 early in the season. I’ll take Dortmund. The computer does not find value on Dortmund but it does think that BVB will be the most likely winner. At better than even money, I’ll take that.
