By Tomi Rantanen
Problems at the back hand Burnley a chance for upset
The newly promoted Burnley has not surprised many by managing a win only twice in thirteen matches. However, the Lancashire club has remained unbeaten for the past month, picking up both of the victories in November and drawing against Aston Villa on Saturday. A tight schedule before the Christmas sees a majority of BPL clubs playing already today, only three days after the previous round.
Reminder: For every British Premier League match, AccuScore has Premier League Betting Picks and updated Odds
Up and down rollercoaster that is Newcastle United will visit Burnley at Turf Moor with some serious injury and suspension problems, especially in the defensive end. Midfield powerhouses Moussa Sissoko and Jack Colback will be out with suspensions and no.1 goalkeeper Tim Krul faces the sidelines for up to six weeks. In defense Ryan Taylor, Davide Santon and Fabricio Collocini are long term absentees but also Daryl Janmaat, Massaido Haidara and Mike Williamson are all doubtful for the match, which would leave Newcastle defense depleted and vulnerable.
Here we can see the AccuScore match simulation outcome if Newcastle will indeed miss all above mentioned players from the starting XI:
| Teams |
Line |
Line% |
ACC% |
Goals |
| Burnley |
2.92 |
33.5 |
38.9 |
1.39 |
| Newcastle |
2.67 |
36.7 |
31.7 |
1.23 |
| Draw |
3.29 |
29.8 |
29.4 |
|
As we see here, Burnley has a brilliant chance for an upset here with Newcastle defense considerably weakened by the absentees and especially replacing world-class keeper Krul with not too shabby, but not too great either Rob Elliot.
Here we can see the probabilities if Newcastle would be able to field their optimal starting XI:
| Teams |
Line |
Line% |
ACC% |
Goals |
| Burnley |
2.92 |
33.5 |
34.4 |
1.02 |
| Newcastle |
2.67 |
36.7 |
33.3 |
1.01 |
| Draw |
3.29 |
29.8 |
32.3 |
|
The difference between the best starting lineup and the probable patch-work one is quite remarkable for Newcastle according to AccuScore match simulation engine. Whereas the starters in defense would manage to keep the score low and possibly kill off Burnley’s production, the substitutes filling in are likely to allow remarkably more chances and make the game more open altogether.
Instead of boring, boring Tuesday night matchup, this one might turn out to be entertaining duel with the home team having a slight advantage to pick up the points.
Free 7-Day preview:
Join Now for a FREE trial
