By Tomi Rantanen
Who's the man for Marseille?
In French Ligue 1, the plot thickens on the top of the table, with three teams inside of four points. Third place is manned by Olympique Marseille, who looked almost invincible at around Christmas. Recent struggles have put PSG and Lyon three and four points past respectively and things are heading south for les Olympiens.
Tonight Marseille will travel to visit neighboring Toulouse, a team firmly stationed in the other end of the table. Battling relegation has given Toulouse a much needed kick in the backside, and Marseille better bring their A-game if they’re to grab the points from their rivals.
Reminder: For every French Ligue 1 match, AccuScore has French Ligue 1 Betting Picks and updated Odds
After running several simulations, we spotted two crucial players in Marseille squad, who are absolutely key for their success. The other is – of course – prolific forward André-Pierre Gignac who already has 15 goals under his belt, but the other one might come as a surprise to some: skilled winger Florian Thauvin. The youngster has notched five goals while assisting on seven and provides a constant threat from the byline.
Here’s how the simulations in which the aforementioned duo was replaced by Ocampos and Batshuayi went down:
|
Odds |
Line% |
AccuScore% |
Goals |
| Toulouse |
3.09 |
31.5% |
36.7% |
1.10 |
| Marseille |
2.47 |
39.5% |
31.2% |
1.00 |
| Draw |
3.36 |
29.0% |
32.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
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In this instance the probabilities are very close and it would likely be a low scoring affair with a slight edge for the home team.
But let’s see how it pans out if the duo of Thauvin - Gignac is on the field together:
|
Odds |
Line% |
AccuScore% |
Goals |
| Toulouse |
3.09 |
31.5% |
26.5% |
1.09 |
| Marseille |
2.47 |
39.5% |
46.5% |
1.55 |
| Draw |
3.36 |
29.0% |
27.2% |
|
Adding the attacking duo will tip the scales clearly in Marseille’s favor, even when the probability of Toulouse scoring stays practically the same.
It is very rare to see individual players having such a massive impact, especially when the replacements are not all that bad, but these two productive players seem to be the definition of les Olympiens title hopes.
