The beginning of the season is just around the corner in Italy, among other major European leagues. Juventus has been the sovereign ruler of the Serie A and there seems to be no stopping the giants of Torino. Maybe this is the season someone is able to topple the “Vecchia Signora”?

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According to Accuscore simulations the answer is simply NO. Despite their tumultuous transfer window, Juventus are still clear favorites to reclaim the title. Departure of defensive juggernaut Leonardo Bonucci to rivals Milan was a blow, but Juve is more than capable of filling that gaping hole from within or from the transfer market still open. The team is unlikely complete yet, but nevertheless they’re on top.

Juvenus’ biggest challenge comes from Milan. The lean years of AC Milan are likely to be over and with some great quality signings – Mateo Musacchio, Andre Silva and Bonucci among others – they should be right up there to put up a fight. A continental qualification seems almost certain, but they’re not quite there yet to push Juventus aside from the throne. That other Milan-based team, Inter, has also improved during the summer, albeit not as extravagant as the neighbors.  Inter looked excellent at times last season and have laid the groundwork for Luciano Spalletti to work his magic. If they can keep consistent throughout the season, it just might be they’ll rule at least Milan if not all of Italy at the end of the season.

Next in line qualify to Europe are this seasons Accuscore’s dark horses: Atalanta and Fiorentina. Bookmakers rate them a couple of spots lower than Accuscore simulations. While Fiorentina lost two of their biggest names in Federico Bernardeschi and Matias Vecino, they acquired a great deal of potential in return. With core pieces still in place, Fiorentina could be a force to be reckoned with. Same goes with Atalanta, who can build on massive success last year finishing 4^th in the league. Only losing right back Andrea Conti, while strengthening all the other areas of the team, Atalanta look to be up for the challenge and likely to take the top-6 seeding as their own.

Here’s how the Accuscore’s simulations play out after it’s all said and done:

In order to enable dark horses to succeed, there needs to be a failure as well. In Accuscore simulations the trio of Napoli, Roma and Lazio make way for the new hopefuls. Despite finishing strong last season and fielding almost the similar team, Napoli will have their European dreams mixing the domestic deck. While the simulations indicate Napoli to finish only sixth, the two teams above are within a single point. If Napoli’s conquest of Europe isn’t going well, they might go all in for Serie A.

AS Roma underwent quite an overhaul after last season, with 11 new players in and a couple of important ones out. Also change in management and retirement of Francesco Totti cast some doubt on the “new” AS Roma. They have a quality squad, but also a squad that already had their chance. It might take some time to build for another title challenge, but never count Roma out entirely.

At the bottom Crotone is on its way down after being miraculously saved last season and newcomers SPAL are joining them. There’s a fierce battle for the final relegation spot between Chievo, Benevento and Hellas Verona – and it’s anyone’s game down there.

Accuscore vs Odds

Juventus being such a massive favorite to win, there’s no play there. Other value picks are as follows.

To win – AC Milan @ 7.50

It’s not exactly a likely scenario, but more likely than the odds indicate. Juventus has already taken so many “scudettos”, it might be the time for change. AC Milan has made some huge acquisitions and looked fantastic in European games so far. They are the closest team to win after Juve and odds are great.

Top-4 Finish – Fiorentina @ 13.00

Dark horse from Firenze needs many things to go right in order to fulfill the expectations – but surely it’s more likely than odds of 13! While top-4 might be quite the maximum for “Viola”, they’ll fight for that spot with tooth and nail with their young and potential squad.

Top-6 Finish – Atalanta @ 4.50

A similar season to last year would take Atalanta to top-6 and we’re expecting more. Much like Fiorentina, they’re still considered underdogs against the bigger teams but might beat them just to prove a point. Atalanta’s top-6 finish is more likely than not, so there’s great value here!

All of AccuScore's Italian Serie A Picks