Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Director’s Pick: Derby Della Madonnina - Milan vs Inter

Betting Analysis – Inter Milan versus AC Milan

I am unapologetically an Inter Milan supporter, and no, I am not racist. Consequently, I am also a Mario Balotelli supporter. Therein lays my issue. I genuinely enjoy watching Stephen El Shaarawy, Kevin-Prince Boateng, and M’baye Niang. Also, being an Inter supporter, it is hard to not cheer on Balotelli and Sulley Muntari—former Nerazzuri—while blindly supporting Antonio Cassano—former Rossoneri.

Going blindly off form, Milan has the advantage in my mind. Going blindly off rest, Inter has the edge. The argument is there to be made either way, so I consulted the AccuScore computer to do my work for me. This is when the computer comes in handy most.

Believe it or not, the computer has value on Inter to win and the draw. AC Milan is 42.8 percent to win according to the public odds, but the computer only gives the Balotelli, Niang, and El Shaarawy frontline a 36.6 percent chance to win.

With all that said, I still didn’t feel right about picking either team or the draw.

Instead, I decided to go with the totals...

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The Under 2.5 goals line was offering 2.060—better than even money on an over/under. Usually there is a good reason for this type of line. However, last time these teams met, a Walter Samuel goal was the only score in 90 minutes.

Of the 10,000 simulations the computer ran, 58.9 percent of simulations resulted in fewer than 2.5 goals. Okay, that sounds good to me. Under 2.5 goals in the Milan derby…that’s my pick!

The Milan Derby: AC Milan vs Inter Milan

Apologies to the hundreds of matches being played across Europe this weekend, but the Milan derby is the only match worth a damn this weekend. Forget the form, this is a proper derby.

The Rossoneri are still celebrating their shock 2-0 win over Barcelona in the Champions League, but the focus is squarely on the Derby della Madonnina on Sunday.

Mario Balotelli has turned to the red side and will face the raucous (and racist) Inter Milan home supporters for the first time since joining AC Milan. The former Inter Milan prodigy grew up a supporter of AC Milan, and his recent move to his childhood club of choice has already yielded four goals in three appearances—he has yet to play a match for AC Milan without scoring.

Unfortunately for Milan, Balotelli was not available for the Champions League due to his involvement with Manchester City during the group stages. “Super Mario,” however, is sure to start in the middle of attack against his former club.

Inter, on the other hand, was thoroughly out-played in a 4-1 thrashing to Fiorentina last weekend. Andrea Stramaccioni’s men have only managed two wins since returning from the winter break seven matches ago.

In comparison, Massimo Allegri and Milan have won five of seven following the Christmas break. As a result, Milan is currently in third place and in position to qualify for next season’s Champions League. Inter, however, is only one point back of Milan for a coveted Champions League berth.

As a note, Lazio is level with Milan on points but trails on the tie-breaker, and Fiorentina is two points back of Milan for the final Champions League spot. Juventus is 11 points clear of Milan, and Napoli trails Juve by four points for the Scudetto after 25 rounds.

With Balotelli involved, the Milan derby is can’t-miss television. If one was to make it into the stands, even better. It’s Inter versus Milan, and it means more than the three points on offer—but both teams would be happy with those too. Don’t miss this one!