By Tomi Rantanen
Underachieving Dortmund coping with injuries
Normally a title contender, now battling in the relegation zone Borussia Dortmund has a target on their back. Every team they have previously beaten easily and playfully is ready to put them out and add to the misery of the Ruhr club.
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Dortmund is playing Hoffenheim at home today and could be missing a bunch of key players due to injuries. Defenders Hummels, Piszczek, Sokratis and Durm have all suffered some time on the sidelines, while Marco Reus is a long time absentee. Italian striker Ciro Immobile has suffered from cold and might be out as well.
With AccuScore match engine we can simulate the match more than 10 000 times and see the probabilities of the outcomes of the match. Here’s how Dortmund fares agains Hoffenheim without the injured starters:
| Teams |
Line |
Line% |
ACC% |
Goals |
| Dortmund |
1.51 |
64.9 |
56.0 |
1.96 |
| Hoffenheim |
6.64 |
14.7 |
20.0 |
1.08 |
| Draw |
4.80 |
20.4 |
24.0 |
|
Even without a bunch of starters Dortmund shows quality in finishing while staying solid at the back. However it seems that Hoffenheim is slightly underrated here by the bookers with the likelihood of Dortmund not winning standing at 44%. We can take a look how the AccuScore simulation predicts the outcome if Dortmund would be firing with all the cylinders:
| Teams |
Line |
Line% |
ACC% |
Goals |
| Dortmund |
1.51 |
64.9 |
61.4 |
2.17 |
| Hoffenheim |
6.64 |
14.7 |
18.5 |
1.02 |
| Draw |
4.80 |
20.4 |
20.1 |
|
The full squad would provide higher probability for Dortmund to win, but still the odds are reflecting the home team to be bigger favorites than they should be.
Don’t be surprised if Hoffenheim will surprise the former champions, or at least snatch a draw.
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