Written by Shahan Ahmed
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Week of Dec. 21, 2012

Handicapper’s Top Punts (AKA Director's Top Picks)- Serie A & Premier League

At AccuScore, we always believe in a value based strategy for all our picks. This week, we’re going to take value to a defined formula to come up with the top picks for the weekend across La Liga, Serie A, and the English Premier League.

The strategy for this weekend is defined as such: if there is value on a pick, the probability of the outcome is greater than 50 percent, and the payout is better than even money, we will make the picks. Obviously, I will take into account the current injury state of the teams involved, but ultimately, the computer is making these picks, and I’m just making sure Barcelona isn’t getting picked to lose to Valladolid.

As always, there is one free pick of the week and the remaining picks are for members only. So, if you’re a member: Log in at the top right of the screen to see all picks.

Free Pick of the Week

Queens Park Rangers at Newcastle United: Newcastle United to win at 2.120.

Newcastle is the home team and despite missing some key players in the midfield, the home side has enough quality in attack to overcome some lack of creativity in defense. Demba Ba has 11 goals in the Premier League, and he cannot stop scoring at the moment. Harry Redknapp has done well in the little time he’s had with Rangers, but his team lacks quality defenders. Sacking the manager is only half the problem at Loftus Road. That bring me back to why this pick makes sense: this match is being played at St. James’ Park. Good enough for me.

Also, the computer gives Newcastle United a staggering 61.5 percent probability of winning, which is a bit high in my estimation. The bookmakers put Newcastle at 46.3 percent, so any way you break it down, the computer finds value on a Newcastle win.

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Lazio at Sampdoria: Lazio to win at 2.550
Even with a slew of injuries, Lazio somehow managed to beat Inter Milan last weekend. This time around, Lazio travels to a face a Sampdoria side that has lost four of eight at home this season. The computer gives Lazio a 53.1 percent chance of winning, significantly stronger than the current oddsmakers who have it at 38.5 percent that Lazio will come away winners. The bookmakers still hold Lazio up as favorites, so this pick is still calling on the most likely result to occur. Where there’s value, there is a pick. Hope for Miroslav Klose to repeat last week’s feat. Also, Lazio’s injured defenders still did not stop the Roman side from maintaining a shut out last weekend.