The often overlooked German Bundesliga has been one of the most profitable football series for Accuscore’s customers. There are various reasons why, but one definitely is that there are plenty of surprises and upsets along the way with many young players making their name in the smaller clubs before joining the big boys. Each team is up for the challenge and can beat anyone – except maybe for Bayern München.
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Accuscore’s simulations follow suit with the bookmakers, at least to some extent. Bayern München is once again the top dog, looking for their sixth consecutive title. As their veterans get older or retire, youngsters push through to World stage. There’s only one real favorite once again this year.
Last season’s sensation, runners-up RB Leipzig took the league by storm after being promoted and they don’t seem to look back. With a great system in place, good coaching and talented players they are once again challengers, but can’t compete with the traditional behemoths – yet. Borussia Dortmund will return to their rightful place under the new manager Peter Bosz, who is known to be an excellent nurturer of young, raw talent – which Dortmund’s got abundance of.
Here’s where the disagreement between Accuscore’s simulations and bookmakers start: in simulations, both Leverkusen and Werder Bremen are placed ahead of Schalke, while bookmakers lack faith in Bremen’s fresh look under the young manager Alexander Nouri. They finished last season on a high note after a disastrous start and they’re looking up. It’s likely that Werder Bremen, Schalke and M’gladbach are in contest for the Europa League placements in top-6, while the top-4 is set. Last season’s underachievers Leverkusen will rise from the ashes under new management. Their young stars are more experienced and with the likes of Julian Brandt and Benjamin Henrichs leading the way, Leverkusen is likely to return to Champions League.
Here’s how the Accuscore’s simulations play out after it’s all said and done:
|
Accuscore
|
Team
|
Points
|
Bookers
|
Difference
|
Title odds
|
|
1
|
Bayern München
|
84
|
1.
|
0
|
1.20
|
|
2
|
Borussia Dortmund
|
76
|
2.
|
0
|
7.00
|
|
3
|
RB Leipzig
|
71
|
3.
|
0
|
22.00
|
|
4
|
Bayer Leverkusen
|
66
|
5.
|
+1
|
80.00
|
|
5
|
Werder Bremen
|
60
|
9.
|
+4
|
300.00
|
|
6
|
Borussia M'gladbach
|
55
|
7.
|
-1
|
100.00
|
|
7
|
Schalke 04
|
52
|
4.
|
-3
|
80.00
|
|
8
|
Hoffenheim
|
49
|
6.
|
-2
|
100.00
|
|
9
|
Hertha BSC
|
44
|
10.
|
+1
|
400.00
|
|
10
|
Augsburg
|
42
|
15.
|
+5
|
1000.00
|
|
11
|
Koln
|
40
|
8.
|
-3
|
300.00
|
|
12
|
Mainz 05
|
37
|
18.
|
+6
|
1000.00
|
|
13
|
Wolfsburg
|
34
|
13.
|
0
|
500.00
|
|
14
|
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
32
|
11.
|
-3
|
500.00
|
|
15
|
Hamburger SV
|
30
|
16.
|
+1
|
1000.0
|
|
16
|
Freiburg
|
27
|
14.
|
-2
|
1000.00
|
|
17
|
Stuttgart
|
24
|
12.
|
-5
|
500.00
|
|
18
|
Hannover 96
|
22
|
17.
|
-1
|
1000.00
|
As the top three is exactly the same as the bookmakers, the bottom looks quite different. In Accuscore’s simulations teams fighting for relegation are placed a tad higher in oddsmakers books. With Bundesliga being extremely evenly matched, any of the lower half teams are in danger. However, newly promoted Stuttgart and Hannover seem to have the weakest teams and it will be hard to beat any of the hardened Bundesliga teams.
Accuscore vs Odds
With the ridiculous odds for Bayern to win the title, we’ll look elsewhere for value bets.
To finish top-4 – Bayern Leverkusen @ 3.25
Very nice offer for a team that is used to go to Europe but had an awful last season. Their young squad is only improving and they are looking to impress. The roster is definitely up there in top-4, only question mark is the new manager Heiko Herrlich, who is inexperienced on elite level. Still, good value for top-4 spot!
To be relegated – Stuttgart @ 9.00
Stuttgart is a traditional up-and-down team, riding an elevator between 1st and 2nd Bundesliga. They got up last season, now they’re going down. Stuttgart has too good a team to be playing in 2nd Bundesliga, but they are not good enough to stay up. It’s an uncomfortable limbo and even with a couple of good signings in Holger Badstuber and Dennis Aogo, they still lack the quality and depth needed to stay up. With the amazing odds of 9.00, Stuttgart is an excellent shot!
Longshots
Take Leverkusen to win without Bayern München (aka top-2) with odds of 15.00 and Leipzig with 4.00. Even if Dortmund is the most likely no.2, the odds are too good to pass.
All of AccuScore's Bundesliga Picks
