Written by Shahan Ahmed
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EXPERT PICKS- 2 picks this week (log in to see them)
#1: Parlay: Russia at 1.775 and Germany at 1.781 combine for 3.130
Germany looks too good to expect anything other than a win against Denmark. Russia looked good for the 1st half before getting tired and running out of energy against co-hosts, Poland. With Greece clinging onto life and needing 3 points, Russia should get chances to counter and break, and that's where Russia is at its best. The computer gives Russia a 60% chance of winning, slightly higher than oddsmakers at 55%. However, oddsmakers are only giving Germany a 55% chance of winning and the computer has Germany winning 79% of the time. Do the parlay, and get mak a profit of 213 units on a 100 unit wager.
#2: Poland to win at 2.29 against the Czech Republic
POland faces a worn out Czech side that is struggling with injuries. Poland grained real confidence against Russia and the crowd will be completely behind the home team. With better than even odds to win at home in a vital game, taking the poles is not a bad play. The AccuScore computer finds value in this pick as 56% of sims ended in Poland winning, while odds makers only give the Poles 43% chance of winning. If not for your wallet, do it for the lady below.
Are those handcuffs around her neck?! Suddenly, I want Poland to advance REALLY badly!
8 Things We've Learned from the first 8 Days of Euro 2012
1. Fernando Torres still knows where the goal is:
Fernando Torres is back! Well, let’s hold on a minute. He scored twice and didn’t buckle in front of goal (RONALDO! Ahem! Apologies, something got caught in my throat). However, without attempting to insult a country of great fans, scoring two against Ireland is not necessarily worthy of writing Torres is back in ink. Torres can score goals again, written in pencil.
2. Spain and Germany are a class above everyone else
Pre-tournament, Spain and Germany were the top 2 picks to win Euro 2012, and they are both showing why everyone picked them. Spain rumbled through Ireland to a comfortable and emphatic 4-0 victory. Fernando Torres started as a true striker, replacing Cesc Fabregas, who played as a false #9 in Spain’s opener against Italy. Torres got 2, but Fabregas also came on late to score a powerful shot from a tight angle. Spain looked good, but Ireland’s defense didn’t exist, much like Ireland’s chances in this tournament never really existed.
Germany dominated the Netherlands in a match the Oranje needed to have. Mats Hummel’s partnership with Holger Badstuber took another step forward, as the Netherlands were frustrated time and again en route to Manuel Neuer’s goal. The match ended 2-1, but Germany bossed the match for 70 of the 90 minutes and should have scored plenty more. The two they did put away came by way of Mario Gomez, and both were impressive goals. Gomez has had possession of the ball for a total of 22 seconds during the first two matches, but he has 3 goals, tied for top scorer. (Click Here for Gomez's great turn and goal)
3. France and Italy are not too far behind:
Antonio Di Natale is expected to start for Italy against Ireland
Italy put on an impressive display in the first half against Croatia, following up on a surprisingly strong performance against Spain. Despite Cassano and Balotelli playing together, Italy was unable to get a breakthrough and the duo has drawn a blank for the first two matches. Still, Italy has collected two points in two matches, and Ireland should be an easy victory. Per UEFA, "Italy have to win and hope the other game does not finish in a high-scoring draw of 2-2 or more. If the other game finishes 1-1 they must win by 3-1 or better to finish above Croatia or better than 4-0 to top the group. If the other game finishes 0-0, an Italy win would take them through as group winners." Plenty of drama to come in Group C.
France showed clear superiority in the first match against a strong defensive-minded England side. As an encore, the French completely bossed the match against the Ukraine. With Nasri, Benzema, and Ribery leading the way, France is a quality side. 25 year-old Lille full back Mathieu Debuchy is also making quite the impression at right back. Debuchy stepped in to take over for Bacary Sagna, who went down with a broken leg in May.
4. 3 goals for 3 men – Top Scorers:
Russia’s Alan Dzagoev, Croatia’s Mario Mandzukic, and Germany’s Mario Gomez are all level on 3 goals in the race for the golden boot. During the second round of group play, Gomez scored two sublime efforts (Click Here for Gomez's goal from a tight angle), Mandzukic’s clean touch and finish denied Italy 3 points, and Dzagoev’s shoulder kept Russia top of Group A.
5. Czech Republic is still alive:
The Czech Republic rose from the ashes with an impressive first half against Greece. With a dubious suspension and untimely injury forcing a new center back pairing for Greece’s second match, the Czech Republic saw a weakness and exploited it early. Both of the Czech Republic’s goals came within the first 6 minutes against Greece. Greece would fight back and nearly complete a comeback, but ultimately the Greeks fell short. Now, if the Czechs draw against Poland, they should go through to the quarterfinals.
Czech captain, Tomas Rosicky suffered an ACL injury and had to be subbed off at half time. Rosicky was instrumental in splitting the Greek defense, and he is a doubt for the group deciding match against Poland. After sitting in the first match against Russia, Shakhtar Donetsk midfielder Tomas Hubschman came into the Czech side and played a vital role in passing and breaking up plays against Greece. He will likely feature in the Czech’s plans for the remainder of the tournament.
6. Russia is still a work in progress:
Arshavin tries to shush the crowd so he can sleep the entire 2nd half
In the first half against Poland, Russia looked every bit as good as the team that put the Czech Republic down 4-1. In the second half against Poland, the team was mentally and physically worn out. Arshavin, in particular, faded in the 2nd half. Russia is still top of Group A on 4 points, but the Russian need a confident performance against Greece. If Greece manages a win, Russia’s best case scenario is facing the winner of Group B in the next round, likely Germany. If Greece wins and Poland takes down the Czech Republic, Russia would be out.
7. The Netherlands is a lost side:
The Netherlands can still advance to the next round if Germany beats Denmark, probable, and if the Dutch can win by two or more goals against Portugal, possible. The Dutch, however, are not playing anywhere near the level expected of such a talented and experienced group of players. For a combination of Robin Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder, Arjen Robben, Ibrahim Afellay, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Dirk Kuyt, and Rafael Van der Vaart to score one goal over two matches is inexcusable. They can still figure it out, but to this point, the Netherlands is a lost team.
8. Ukraine is not a June holiday destination:
The Ukraine and France match in Donetsk was suspended due to intense lightning and unbearably heavy rain. This was not an isolated incident, as matches in Krakow and Kiev also featured showers from the heavens. The France v Ukraine suspension was the first time a European Championships match was suspended since 1974. Although the Ukraine has done an impressive job of hosting this tournament, the Ukrainian June doesn’t seem like the best place to start off a summer holiday.
A Look ahead:
On the final set of Group matches, all matches are played simultaneously:
Wayne Rooney returns to England after his 2 match ban
Saturday
Czech Republic vs Poland:
Greece vs Russia:
Every team is alive. Group A was expected to be up for grabs, and it is. No team is guaranteed to go through, so plenty of Drama on offer.
Sunday
Germany vs Denmark:
Portugal vs Netherlands:
Similar to Group A, every team is still alive. This is the group of death, after all. If Netherlands can win by 2 or more goals and Germany win against Denmark, the Dutch would go through. Not probable, but certainly possible.
Monday
Croatia vs Spain:
Italy vs Ireland:
Italy needs goals against Ireland; the Irish were eliminated after two losses in two matches. The striking partnership of Cassano and Balotelli looked sharp, especially against Croatia, but it has not produced a single goal at Euro 2012. As such, Antonio Di Natale appears to be on his way into the starting lineup with Balotelli receiving the axe. Also, Spain and Croatia should be a cracker.
Tuesday
England vs Ukraine:
France vs Sweden:
France is a top quality side and level with England at the top of the group. Even after bossing the match against England, France made two eyebrow raising changes: Clichy came in for Evra and Menez came in for Malouda. Where other managers have been slow to make changes, Blanc did not hesitate to take out an experienced pair of players, and his plan worked to perfection. Menez scored, Clichy combined well going forward, and France cruised to a 2-0 win against co-hosts Ukraine. Also, Wayne Rooney is back for England
Remember, you can see Expert Computer picks for every match at the Euro 2012 Expert Picks page.
