By Pete Kaenmaki

Struggling Serie A side Sampdoria have lost some ground after not winning in five matches in a row. Yet they are still in fighting of Champions’ League qualifier spot. Now they are facing some suspension worries as well. Midfielder Obiang and Soriano are suspended, along with their top scorer, striker Eder. This should be a major blow, when they are travelling to face Atalanta away. But what kind of influence will these absences actually have on the clash in our opinion?

Reminder: For every Serie A match, AccuScore has Serie A Betting Picks and updated Odds

Doria – without the trio

Teams Lines Line% ACC% Goals
After 10,000 simulations Accuscore’s computer tells us that without Obiang, Soriano and Eder Doria are slight underdogs with a 31.3 percent probability to take home all three points. All in all, the match seems to be very low-scoring, which adds the probability of a draw. Sampdoria will net 0.84 goals on Sunday according to our calculations.

Doria – with the trio

Now what would be the situation if the missing trio would be able to start the match after all? Let the simulations roll and decide. With Obiang, Soriano and Eder available Sampdoria would be underdogs with a winning probability of 26.7 percent and they would average 0.67 goals. So, the probability for away win would actually decrease 4.6 percentage points. Visitors would also score remarkably 0.17 goals less with the trio on the pitch.

In conclusion, Accuscore’s computer calculates that these injuries aren’t influential whatsoever.