Written by Shahan Ahmed
October 5, 2012

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El Clasico: Real Madrid vs Barcelona

El Clasico, so often, is the match that decides the Spanish League. In the first week of October, a match deciding the league is hardly a discussion worth having, normally. However, Real Madrid is already 8 points back of Barcelona, and if Madrid loses at the Camp Nou on Sunday night, La Liga isn’t going to happen for Los Blancos this year.

Barcelona is just too good at earning results in Spain to let an 11 point lead slip. Yes, Barcelona could open up a comfortable 11 point cushion over Madrid with a win at home on Sunday. Barring a completely unthinkable collapse by Barcelona, the La Liga trophy would surely be back in Barcelona by season’s end.

However, if Madrid wins this weekend, a five point lead with a head-to-head match at the Santiago Bernabeau to come would mean the league is back on, assuming Real Madrid start winning regularly again, of course.

Although fans in England, Italy, and Germany may disagree, Barcelona and Real Madrid are still the two best club teams in the world. On Sunday, Real Madrid enters the Camp Nou for 90 minutes of Ronaldo versus Messi, Xavi versus Xabi, and Catalonia versus Madrid. Tune in for this one because it should be another classic: el clasico.

Betting Analysis:

Currently, Barcelona is a massive favorite at 1.763 according to bookmakers. Converting the current odds into percentages, AccuScore finds that oddsmakers take Barcelona to win with over 50% probability. AccuScore’s computer disagrees with that and puts Barcelona’s chances to win at closer to 45%.

With Carles Puyol seemingly breaking his arm last week, Barcelona’s central defense is thin. With Abidal still out, Pique not expected to take part, and Iniesta just returning, Barcelona is far from full strength. Compare that with Real Madrid, who had the luxury of resting several regulars against Ajax in the Champions League and still winning comfortably.

European Football Director’s Picks:

Real Madrid +0.5 at 2.050
Better than even money for Real Madrid to win or draw? Yes, please. Cristiano Ronaldo is in top form, having scored two hat-tricks in a row. Can he get a hat trick of hat tricks? Well he’s on a hat trick of hat tricks, so let’s see what happens.

Real Madrid has been up and down this season, and the issue is clearly with motivation, as some of the lack luster performances have come against lesser competition in league play. In the Champions League and in the Spanish Super Cup, Mourinho’s men rise to the occasion. So, as much as this is a La Liga match, this is much more than that, and these players are not scared of playing Barcelona.

Taking a rested Real Madrid to earn at least a draw when they are desperate not to drop any more points to Barcelona against a Barcelona squad that is thin in defense and returning a rusty Iniesta sounds like a good bet to me…and that’s why I’m making it.

AccuScore’s Director of Football went 1-1 last weekend but he still managed a 22 unit profit. His strategy is not based on always being right; instead, he’s more concerned about turning a profit. So far this season, he has an 8-6 record with 379 units of profit. He’s got another pick below for the Milan derby, but that pick is for members only. So, if you are a member Sign in Now to see an expert pick for Inter Milan versus AC Milan: {plus}

Inter Milan - Pick em at 2.190
With a ‘pick em’ option, a draw would return money at no loss, so the only situation where a loss can occur is if AC Milan wins. That is a possibility, and the AccuScore computer tends to believe that is the most likely occurrence, but in my opinion, Inter Milan has a much better team than AC Milan this season. Both teams travelled away during the midweek, but Inter had a much easier time against its opponent. Further, this is technically an away match, and Inter still has a perfect away record this season. I think there’s value here and Cassano will be the difference in quality between these two sides. Note: No Sneijder for Inter this weekend, so Cassano is even more important.