Written By Shahan Ahmed

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Director’s Picks: Chelsea v Liverpool & Rome Derby
– November 9, 2012

Each week, AccuScore’s Director of European football makes expert picks and performs detailed analysis on the biggest matches in Europe. Truthfully, he’s on an 0-4 losing streak, but that streak still has him up +220 on the season. This week, he’s got a preview of Liverpool vs Chelsea and the Rome Derby. Since he’s been a bit off his game, he’s sharing his picks on both matches, but he’s still got 2 more picks for members only. Members, Sign in to see 4 picks

Liverpool vs Chelsea

At 2.010, the computer likes Chelsea to beat Liverpool at Stamford Bridge. Current odds have Chelsea’s probability of winning at 48.7% while the computer puts Chelsea’s odds at 53.8%. Better than even odds and better than 50% chance to double money sounds good to me. Even with a Champions League thriller during midweek, Chelsea is significantly more talented than Liverpool. A win is key for Chelsea to keep pace with United, so the Blues cannot hold anything back as Fernando Torres plays his a match against his old club.

Torres scored during the midweek and is the second most likely scorer behind Juan Mata, if the former Valencia man starts. Hazard is Chelsea’s third most likely scorer. Luis Suarez, however, is the most likely scorer in the match.

Director’s Pick: Chelsea to win at 2.01

AS Roma vs Lazio

The Rome Derby is this weekend. AS Roma and Lazio do battle this weekend with the two teams separated by only 2 points. Roma is able to hurdle over its city rival to 5th in the table with a win. Lazio, however, can retain a European position with a Sunday evening victory at the Stadio Olimpico. Expect some flares in the stands and fireworks on the pitch as Roma matches have guaranteed goals all season long.

The line is 3.25, meaning half the stake is on 3 goals and half the stake is on 3.5 goals. Even with these high numbers, the computer thinks there is value on the Over 3.25. 54.7 percent of simulations resulted in Over 3 and 3.5.

This is a trends based pick. The computer is 3-1 this season when picking Over with matches involving Roma and 4-0 in matches involving Lazio. With a combined 7-1 record when the computer picks the Over for these two teams, the computer likes the Over 3 and 3.5 goals play.

To get an idea of why the computer likes this pick, Roma under Zemen has scored 26 goals in 11 matches, a league best. Also, Roma has conceded 20 times, second worst in Serie A. As long as there are goals on both sides, everyone should be happy.

Director’s Pick: Over 3 and 3.5 goals at 1.860

There are two more Director’s pick for AccuScore members only. Our Director of European football always picks on value, and he’s got two more value opportunities to share with members. Currently, he’s a modest 11-11 in his picks, but he’s still up 220+ units of profit on the season. If you’re not a member, sign in now for a 7 day free trial (your account will be authorized for verify funds upon signing up)