Written by Shahan Ahmed
Follow @perfectpass
September 28, 2012
The London Derby: Chelsea vs Arsenal
After Robin Van Persie and Alex Song were sold this summer, Arsenal quickly became the most scrutinized ‘big club’ in England. However, Arsene Wenger deserves to be, once again, recognized for his astute signings over the past year or so. With Gael Clichy, Samir Nasri, and Cesc Fabregas all packing up their bags last year, Wenger brought in some rather questionable players. Per Mertesacker and Mikel Arteta were immediately written off as desperate buys at the start of last season. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Carl Jenkinson were unknown players that didn’t seem to fit into the Premier League model.
That team of Robin Van Persie, some ‘desperate buys’, and a bunch of nobodies finished third in the Premier League last season. A year on, Oxlade-Chamberlain is one of the most exciting players for the English national team, Mikel Arteta is one of the first names on the Arsenal team sheet, and Carl Jenkinson and Per Mertesacker have started all 5 of Arsenal’s Premier League matches this season. Further, Arsenal’s defense has only allowed 2 goals, tied for best in the league.
Along with last year’s purchases, Wenger also landed Santi Cazorla, a world-class midfielder. Cazorla is not a player who has ever put up big statistics, but he is a special type of talent. He guided and passed Malaga to a top four finish in Spain last season. Against, Real Madrid, it was Cazorla who hit a 91st minute free kick that proved the boy can perform when the game is on the line. With Podolski starting to fire, Arsenal has the right squad to compete for the league this season and next. Considering Arsenal lost Van Persie, Nasri, Fabregas, Clichy, and Song in the past two summers, the ‘in Wenger we trust’ banner should be proudly displayed when this respectable side takes the field on Saturday.
On the other side of the ball is a Chelsea team that has also gone through significant change recently. From Ancelotti to AVB to RDM, the Blues have completely changed managers and philosophies a couple times over. With all the offensive signings and exits grabbing headlines, Chelsea finds itself at the top of the table after 5 rounds due, in large part, to its defense. The Blues are tied with Arsenal as the best defense in the league, and both clubs have only allowed 2 goals apiece to this point.
Images of John Terry driving his Porsche have been played ad nauseum discussing his retirement from the England team and his ban for racism. However, the Chelsea skipper is available to play this match despite being handed a 4 match ban for his racism charge. He has two weeks to appeal, and in the meantime, he is available to play. He will likely accept the charge following this match, and if he does, JT will be forced to miss a meeting with Norwich City, a trip to White Hart Lane, a league match against Manchester United, and a league cup match against the Red Devils.
Although many are arguing that Terry’s penalty was not harsh enough considering Luis Suarez received double the punishment last year, Terry is set to miss some massive fixtures. The Chelsea skipper will certainly feel pain from his ban.
Team News
In any case, Terry will captain Chelsea on Saturday. Chelsea will be at near full strength with only Daniel Sturrdige out with a hamstring injury. New signing Marko Marin returned from injury and made his Chelsea debut in the 6-0 league cup win against Wolves on Tuesday.
Arsenal is still without the Polish goalkeeping duo Wojciech Szczesny and Lukasz Fabianski, but Vito Mannone has been a stable presence between the posts. Bacary Sagna, Tomas Rosicky, and Jack Wilshire remain unavailable, but Wilshire is nearing a return following missing all of last season. Wilshire took part in practice and was assigned to play in a reserve match this week.
Super Saturday European Fixtures
English Premier League:
Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United
Rooney’s back, Vidic is out…and who will Fergie choose in his starting XI?! Oh right, there is that AVB fella, too…
Spanish Primera Liga:
Barcelona at Sevilla
Barcelona travels to Sevilla on Saturday night, and Barcelona is far from full strength. Iniesta, Puyol, and Pique are all ruled out with injury, while Adriano and Busquets are questionable. This means that the Alex Song and Javier Mascherano partnership in the middle of defense may take another step forward or backward.
Sevilla is unbeaten at home this season including a 1-0 win over Real Madrid. In that match, Sevilla was the far better squad, and despite Jose Antonio Reyes not being available to this point, Sevilla has looked a good team in front of the home fans this season. Don’t be surprised if Sevilla hands Barcelona its first blemish of the season.
Italian Serie A:
Roma at Juventus
Roma looked like a team strong enough to challenge Juve at the start of the season, especially after winning at the San Siro against Inter Milan. However, the Romans have stumbled at home. Lucky for them, this match is in Turin. Um, that’s not a good thing either.
Roma has won both its away matches this season, and Juve has not lost a league match in over a season. There will be a streak broken on Saturday. During the midweek, Juve finally dropped points after a 0-0 home draw against Fiorentina. With a Champions League match around the corner, Juve must be cautious not to take its eyes off the opponent in front of it. Roma and Juve are two of the heavyweights in Italian football, and this promises to be an entertaining fixture.
Director’s picks
Last week, I went 2-1 on my picks. The last 2 weeks, I’ve been 5-1, and I only make picks that return even money, better than even money, or close to even money. We’re making smart plays, we're winning, and I’ve got a couple more picks this week. However, this week, both picks are for members only! So sign in now! If you’re not a member, Try AccuScore Free for 7 days!
1. Chelsea vs Arsenal: Pick: Under 2.5 goals at 2.000
Yes, both these teams have the best defensive records in the league, as discussed previously. However, for totals, I tend to rely on the computer. The computer is picking the Under because 53.2% of the 10,000 simulations resulted in the Under 2.5. The computer is 2-0 this season when picking the under with Chelsea. Also, the computer is 1-0 when picking totals for Arsenal at the Emirates. As such, I’m picking the Under 2.5 goals. Also, Under 2.5 goals is offering even money. Think about it this way, if the game has 3 or more goals, at least you got to watch a good match.
2. Inter Milan vs Fiorentina: Pick: Inter Milan to win at 2.220
Inter Milan is winless at home in all competitions this season, but with AC Milan having broken the San Siro curse this week, it’s Inter’s turn to exercise some demons. Even without Wesley Sneijder in the team, the computer gives Inter a 57.9% chance of beating Fiorentina, well above where the bookmakers have it. With both teams having played in midweek, these types of matches give the bigger clubs a significant advantage. A deeper squad with more quality at home with better than even money on offer?! Yes, take Inter Milan at 2.220. It’s good value here. OH by the way, the computer is also 3-1 this season when picking Inter to win with +200 units of profit.
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