Written by Tomi Rantanen
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Big Name Transfers Add To British Premier League title race
Early on the Premier League it looks like Manchester City and Chelsea are again the biggest favorites to take the title. By the time the transfer window slammed shut, other top-four candidates such as Manchester United and Liverpool had made big impact signings who just might be the missing pieces in the championship winning puzzle.
In effort to redeem their reputation and even challenge for the title, Manchester United splashed the cash to sign Angel Di Maria, Falcao, Daley Blind and Marcos Rojo. “Almost champions” Liverpool had a hole of the size of Luis Suarez in their attacking corps, which they decided to try and fill with another talented, ill-tempered individual Mario Balotelli , among few others. And to be fair, let’s not forget Arsenal and Arsene Wenger, who reacted to top scorer Oliver Giroud getting injured by acquiring England starlet, free scoring Swiss-killer Danny Welbeck . Wenger had already taken many by surprise a few weeks before by snapping up Barcelona reject, versatile attacker/winger Alexis Sanchez.
The new signings ought to affect the teams positively, at least in the minds of managers and fans. By using the AccuScore simulation engine we can predict the impact of the newly acquired players and make some comparisons to what could have been. Let’s take a look at the top teams transfer window activities by simulating the oncoming matches from the weekend.
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New players a massive impact on depleted Manchester United
The catastrophe of last season urged the 20 times champions to open up their wallets and make the necessary additions to the inexperienced squad proven not good enough to challenge for Europe. Manager Luis Van Gaal got the players he was adamant on bringing in and now the rest is up to the “Iron Tulip” and his gang to climb up the grave they dug under David Moyes’ guidance.
Bolstering the attacking corps already including Javier Hernandez, Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney did not seem a priority, but when a player of Falcao’s ability was available the Red Devils jumped at a chance. With the service provided by ingenious Angel Di Maria, Manchester United seems to have almost endless options in the attack, providing their injury prone forwards do stay fit. Nevertheless it will be intriguing to see if the exchange of Danny Welbeck and Javier Hernandez to Falcao was finally worth it.
By adding a World Cup finalist defender Marcos Rojo and energetic multipurpose tool Daley Blind, United brought in heaps of experience and filled the obvious gaps in the lineup. It yet remains to be seen how Van Gaal will set his lineup when the full squad is available, but it is likely the experiment with three central defenders and wingback wingers is over and we will see more traditional setup of 4-3-3.
The AccuScore simulation engine gives us a chance to see how these new players affect the probable result of a certain match. Let’s take a look at the oncoming fixture against the struggling QPR. The first picture is from simulation run without any of the new players and the second one is with an updated lineup.
As we can see, and already predicted above, the impact of the new signings for Manchester United is not necessary the addition of Falcao as goal scoring threat but the addition of remarkably talented defensive and all-around players. Now United is able to replace inexperienced and inadequate players in the lineup with much more reliable ones and it shows instantly in the goals conceded column. The simulation also suggests that when fewer goals are scored the probability of Manchester United winning the match goes up. And that’s not all: one of the three ManU strikers was stuck to the bench in the latter simulation.
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Liverpool: Suarez’s boots to fill
Liverpool managed to lose the title by the skin of their teeth last season and now they will have to try again without their best goal scorer Luis Suarez. As the manager Brendan Rodgers has stated, it is impossible for one player to make up for the goals the Uruguayan took with him, but as a whole the team should be able to even out the numbers. Liverpool has also upgraded their defense by additions of Spanish mobile fullbacks Alberto Moreno and Javier Manquillo, as well as surefooted central defender Dejan Lovren who is to replace fan favorite Daniel Agger, who opted to return home to Denmark. Liverpool defense be as solid as ever, but it is the other end of the pitch we are more interested in.
Even after Brendan Rodgers released Southampton from their attacking dynamos Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert, Liverpool still managed to add arguably the most controversial player in the game (right after Luis Suarez, of course). The acquisition of Mario Balotelli raised a few eyebrows around the world, but as Rodgers was quoted saying: “it’s a calculated risk”. ´The trio of Sturridge, Sterling and Suarez was the tip of the spear for Liverpool last season – now it is time to see how well Balotelli fits in Suarez’ boots.
With Suarez gone, the likely replacement before Balotelli would have been Rickie Lambert, a proven veteran of English game and a prolific goal scorer himself, or hot prospect Lazar Marcovic, who impressed last season with Benfica but is unproven at higher stages. AccuScore simulation engine will give us a peek on how Balotelli’s presence impacts Liverpool’s performance in the short term as compared to playing Lambert in his stead.
As we can see, the AccuScore simulation predicts that Liverpool will have no trouble scoring goals (2.99) even without Balotelli. That might be in part because of the lackluster defense of Aston Villa, but the numbers don’t lie. Let’s take a look what happens when Lambert is exchanged for Balotelli:
When we simulate the matchup with Balotelli taking the place of Lambert, the goal scoring expectation of Liverpool stays exactly the same. The probability of Balotelli to score goes through the roof, while other players’ probabilities go down. Lower number of goals scored by Aston Villa indicates that induction of Balotelli also tips the ball possession scale towards Liverpool, which in turn provides fewer chances to Aston Villa. Rodgers calculated risk seems to be a fairly necessary backup, but is it worth it?
Arsenal and Manchester City: Arsene’s Men of Mystery
As far as transfer windows go, Arsene Wenger is normally a massive spoilsport. It seems every other player is linked with Arsenal but eventually the Gunners end up with Nicklas Bendtner and some youngster from France. Not this time though, as Arsene Wenger followed the tradition he started with Mesut Özil and brought in Alexis Sanchez from Barcelona and Danny Welbeck from rivals Manchester United. Welbeck might not be Falcao, but has the potential to shine under the Frenchman’s regime and Sanchez adds attacking prowess that’s been missing since the departure of Robin van Persie.
Many fans were disappointed by the lack of additions to the defense and the bottom of the midfield, and understandably so. The departures of Thomas Vermaelen and Bacary Sagna were covered by the acquisitions of Mathieu Debuchy and Calum Chambers, but no one in their right mind except Wenger can call that exchange an improvement. To be able to keep up pace with the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea, Arsenal will need an awful lot of luck with avoiding injuries to key players and definitely a few breakthroughs from Welbeck and other young prospects.
Arsenal will face a stern test this weekend when the title holders Manchester City travel to Emirates. The hosts are likely to start without Aaron Ramsay, who twisted his ankle against Andorra on Tuesday. By using AccuScore simulation engine, we can predict the outcome of the match and pay closer attention to the individual performances. Will Welbeck be the answer?
The AccuScore simulation suggests that the visiting team will be stronger in this affair and the hosts will struggle without Aaron Ramsay in the lineup. However, Manchester City relies heavily upon Kün Agüero to score the goals, as Stevan Jovetic is out with hamstring problem and Edin Dzeko is looking for his form. If Arsenal will find ways to stop the Argentinian, would City have enough supporting firepower to beat the Gunners?
Without Oliver Giroud, Ramsay and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the goal scoring options for Arsenal look rather thin. This is where unsung hero Danny Welbeck has the chance to prove his worth. And Wenger’s.
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