by Shahan Ahmed 27th January, 2012
In over 3 months since I started my analyst picks series for AccuScore, I am 34-15, 69%, and +2,381 in profit. What is the 2,381 units based on? Well, if you started with 500 units in my 1st weekend of making picks (putting 100 units on each of my expert picks), you would now have 2,381 units in total profit. Not bad, eh?
My method is quite simple, really. I use my experience watching football, study the computer’s top picks and trends, and then, I combine the two factors to make picks. Also, I keep schedules in mind.
This week, I’ve put out 1 FA Cup expert pick for the Manchester United v Liverpool tie from Anfield and 3 Bundesliga picks. The FA Cup pick is a bit different because AccuScore does not cover domestic cups. AccuScore covers the top 4 leagues and the Champions League. Since Champions League doesn’t start for a few more weeks, I’m stepping out on my own on this week’s FA Cup pick. However, there’s value in making this pick, so I had to include it.
Top 4 Picks for the Weekend of 27th January, 2012
1: Schalke v FC Cologne: Schalke at 1.962
According to the computer, Schalke is 59,9% likely to win away to Cologne. Oddsmakers currently have Schalke at 50% to win, so there is value in making this pick according to the computer. The computer is 6-2 when judging value on winning for Schlake with a 700 unit net profit. With all other pertinent trends not providing much insight, this seems to be a value straight play, not a trends play. Cologne lost in their return from the winter break to Wolfsburg while Schalke looked strong against Stuttgart last week.
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2: Borussia Dortmund v TSG Hoffenheim: Under 2.5 or 3
This is a trends pick. AcuScore is 7-3 when finding value in picking the Under with Dortmund and 12-4 in Totals picks overall with Dortmund. Also, AccuScore is 7-2 when picking Under with Hoffenheim, so the trends apply to both teams. Like I said, personally, I would think Dortmund would score 2 goals by themselves & the computer says just that. The computer believes this will be a 2-0 win for Dortmund. This is entirely a computer trends pick.
3: Borussia Monchengladbach away to Stuttgart: ‘Gladbach to win at 2.810
Borussia Monchengladbach are good. They beat Bayern Munich 3-1 last weekend and played incredibly effectively on the counter. They have the quickest and strongest counter attack in the Bundesliga. Stuttgart looked out of sorts against Schalke last weekend, but Stuttgart are a much stronger side in front of their home fans. That is why ‘Gladbach is getting such good odds. AccuScore calculates Gladbach to have a 50.2% chance of winning, far higher than the 35% currently attributed to the team 1 point back of the head of the table.
4: FA Cup: Manchester United v Liverpool: Manchester United to win at 2.860
Liverpool looked good against Manchester City in the Carling Cup on Wednesday, and they’ve been a strong side at Anfield this season. However, they still lack fire power with Suarez suspended. Also, Fergie particularly loves to beat the Reds. United have the good fortune of being rested, and this pick is based on two factors. First, United last played a week ago, while Liverpool played during midweek, so United are the more rested squad. Craig Bellamy has been the spark for Liverpool, but the 32 year-old has played far too much recently. Second, Liverpool have not consistently had it this season, so expecting them to beat Manchester City and United back to back is a tough ask. At 2.86, it’s hard to pass up a Manchester United pick.
Also on the program this weekend, don’t miss Udinese v Juventus in the Serie A on Saturday, Chelsea’s return to Loftus Road for the FA Cup, and Wolfsburg visiting Munich for a date with Bayern.
