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Game Details

MLB
Miami Marlins
0
Pittsburgh Pirates
0

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

N/A

Accuscore Probability

-15
15
-0.5
under
0.5
over
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 37-24, 61% + 1060 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 31-28, 53% + 20
OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 6-6, 50% -60 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 6-6, 50% -60
Money Line
PIT  61.4%
Side Value
PIT  3.5%
38.6%
61.4%
Game Projection
  • Miami Marlins
    3.9 Points
  • Pittsburgh Pirates
    4.8 Points
Big Win
  • MIA
    14.0%
  • PIT
    26.6%
Close Win
  • MIA
    19.1%
  • PIT
    27.1%

Game Prediction

MLB: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 33-38 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 26-42 on the road this season. The Pirates have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Pirates starter Paul Skenes is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins starter Valente Bellozo. Paul Skenes has a 44% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Valente Bellozo has a 25% chance of a QS. If Paul Skenes has a quality start the Pirates has a 78% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 8.2 and he has a 58% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Pirates win 66%. In Valente Bellozo quality starts the Marlins win 63%. He has a 32% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 63% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Paul Skenes who averaged 3.28 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 75% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 71% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Valente Bellozo who averaged 3.13 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 67% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 51% chance of winning.
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Miami Marlins

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Xavier Edwards 4.1 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.02
Jake Burger 4.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 2.2 0.20
Jonah Bride 4.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.6 0.10
Connor Norby 4.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 2.1 0.17
Derek Hill 4.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.3 0.16
Otto Lopez 4.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.03
Cristian Pache 3.7 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 2.3 0.02
David Hensley 3.7 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.3 2.0 0.10
Valente Bellozo 3.7 0.6 2.7 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Valente Bellozo 5.0 3.1 7.2 3.1 1.6 5.8 0.78 0.33 0.52
Relievers 2.9 1.7 3.7 1.6 1.0 4.9 0.38 0.05 0.09

Batting

Pitching

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 4.5 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.08
Bryan Reynolds 4.2 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 1.3 0.19
Joey Bart 4.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.6 0.24
Connor Joe 3.9 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.10
Bryan De La Cruz 4.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.17
Oneil Cruz 3.8 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.18
Jared Triolo 3.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.3 0.08
Yasmani Grandal 3.6 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.12
Paul Skenes 3.7 0.6 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Paul Skenes 5.8 2.5 6.7 2.4 1.3 10.4 0.53 0.53 0.30
Relievers 2.8 1.2 2.9 1.2 1.0 4.8 0.26 0.08 0.08

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Miami Marlins
  • Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Miami Marlins
  • Pittsburgh Pirates
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins RECORD Pittsburgh Pirates RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 26-42, 38% -177 Record at Home 33-38, 46% -713 Miami Marlins
VS Pittsburgh Pirates 0-4, 0% -400 VS Miami Marlins 4-0, 100% 436 Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Team Under .500 16-33, 33% -1395 vs Team Under .500 27-23, 54% 170 Pittsburgh Pirates
Record As Road Underdog 25-41, 38% -156 Record As Home Favorite 18-22, 45% -836 Miami Marlins
When Valente Bellozo Starts 5-2, 71% 456 When Paul Skenes Starts 11-7, 61% 179 Miami Marlins
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins RECORD Pittsburgh Pirates RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 6-6, 50% 288 Record at Home 6-7, 46% -163 Miami Marlins
VS Pittsburgh Pirates 0-0 No Games VS Miami Marlins 0-0 No Games N/A
vs Team Under .500 5-4, 56% 298 vs Team Under .500 6-4, 60% 137 Miami Marlins
Record As Road Underdog 6-5, 55% 388 Record As Home Favorite 5-5, 50% -97 Miami Marlins
When Valente Bellozo Starts 4-1, 80% 442 When Paul Skenes Starts 3-2, 60% 22 Miami Marlins
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Miami Marlins RECORD Pittsburgh Pirates RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 26-40, 39% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 39-32, 55% Over UNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 5-7, 42% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 10-3, 77% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 35-46, 43% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 44-33, 57% Over OVER
OVER-UNDER IN Valente Bellozo STARTS 3-4, 43% Over OVER-UNDER IN Paul Skenes STARTS 9-9, 50% Over N/A
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