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Game Details

MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
0
St. Louis Cardinals
0

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

N/A

Accuscore Probability

 
 
-0.5
under
0.5
over
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Tampa Bay Rays Road Games: 25-22, 53% + 80 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 25-23, 52% -30
OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Rays Road Games: 5-5, 50% -50 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 4-5, 44% -150
Money Line
STL  58.4%
Side Value
STL  17.2%
41.6%
58.4%
Game Projection
  • Tampa Bay Rays
    4.2 Points
  • St. Louis Cardinals
    4.8 Points
Big Win
  • TB
    16.2%
  • STL
    25.0%
Close Win
  • TB
    19.1%
  • STL
    24.4%

Game Prediction

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals are 27-26 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Rays who are 27-25 on the road this season. The Cardinals have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson is forecasted to have a better game than Rays starter Shane Baz. Kyle Gibson has a 33% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Shane Baz has a 21% chance of a QS. If Kyle Gibson has a quality start the Cardinals has a 78% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.8 and he has a 34% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 66%. In Shane Baz quality starts the Rays win 67%. He has a 36% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 67% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Kyle Gibson who averaged 3.29 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 71% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 70% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Tampa Bay Rays is Shane Baz who averaged 3.18 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 68% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Rays have a 54% chance of winning.
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Tampa Bay Rays

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Yandy Diaz 4.3 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.08
Randy Arozarena 4.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 1.6 0.14
Brandon Lowe 4.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 1.6 0.23
Isaac Paredes 3.9 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.15
Amed Rosario 4.2 0.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.04
Jose Siri 3.9 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 2.1 0.13
Jose Caballero 3.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.08
Jonny Deluca 3.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.04
Shane Baz 3.7 0.6 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Shane Baz 4.8 3.1 6.9 3.0 1.8 6.7 0.67 0.35 0.49
Relievers 3.1 1.8 3.7 1.7 1.3 4.3 0.42 0.06 0.09

Batting

Pitching

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Masyn Winn 4.3 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.06
Alec Burleson 4.3 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.23
Paul Goldschmidt 4.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.7 0.17
Nolan Gorman 3.9 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 2.3 0.20
Nolan Arenado 3.9 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.14
Brendan Donovan 3.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.08
Ivan Herrera 3.7 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.06
Matt Carpenter 3.5 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.7 0.15
Kyle Gibson 3.7 0.7 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Kyle Gibson 5.3 2.7 6.5 2.6 1.8 7.0 0.57 0.49 0.33
Relievers 3.1 1.4 3.2 1.4 1.0 4.3 0.32 0.10 0.08

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Tampa Bay Rays
  • St. Louis Cardinals
  • Tampa Bay Rays
  • St. Louis Cardinals
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays RECORD St. Louis Cardinals RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 27-25, 52% 273 Record at Home 27-26, 51% -322 Tampa Bay Rays
VS St. Louis Cardinals 0-0 No Games VS Tampa Bay Rays 0-0 No Games N/A
vs Team .500 or Better 30-30, 50% 52 vs Team .500 or Better 28-31, 47% -158 Tampa Bay Rays
Record As Road Underdog 18-15, 55% 585 Record As Home Favorite 18-19, 49% -568 Tampa Bay Rays
When Shane Baz Starts 2-3, 40% -62 When Kyle Gibson Starts 10-10, 50% -30 St. Louis Cardinals
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays RECORD St. Louis Cardinals RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 6-4, 60% 336 Record at Home 4-7, 36% -367 Tampa Bay Rays
VS St. Louis Cardinals 0-0 No Games VS Tampa Bay Rays 0-0 No Games N/A
vs Team Under .500 3-2, 60% 64 vs Team .500 or Better 3-9, 25% -580 Tampa Bay Rays
Record As Road Underdog 6-3, 67% 436 Record As Home Favorite 2-6, 25% -460 Tampa Bay Rays
When Shane Baz Starts 2-2, 50% 38 When Kyle Gibson Starts 1-1, 50% -4 Tampa Bay Rays
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Tampa Bay Rays RECORD St. Louis Cardinals RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 25-25, 50% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 29-24, 55% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 5-5, 50% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 9-2, 82% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 40-36, 53% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 43-36, 54% Over OVER
OVER-UNDER IN Shane Baz STARTS 2-3, 40% Over OVER-UNDER IN Kyle Gibson STARTS 10-9, 53% Over N/A
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