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Game Details

MLB
Cincinnati Reds
0
Miami Marlins
0

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

N/A

Accuscore Probability

 
 
-0.5
under
0.5
over
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 27-17, 61% + 830 Miami Marlins Home Games: 32-17, 65% + 1330
OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Cincinnati Reds Road Games: 5-1, 83% + 390 Miami Marlins Home Games: 3-3, 50% -30
Money Line
CIN  54.8%
Side Value
CIN  8.7%
54.8%
45.2%
Game Projection
  • Cincinnati Reds
    4.2 Points
  • Miami Marlins
    3.6 Points
Big Win
  • CIN
    22.4%
  • MIA
    13.2%
Close Win
  • CIN
    24.2%
  • MIA
    25.5%

Game Prediction

MLB: Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins are 22-34 at home this season and the Cincinnati Reds are 25-27 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Kyle Tyler has a 32% chance of a QS and Hunter Greene a 33% chance. If Kyle Tyler has a quality start the Marlins has a 69% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.5 and he has a 21% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Marlins win 53%. If Hunter Greene has a quality start the Reds has a 69% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 5.9 and he has a 50% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Reds win 58%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Kyle Tyler who averaged 2.92 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 62% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 59% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Hunter Greene who averaged 3.6 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 79% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 62% chance of winning.
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Cincinnati Reds

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
TJ Friedl 4.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.14
Elly De La Cruz 4.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 2.0 0.14
Jeimer Candelario 4.3 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.14
Spencer Steer 4.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.3 0.11
Jake Fraley 4.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.06
Tyler Stephenson 3.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.12
Jacob Hurtubise 3.6 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.00
Jonathan India 3.5 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.07
Hunter Greene 3.9 0.6 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Hunter Greene 5.4 2.5 6.6 2.4 1.4 8.4 0.58 0.47 0.35
Relievers 2.8 1.1 2.9 1.1 0.8 4.3 0.29 0.08 0.10

Batting

Pitching

Miami Marlins

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 4.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.8 0.15
Bryan De La Cruz 4.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.14
Josh Bell 3.9 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.12
Jesus Sanchez 4.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 1.7 0.14
Jake Burger 3.9 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.14
Nick Gordon 3.8 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.11
Tim Anderson 3.8 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 1.6 0.02
Otto Lopez 3.6 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.06
Kyle Tyler 3.5 0.5 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.00

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Kyle Tyler 5.2 2.8 6.5 2.7 2.4 5.8 0.47 0.37 0.45
Relievers 3.2 1.5 3.4 1.5 1.3 4.9 0.29 0.08 0.09

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Cincinnati Reds
  • Miami Marlins
  • Cincinnati Reds
  • Miami Marlins
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds RECORD Miami Marlins RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 25-27, 48% 166 Record at Home 22-34, 39% -773 Cincinnati Reds
VS Miami Marlins 2-1, 67% 27 VS Cincinnati Reds 1-2, 33% -50 Cincinnati Reds
vs Team Under .500 24-14, 63% 478 vs Team Under .500 12-20, 38% -695 Cincinnati Reds
Record as Road Favorite 7-3, 70% 196 Record as Home Underdog 18-20, 47% 360 Miami Marlins
When Hunter Greene Starts 8-14, 36% -608 When Kyle Tyler Starts 2-3, 40% 48 Miami Marlins
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds RECORD Miami Marlins RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 3-5, 38% -169 Record at Home 4-3, 57% 200 Miami Marlins
VS Miami Marlins 2-1, 67% 27 VS Cincinnati Reds 1-2, 33% -50 Cincinnati Reds
vs Team Under .500 6-5, 55% -21 vs Team .500 or Better 4-8, 33% -215 Cincinnati Reds
Record as Road Favorite 0-2, 0% -200 Record as Home Underdog 4-3, 57% 200 Miami Marlins
When Hunter Greene Starts 3-1, 75% 149 When Kyle Tyler Starts 1-1, 50% 100 Cincinnati Reds
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Cincinnati Reds RECORD Miami Marlins RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 23-27, 46% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 38-17, 69% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 3-5, 38% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 5-2, 71% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 42-36, 54% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 39-40, 49% Over OVER
OVER-UNDER IN Hunter Greene STARTS 7-12, 37% Over OVER-UNDER IN Kyle Tyler STARTS 2-3, 40% Over N/A
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