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Game Details

MLB
Baltimore Orioles
0
Toronto Blue Jays
0

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

N/A

Accuscore Probability

 
 
-0.5
under
0.5
over
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 21-30, 41% -1200 Toronto Blue Jays Home Games: 23-28, 45% -780
OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 3-7, 30% -470 Toronto Blue Jays Home Games: 1-8, 11% -780
Money Line
BAL  60.0%
Side Value
BAL  1.7%
60.0%
40.0%
Game Projection
  • Baltimore Orioles
    4.7 Points
  • Toronto Blue Jays
    3.6 Points
Big Win
  • BAL
    23.9%
  • TOR
    10.7%
Close Win
  • BAL
    27.4%
  • TOR
    23.3%

Game Prediction

MLB: Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Baltimore Orioles are 33-21 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Toronto Blue Jays who are 26-28 at home. The Orioles have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Orioles starter Dean Kremer is forecasted to have a better game than Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman. Dean Kremer has a 55% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Kevin Gausman has a 47% chance of a QS. If Dean Kremer has a quality start the Orioles has a 77% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.1 and he has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Orioles win 63%. In Kevin Gausman quality starts the Blue Jays win 60%. He has a 45% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 60% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Toronto Blue Jays is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who averaged 2.18 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 36% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Blue Jays have a 52% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Baltimore Orioles is Gunnar Henderson who averaged 2.2 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 34% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Orioles have a 75% chance of winning.
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Baltimore Orioles

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Gunnar Henderson 4.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.6 0.28
Adley Rutschman 4.2 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.19
Ryan Mountcastle 4.2 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.15
Ryan O'Hearn 4.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.16
Anthony Santander 4.0 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 1.1 0.28
Jordan Westburg 4.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.19
Colton Cowser 3.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 1.7 0.18
Cedric Mullins 3.7 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 1.2 0.11
Ramon Urias 3.6 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.11

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Dean Kremer 6.2 2.6 5.9 2.6 2.3 7.0 0.78 0.53 0.37
Relievers 2.0 1.0 2.1 0.9 0.8 2.7 0.23 0.07 0.03

Batting

Pitching

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Davis Schneider 3.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.7 0.15
Danny Jansen 3.8 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.17
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3.8 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.19
Addison Barger 4.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.7 0.00
George Springer 3.6 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.15
Justin Turner 3.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.08
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3.6 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.08
Ernie Clement 3.6 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.10
Kevin Kiermaier 3.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.09

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Kevin Gausman 5.9 3.0 6.4 3.0 1.5 7.8 1.10 0.32 0.51
Relievers 2.6 1.6 3.0 1.6 1.0 3.3 0.54 0.08 0.09

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Baltimore Orioles
  • Toronto Blue Jays
  • Baltimore Orioles
  • Toronto Blue Jays
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles RECORD Toronto Blue Jays RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 33-21, 61% 454 Record at Home 26-28, 48% -770 Baltimore Orioles
VS Toronto Blue Jays 6-4, 60% -34 VS Baltimore Orioles 4-6, 40% -167 Baltimore Orioles
vs Team Under .500 28-16, 64% 295 vs Team .500 or Better 36-51, 41% -1504 Baltimore Orioles
Record as Road Favorite 26-15, 63% 308 Record as Home Underdog 6-11, 35% -489 Baltimore Orioles
When Dean Kremer Starts 6-9, 40% -356 When Kevin Gausman Starts 12-12, 50% -236 Toronto Blue Jays
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles RECORD Toronto Blue Jays RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 5-5, 50% -142 Record at Home 5-4, 56% 7 Toronto Blue Jays
VS Toronto Blue Jays 3-1, 75% 47 VS Baltimore Orioles 1-3, 25% -166 Baltimore Orioles
vs Team Under .500 6-4, 60% -51 vs Team Under .500 5-5, 50% -54 Baltimore Orioles
Record as Road Favorite 5-4, 56% -42 Record as Home Underdog 2-0, 100% 190 Toronto Blue Jays
When Dean Kremer Starts 1-4, 20% -305 When Kevin Gausman Starts 4-1, 80% 272 Toronto Blue Jays
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Baltimore Orioles RECORD Toronto Blue Jays RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 33-21, 61% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 31-22, 58% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 9-1, 90% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 8-1, 89% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 45-33, 58% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 32-44, 42% Over OVER
OVER-UNDER IN Dean Kremer STARTS 11-4, 73% Over OVER-UNDER IN Kevin Gausman STARTS 18-6, 75% Over N/A
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